Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Easy to count a death because there are symptoms and signs that point to an outcome....you know death.

Hard to count an unconfirmed recovery when it was never confirmed as being sick in the first place.

 

Everything should be counted. Everything.

Epidemiologists need complete and accurate data. Deaths, antibodies, CV tests, everything. That’s how you measure recoveries, infected minus deaths over time.

Not counting deaths is particularly egregious because it doesn’t leave a trail to come back to study treatments, pre-existing conditions, and add to the completeness of the data. This thing is here for a while.

That’s how the Santa Clara Medical Examiner was able to go back and determine that two early February deaths were from Coronavirus.

 

The term recovered does not mean feeling fine. You can have antibodies and still be contagious. That study gave no indicator of how contagious the population is nor how widespread the contagion is. It does show a more true death rate that is lower than some suspected (I've maintained that I believe it would probably end up being closer to 1% when we had more data) but still a deadly virus worth the measures being taken.

 

Yes, other studies do not change the flaws in the Stanford study.

 

like i said, if they have the antibodies, it does mean they had it right?

 

So is today’s information that NY has Estimated 2,700,000 cases good news or bad news ? And why

 

It could also mean they still have it, this not being recovered

 

have you been testing stroke victims for covid?

 

i agree, but to get a full view, all cases must be counted, deaths and recoveries, even if both were never diagnosed, and if all active cases do eventually get counted, i think the death rate will be around 1%.

 

Good news: Death rate is lower, herd immunity could come sooner (but a lot of people will still end up dying)
Bad news: this thing spreads like crazy and more people will die.
No news: we still don't know how long the antibodies last

 

fantastic as in 7x deadlier and more infectious than the flu fantastic or fantastic that it is under 3%?

 

so 10x more than the flu...no disagreement but still wondering about home deaths not tested and stroke related victims not tested

 

I think it's more dangerous to just start handing out presumed recoveries since these people could still be shedding the virus. The dead people can be sorted out later as they no longer pose a threat.

 

Fantastic that it is way under 3%.

 

So what the updated mortality rate ? How did we get the numbers so wrong ? Seems these studies are coming in that far far more people have been infected.

 

people are hung up on death rate numbers, right now we have 150 deaths per million population, how low do you really think, given thousands upon thousands who most likely had it and were not confirmed, 20-30 per million, maybe less.

 

Numbers weren't wrong they were under informed.
New virus, could only use models based off of other viruses. As more information on covid comes out the models have better predictors to use.

 

We got them wrong because we never tested widespread enough to know the true answer. Experts from the very beginning have presumed the mortality rate was between 1-3%. I figured it was closer to South Korea's 0.9% than 3%. We were all screaming for massive testing from day 1 but the CDC botched it. We still need so much more info the get a real idea of what's going on. Massive studies including COVID tests and antibody tests.

 

I found myself watching a rerun of the women's National Cornhole Championship on TV last weekend and finding it exciting. What has happened to me? #ImissGatorBaseball

 

Right, which is why we need insane numbers of testing right now. That's going to help get us all back to normal the most since a vaccine is likely far away.