Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Pretty similar % to the Stanford numbers many are discrediting.

 

We will be at 50,000 deaths by this weekend. We had as many deaths yesterday as Canada has had in total. In fact yesterday’s total alone would put us #12 in the world.

 

Still limited tests available in Arizona. Only enough swabs for those in hospitals. Have the symptoms but not critical yet? Not likely to be tested.

Going to be difficult to reopen the economy when you can't isolate the sick because they can't be identified until they have been sick long enough to need hospitalization. Sure, the heat will help in the deserts, but plenty of Arizona at elevation where temps never crack 90 degrees. And plenty of people in Phoenix and Tucson visiting the high country to escape the heat before returning home.

 

It is many of the same authors. Hopefully, they utilized better data collection methods on this one.

However, the two curves are pretty substantially different. Assuming a normal and symmetric curve for both estimates, the expected value of the Santa Clara study was over 60% higher.

Edit: Looking into their sample, it is difficult to tell if it is currently better because their sample came from a "proprietary dataset." It might be or it might not be. The authors have stated that going forward they want to test 1,000 random people per week in the county. That would be good, although it still wouldn't eliminate the other, slightly less obvious problems, such as the false positive rates of the test. At least it would get to the level that you can call it a study that is reasonably professional in its data analysis.

 

The bigger the finding the more intense the critique of the method gonna be. Given current circumstances, this should not be unexpected.

I don't see their findings overcoming the flaws and given them, it's better to remain skeptical (after all this study hasn't even been through peer review and the more I read the more I am unsure it will make it).

 

The site I linked has every country. I didn't mention any just copied the page that the US was in.

 

May this fact be repeated every half hour of each day during all news cycles between now and November 3rd.

 

Point 1: Canada SHOULD have fewer deaths per million. They have about the same population density as Wyoming. The UK SHOULD have more deaths per million. They have about the same population density as New England states. It makes sense that the more dense the population, the more deaths per million.

Point 2: Please don't misinterpret the musings above as support of Trump and their handling of the situation.

 

Not sure if this has been linked or discussed, its a good thing and shows what some have been say all along. Most who get it don't get very sick.....


"When an outbreak of coronavirus in a Boston homeless shelter prompted officials to do more testing, the results caught them off guard. Of the 146 people who tested positive, all of them were considered asymptomatic.
"These are larger numbers than we ever anticipated," said Dr. Jim O'Connell, president of the Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. "Asymptomatic spread is something we've underestimated overall, and it's going to make a big difference."
O'Connell said Thursday that across the country medical professionals have just been looking for signs and symptoms in homeless people. While Boston aggressively tested residents at a second shelter after the asymptomatic findings, the city is considering what to do next, he said"

"Then, two weeks ago, the Boston Healthcare for the Homeless Program noticed a small group of people had tested positive for the coronavirus at a shelter in the city's South End. To be safe, they coordinated with the state government to do universal testing of the shelter population over two nights. Out of the nearly 400 guests tested, 146 tested positive for Covid-19, according to O'Connell.
"This caught us unprepared, but the even more surprising finding is we screened all of them, and none had a fever, and very few had other symptoms," O'Connell said"

36% positive rate.....

Asymptomatic coronavirus cases at Boston homeless shelter raise red flag - CNN

Locally our numbers have bumped a bit completely because the local jail has an outbreak and a few nursing homes have an outbreak. Bad when it gets into a nursing home, some in hospice evidently tested positive before they passed. Still low overall number here.

 

Exactly, that's been the pattern higher population density more cases.... ie NYC/Miami
Question is why a higher mortality rate in NYC, some is over reporting of covid deaths.

 

Just like false positives, there are also false negatives to consider...
Devil is in the details of the accuracy of the test being used.... Some of the critics of the Santa Clara study leave out that like fact.

 

The good news is that all these people who are being found to have been exposed never got sick enough to need hospitalization or even see a doctor.

THAT'S A GOOD THING.

 

Lets pull NYC out and see where the numbers stack up.
Lets also make sure that COVID cases aren't counted as COVID because they are presumed to be and not proven...it benefits the HC system to have some die from COVID they are getting lore money to treat COVID patients.

Even the NY times ran that story last week.

 

You are getting a little taste of what the peer review process can be like. It can be brutal (just ask me). Claims need to be supported by a well designed (even peer reviewed) study incorporating a valid sampling regime - one that stands up to scrutiny - and appropriately rigorous analysis and claims that do not exceed what the data support. This is why most scientists are so careful and conservative with their claims and why the public often wants to take them and run far beyond what was actually proved.

Person: Hey, look at that black cow up there!
Scientist: I see an animal appearing to be a cow that is black on at least one side.

 

My BIL is suffering from gallstones and kidney stones and has some significant pain as a result and you guessed it - won't be able to have surgery until mid-May at the earliest as it is classified as "elective".

 

You know exactly what's coming next. All these tests are no good, unapproved and inaccurate. Can't upset the narrative.

 

Totally agree with point #1. The pathetic thing is it seems no one in the WH had the understanding/forethought to take steps in Jan. to mitigate. So here we are.

 

Pretty telling that you have to even include this disclaimer.