Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

New high in cases nationally sadly, almost 36k with a few more likely to trickle in.

 

The rest of the Harvard article:
The Flu Likes Cold, Dry Weather
For many years, it was impossible to test these hypotheses, since most lab animals do not catch the flu like humans do, and using humans as test subjects for this sort of thing is generally frowned upon. Around 2007, however, a researcher named Dr. Peter Palese found a peculiar comment in an old paper published after the 1918 flu pandemic: the author of the 1919 paper stated that upon the arrival of the flu virus to Camp Cody in New Mexico, the guinea pigs in the lab began to get sick and die (4). Palese tried infecting a few guinea pigs with influenza, and sure enough, the guinea pigs got sick. Importantly, not only did the guinea pigs exhibit flu symptoms when they were inoculated by Palese, but the virus was transmitted from one guinea pig to another (4).

Now that Palese had a model organism, he was able to begin experiments to get to the bottom of the flu season. He decided to first test whether or not the flu is transmitted better in a cold, dry climate than a warm, humid one. To test this, Palese infected batches of guinea pigs and placed them in cages adjacent to uninfected guinea pigs to allow the virus to spread from one cage to the other. The pairs of guinea pig cages were kept at varying temperatures (41°F, 68°F, and 86°F) and humidity (20%-80%). Palese found that the virus was transmitted better at low temperatures and low humidity than at high temperatures and high humidity (see Figure 1).



Figure 1 ~ Experimental Setup. Guinea pigs were housed in adjacent cages. Guinea pigs in cage 1 were infected by Palese with influenza. Palese observed how many guinea pigs in cage 2 became infected from the guinea pigs in cage 1 at different temperatures and levels of humidity. B, C) Transmission rates were 100% at low humidity, regardless of temperature. At high humidity, transmission occurred only at the lower temperature.

However, Palese’s initial experiment did not explain why the virus was transmitted best at cooler temperatures and low humidity. Palese tested the immune systems of the animals to find out if the immune system functions poorly at low temperatures and low humidity, but he found no difference in innate immunity among the guinea pigs (5). A paper from the 1960s may provide an alternate explanation. The study tested the survival time of different viruses (i.e. the amount of time the virus remains viable and capable of causing disease) at contrasting temperatures and levels of humidity. The results from the study suggest that influenza actually survives longer at low humidity and low temperatures. At 43°F with very low humidity, most of the virus was able to survive more than 23 hours, whereas at high humidity and a temperature of 90°F, survival was diminished at even one hour into incubation (3).

The data from these studies are supported by a third study that reports higher numbers of flu infections the month after a very dry period (6). In case you’re wondering, this is only the case in places that experience winter. In warmer climates, oddly enough, flu infection rates are correlated most closely with high humidity and lots of rain (6). Unfortunately, not much research has been done to explain these contradictory results, so it’s unclear why the flu behaves so differently in disparate environments. This emphasizes the need for continued influenza research. Therefore, we can conclude that, at least in regions that have a winter season, the influenza virus survives longer in cold, dry air, so it has a greater chance of infecting another person.

Although other factors probably contribute as well, the main reason we have a flu season may simply be that the influenza virus is happier in cold, dry weather and thus better able to invade our bodies. So, as the temperature and humidity keep dropping, your best bet for warding off this nasty bug is to get your flu shot ASAP, stay warm, and invest in a humidifier.

Hannah Foster is a PhD candidate in the Molecules, Cells, and Organisms program at Harvard University.

For more information about the flu, check out this video:

References
1) Medical News Today. What is flu? What is influenza? What are the symptoms of flu? < >[2 November, 2014]

2) Centers for Disease Control. The Flu Season. <The Flu Season | CDC> [2 November, 2014]

3) Elert, E. 2013. FYI: Why is There a Winter Flu Season? Popular Science. <FYI: Why Is There A Winter Flu Season?> [2 November, 2014]

4) Kolata, G. 2007. Study Shows Why the Flu Likes Winter. New York Times. <Study Shows Why the Flu Likes Winter> [2 November, 2014]

5) Lowen, A.C., S. Mubareka, J. Steel, and P. Palese. 2007. Influenza Virus Transmission Is Dependent on Relative Humidity and Temperature. PLOS Pathogens. 3(10):e151.

6) Roos, R. 2013. Study: Flu likes weather cold and dry or humid and rainy. University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. <Study: Flu likes weather cold and dry or humid and rainy> [14 November, 2014]

 

Pa. removes 200 deaths from state coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, accuracy

Pa. removes 200 deaths from state coronavirus count as questions mount about reporting process, accuracy

Earlier this week, Pennsylvania started to include “probable deaths” in its fatalities. As a result, the total number of coronavirus deaths grew by 276, then 360, in successive nights, almost doubling the number of deaths in the state in two days. The Pennsylvania Department of Health (DOH) subsequently removed 200 deaths from its count after facing mounting questions about the accuracy of the count.

