Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

And we never had a DB get sick, now did we?

 

As I noted yesterday, from the video of Trump I didn't see that he was telling people to do xyz. He was turned to the guy who had just talked about the CDC study showing how quick it dies under certain conditions and was spit-balling ideas. "Maybe we should look at doing this.... can you check and see if we are doing that".

 

Seen this, there seems to be some genetic factors with Native Americans. Similar to African Americans higher mortality.

 

Why is Trump up there mentioning pre-trial phase treatments as possible cures? He has no expertise and no business mentioning anything in a pre-trial phase specifically. Had he said something to the effect he's bee made aware of pre-trial treatments that have had initial success, and direct questions to medical professionals that can answer questions meant for experts, that would be one thing. Instead, Trump rambled about somehow getting disinfectants and UV lights into the body, and sounded like an uneducated idiot in the process.

During a pandemic, the politicians shouldn't be front and center. Times like this call for medical experts who truly know what they are talking about. Again, the CDC literally has a handbook that had groundwork laid out during the W. administration, and polished during the Obama administration. Trump and his staff ignored it.

 

I wouldn’t read too much into one run, it has bounced from low 60’s to low 80’s for weeks. Think of it more as a range that will narrow as time goes by, if it starts to go outside that range then it will be more noteworthy.
Deaths in NY have dropped off dramatically the least few days, so we will see if that slides it the other way in their next run.
Of course the great unknown is what all of this opening up by some states will mean. That model still assumes social distancing. A much longer tail that will roll into schools vowing to be open could be disastrous.

 

I don't disagree, those should be closed door conversations. But that's been his style going way back.

Trump hurts himself just as much as he helps himself...nothing new.

 

well since we are at 58000 now, and the newest projection is 74000 by aug4, that is only, and i hate to say only,16000 in 3 plus moths, about 5000 a moth, or 1600 to 1700 a day.

 

I'll treat it like the 3 day landfall forecast for a CAT3 cane...…..

 

What I am about to say has nothing whatsoever to do with politics.

What is the purpose of showing TOTAL CASES everyday? What is the purpose of showing TOTAL DEATHS everyday? To scare people? Is it to keep people focused or what? I am fine with a daily reporting of new cases and deaths which clearly has purpose but why are we keeping a total tally and why is it in our face constantly? Just now watching a major news network the newscaster specifically and solemnly said "today we are over 1 (short pause) MILLION (short pause) reported cases in the United States" followed by a delay, eye roll and a sigh. Seriously? If it were 1 million dead then okay but total cases? Give me a break! Its no wonder people freak out when they see someone walking the wrong direction in a "directional" grocery store. I suggest that we begin reporting every medical condition on a daily basis just to freak everyone out. Lets begin daily reporting of numbers of new cases/existing cases/deaths of cancer/diabetes/liver damage/kidney failure/flu and separate all the different types into subdivisions. This will keep us all on edge throughout our daily lives.

Lets do something completely logical. Lets act like we have sense. Is it not tragic enough to report a positive percentage like 99.7 (example) of Floridians have not gotten the virus or died from it? Think about that...millions get the flu and deaths occur in 6 figures and nobody freezes their lives and we don't see statistics posted on the screen like a morbid ticker of doom. Is it too much for everyone to be allowed to see the positive of life or is there a bigger reason as to why we are being bombed with nothing but negative information. Please don't blame the media because the "experts" are the one's throwing out the "it looks like we will be social distancing for 2 years" crap.

 

it is simple, bad news sells, always has, always will. people stop and look at accidents because of morbib curiosity.

 

The last 3 runs have all pushed it up. Obviously, the model didn't "miss" and it is important to note that, given that people tend to forget that the point estimate is not itself a prediction (and I may have come too close to language to suggest that is was). But it is noteworthy that the model has pushed up 3 straight times from a low point estimate that will likely be met this week. They ran it this morning though, so the New York data is baked in.

 

that model averages its last three runs I think, so the lower numbers wouldn't have as big an impact as they ordinarily might in one output.
I agree on the trend, and just basic common sense kinda says that, we are already pushing 60k with a decent ways to go in some parts of the country. But on the flip side, if other places start to drop off as fast as NY has the last few days the increases are going to slow dramatically, which would be great news and keep the numbers in the lower end of the range.
But again, opening things up is the big wild card. This is all garbage if the model has assumptions that are not correct and extreme social distancing was really what was keeping us where we were. Watch Georgia and Texas in particular in the next week or 2 to get a good idea. Two populous states that are easing restrictions, should be good bellweathers.

 

THIS^^^^^

That's my response to people who want to make hay about people who "may" die if we open things up.

There are things to be done to save millions of lives every year but people aren't calling for Gov intervention to do this or shaming fellow citizens. EX- Alcohol, SMOKING, etc.

 

Are you saying there isn't government intervention or shaming of fellow citizens regarding alcohol and smoking? Or are you saying that we need to do more of this the way we do with alcohol and smoking?

 

I stopped watching the news long ago, but I especially avoid it now. It’s covid 24/7, even commercials are all covid related.
Having said that, I’m a numbers person, all of those numbers are extremely relevant to me and to the larger picture. Total deaths vs total cases (with a dose of percent with antibodies) tells us how lethal it is, how many deaths we anticipate trend wise etc...which should drive all of our decision making. I would also say that those numbers also help to keep the seriousness of it in perspective, for better or worse. So I look at all of that, but I do it on charts only, it’s a lot less mentally draining.
Again, I would stress not spending too much time watching the news right now, it’s just not going to be good for anyone’s mental health.

 

Neither really.

I'm calling out the people that are getting bent out of shape "if one person dies because of opening things up or people not saying home or not wearing masks " (paraphrasing).
The indignation from some is silly, where is the indignation for other causes of deaths? They care if someone dies from COVID but not the other stuff that kills more year in and year out.....

I have the same reaction to the pink ribbon crowd... a far higher % of people die from eating disorders with a similar incidence as breast cancer yet it not even a blip on most peoples radar. I think in pat because some only "care' for show (look at me how much I care).

 

obviously whether you choose to drink or smoke doesn't carry over to me or my grandma.

Not to mention that we have poured tons of resources to curb smoking and before the whole vaping craze fired up nicotine use was way down.

I do believe that advertisement for alcohol should be treated the same as smoking. Zero TV ads, billboards, etc.

 

It's called doom porn. Yeah, It hasn't sunk into people's heads yet that the bulk of our society simply cannot function with social distancing rules in place.

 

Why is one life more important than another..... Playing the part here.

Grandma can stay home and stay safe. That's what I tell all my patients at higher risk. It's what I told my parents as well.

If you or Grandma get taken out by a drunk driver it has some carry over no? About 10k die a year from Drunk driving..

 

This is pretty funny. The government has poured billions of dollars into preventing alcohol abuse, smoking etc. And smokers are shamed relentlessly.