Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

But originally they thought less than 1% had them correct?

 

This looks reasonable.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

So using the death rate you posted earlier .16%, there is potential of another 4080 deaths in Miami/Dade county. 94% =2.5 million

I trust your stats far more than mine. I'm just running the numbers

 

When this thing started to break, the "impossible to control" was how it was presented to me. The idea of social distancing and shutting things down was an effort to prevent hospitals from being overrun (in most locations, this has been successful)...not an effort to eliminate the threat (which would have been a nice side effect, for sure). We knew people would die, we know people are going to die. We all know folks who are vulnerable...some of us may in fact be vulnerable (I have no interest in catching it if I haven't already had it...there are more physically fit specimens out there than myself, that's for sure!). But for the good of the country, I see this as a positive. Just my opinion. Again, my bias is that it was suggested to me that this thing was never going to be under control.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Then why trifle with sarcastic labels? Perhaps you can quote one of the posts of the "experts" or perhaps they presented realistic data possibilities, negating any necessity for mocking them.

 

Can you explain what is wrong with what I said?

Fair enough, if you are starting from the idea that we really can't slow this substantially, then it could be good news. However, I don't think everybody was fully around the notion that we would need to get to herd immunity to stop this. Unfortunately, we will likely have to re-close to stop hospitals from being overrun again, just with a slightly higher infection rate. But just with a little back-of-the-envelope math, if the death rate is 0.16% and we need to get to herd immunity to wipe it out, we are talking about somewhere in the realm of 2,600 deaths in Miami-Dade alone, not even counting probable deaths as I don't think they have done that adjustment down there.

 

Yes, that potential would appear to exist based on the stats.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

I am not mocking data. I am mocking that any of us in this forum are "experts".

 

I think it would be prudent to monitor social behaviors to make sure that we are not finding ourselves in a position to let hospitals get overrun. That said, I think we can let things open up here and there and observe what happens and make adjustments accordingly.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Where in the world did I say there was? I mean what the heck man?

 

no, not every week would have the same issue.if I under report the last day of the week, and then overreport the next day, first day of the next week, those 2 weeks are messed up.if I then report the right information from then on each day, each week would be right.

 

I mean, sure if literally every single person gets it.

 

We're all on the same team here, we just have different ways of observing what is happening around us. To some extent, we may have a different way of experiencing what is happening around us. Take in what we all have to offer, leave aside what you don't think is applicable or otherwise biased. The stresses we have here in HOGTOWN are different than those in Dade and certainly much different than those in NYC area. This impacts everybody differently for sure. Be kind, and try to find peaceful ways to go about it with one another.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

NYC is currently already had .18 percent of their population die from this, if you include the probably cases. And that is with 21 percent infected based on their numbers, so and implied CFR north of .9. And that with many of those infected still in danger of passing away.
The Santa Clara study puts the death rate at less than .1 percent.
The Miami numbers put it at .16.

For all three of those studies, no one followed up to see how many of those who tested positive later got symptoms or worse. We also don’t know what antibody level you need to not be infected again and whether the tests account for that, whether the tests are picking up other viruses or not all strains of this one, and whether the studies are accounting for the shut ins who are less likely to participate and are more susceptible to serious symptoms.

But more generally, tying yourself exclusively to any one of those numbers says more about what you want them to be than what they are.

 

Not much is being talked about with respect to the viral load. Back in March, there was talk about whether how much of the virus you were initially exposed to might have an impact on how hard it hit you. I haven't seen much on that topic lately, but I also don't recall it having been refuted. Could it be a factor for the NYC area? I don't know.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

That came up here a few days back when the mortality rate in NYC was noted to be much higher than NY state as a whole.
Viral load may play a part in that.

 

Case and death rate comparison to H1N1 & 2018-2019 flu. Includes four studies/antibody testing result numbers extrapolated nationally (ignoring all statistical and methodological limitations).

Edit
Table to include H1N1 for full year. Also edited the days for Covid-19 (=95) based on a Jan. 22 first case/death.

 

This will become an issue again as we learn more.

 

Definitely seemed like a sarcastic shot taken without having to back it up.