Health Secretary Rachel Levine spoke to the Philadelphia Inquirer about the initial decision to include probable deaths, as well as the decision to later remove those from the count.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE

A “probable death” is one that a doctor believes is caused by COVID-19, even though the patient is never tested for the virus.

Levine clarified that both spikes in numbers due to “probable deaths” included deaths that occurred days, even weeks earlier.

The discrepancy initially came to light weeks ago when coroners reported that their numbers did not match what the DOH reported.

 

also tested almost 225000, 2nd highest day ever

 

Wow, I mean, I don't get the antibody studies at all. I want to believe, but man, just seems off.

 

Yes, my friend, I know you choose your words carefully (I wasn't attacking you fwiw, just responding to one point, though one I clearly didn't read closely enough. In my defense I have about five excuses about why I didn't, but I'll save the excusifying for another day

Still, the notion that it would be an overreaction to some would miss why this is treated as such a serious public health threat in the first place. I think when people use the flu to play it down, they further mangle well-founded reasoning by public health experts.

 

I think we should establish a baseline of agreement. We all want the economy opened as soon as possible with as few deaths as possible.

You must have data to determine those factors. It is clear that the exact infection rate and death rate are not exactly known. What is equally clear is that we must listen to the best minds in this country to calculate those numbers. countering reason and science, which is admittedly inaccurate, with a void is not a solution. In other words, though the exact numbers may not be known the best estimates of experts are far better than pundits or people on the streets uneducated opinions.

The REAL concern and limitation is the lack of testing and coordination in this country. This is a life/death situation with huge economic implications, which demands leadership based on the best scientific and economic minds in our federal government and Industry.

I don’t worry about people on this board arguing about death rates or other such technical issues. Reminds me of fans second-guessing Coach Mullens calls (although, the carelessness and avoidance of facts of some may kill innocent people). What I worry about is the people making the decisions on politics and not basing them on facts, science and and provable information.

 

Many human pathogens (virus and bacteria) can live at lower temperatures, but thrive at around 98.6 degrees F. But once temperatures climb above 101 degrees F, the pathogen struggles. Things get too hot for it. This is why a fever is often the immune response to getting sick. It's the body's way of fighting off the disease.

There is also the humidity effect on heat, as humidity causes a change in pressure. It's why a pressure cooker can cook things in minutes that could take hours in an oven. For example, when it's 85 degrees outside with 90% humidity, it feels closer to 102 degrees according to the heat index calculator.

What the guinea pig experiment showed that outside the body, in lower temperatures, pathogens live longer and therefore, have a higher chance of infecting someone. At higher heat and/or humidity levels, these pathogens don't last that long. So a virus on an outside door in winter could be there, viable for hours in the winter, but only minutes in the summer. And in Phoenix in the summer, when it's 115 degrees outside, nothing survives for that long!

 

Thought I'd throw this in here rather than start a new thread:


YouTube Is Cracking Down on Coronavirus Misinformation



BY CARL CAMINETTI / APRIL 24, 2020 12:55 PM
As the coronavirus continues to spread throughout the world, so too does harmful misinformation about the virus and how to treat and prevent it. In an attempt to slow the spread of unsubstantiated COVID-19 claims, YouTube is banning any content that contradicts the pandemic guidelines from the World Health Organization.

In a statement, YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki said the ban will consider “anything that would go against World Health Organization recommendations” a violation.

“So people saying, ‘Take vitamin C, take turmeric, we’ll cure you,’ those are the examples of things that would be a violation of our policy,” she told CNN.

In addition to scrubbing the platform of phony medical advice, YouTube has announced it will also be taking down any videos promoting the bizarre conspiracy theory linking the COVID-19 pandemic to 5G cell service.

YouTube Is Cracking Down on Coronavirus Misinformation

 

for what it is worth, worldometer reported only 1942 deaths today, with only a couple of small states left to report, good news if true, but with them, who knows.

 

Final days numbers
New cases +38,474 / New deaths +1,942 158 deaths per million

 

on reason for the big case number today, yesterday pennsylvania only reported 161 new cases, today 3096, and people wonder why some of us are sticklers for accurate counts.

 

I literally said the deaths happen with or without testing. Verbatim.

You are saying I ignored them when I literally said they are happening.

I cited one case of a man that died from multiple heart attacks.

Like I said, you are just looking for a fight. Your quote here doesn't come close to proving your accusation.

 

+/- ...as in positive or negative test results. If 5000 people died of pneumonia in NYC and 82% tested positive and 18% test negative, then I think you could then take the unknown pneumonia cases that were not tested and extrapolate the tested percentages and assign 82% to COVID-19. This would likely be more accurate than 100% assignment.

 

Here is what I said:

Here is what you said:

You weren't saying that we were missing deaths without testing. You were saying that the deaths were mostly being counted in response to me pointing out that deaths were following testing, suggesting that we were missing deaths.

 

Kind of dumb to declare 4 months out. Classes might very well happen, but who knows where things will be then, especially if we open up too quickly.

 

That assumes similar disease progression and also that other people aren't dying for other reasons beyond pneumonia.