Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Ormond Beach.

 

Your mortality rate is based on what rate? NY seems to have a much higher mortality rate....

 

Was wondering if you were in Volusia county. I live in Ponce Inlet but lived in OB for about 45 years.

 

If that is the case, then coronavirus is 7 or 8 times more deadly than typical flu.

 

Love Ponce Inlet.

 

13.9% is the state avg.
21.2% in NYC

something else I found interesting:

 

No, those aren't the only options. You stay closed until at least when the IHME model suggests your state can safely re-open and utilize the time to set up systems to keep people safe. BTW, from a purely economic perspective, that has some significant benefits from the fact that customers will come out to a much greater extent if you provide them with a system in which they are protected better.

The way to a depression? Re-opening too early, having another big outbreak, having to have the entire country retreat to their houses again, and now they don't trust going out again for an even longer period of time. You are trying to prevent the long-term damage with a short-term measure that will potentially increase the long-term damage.

 

I don't think every elderly person would need delivery just the ones that don't have any one to help. Family can do that drop of on the porch.

The issue is this? Does the entire country have to stay shut down to protect people who are much higher risk for higher morbidity and mortality just because those people wont stay home?

I live in an area with a fair number of elderly, and I may have skewed observation's but 70-80% of who I see out are over 60, and I'm not talking about at the grocery store. I'm talking about at 7-11 buying lottery tickets, I'm talking about at home depot buying mulch, paint etc.....

At what point do we tell everyone stay home and lose everything because the highest risk people decide they want to go out and about?

 

I grew up in Ormond. Represent!

 

Yeah that's a tough one. You can't really protect those that refuse to stay inside due to sheer boredom.

 

it also doesn’t take into account the numbers that are already sick who will pass away, or those who tested positive who have t shown symptoms yet. We also don’t know whether the antibody test is picking up and other corona virus’s someone may have had. So I reality in it higher, how much is up for debate,

Having said that, it’s still one study in a broader picture. This isn’t any more definitive than the Stanford study is.

 

I am not sure that the mortality rates on the NY/NJ population will transfer evenly across the country. Obesity, hypertension, and diabetes rates seem to have a big impacts on the death rate. I am optimistic that those existing conditions are in higher % of people in the NE than the country on average but I could be way wrong.

 

Way higher numbers for all those things in the South.

 

The south & midwest are much fatter than the rest of the country.

 

It was random so that it puts it ahead of the Stanford study. other points are legit

 

We have 48 thousand dead in the US so far. We need about five times more people to get the virus in order to get to herd immunity. Five times as many people would lead to about five times as many dead people. This is all just back of the envelope estimating, we need 70% infected for herd immunity, that's a little less than 5 times what New York has so far, but nationally we are probably lower than that, so we'll call it even. Somewhere in that ballpark.

 

Stocks quickly cut gains after report says potential Gilead virus treatment flops in trial

 

Roughly 15,500 people across the state have died so far, he said, adding that the state’s deaths are going to continue to rise. It also doesn’t include people who’ve died at home, which has become a key factor.

umm...yeah...didn't know they weren't tracking and assigning COD for them. are there numbers on those that have died at home? don't they all have to have COD listed?

 

Thanks, I was wondering what was causing the sudden drop in the market.

 

Also saying this is from the China study not the US study