Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

while I cannot really ans your questions, none of the numbers are right for various reasons.

 

Its here

 

Knowledge is power!

 

Look at the ages of the patients. That tells me there are likely others that are younger and not showing symptoms.

 

China? Hell no they are not trustworthy. That doesn't mean they haven't slowed the virus due to their lockdown. But I wouldn't take their numbers as gospel. Or even as meaningful. Especially now that it's been let loose essentially everywhere. I wonder if we even got more of the virus introduced out of Italy or off cruises than out of China, that seems to be the case.

South Korea I would think trustworthy, and they have a lower mortality rate likely (using non-medical professional layperson common sense) because they are capturing more "mild" cases in their robust testing. It is still 5x deadlier than Flu though, even with their "good" numbers.

Not sure what is going on in Italy and why they have it so bad, obviously they are showing there is more risk to this and that even if China has it slowed, globally it is not contained.

 

Our parent company just banned all international travel and all domestic travel is now strictly limited to only the most important/dire travel.

I got a laugh that they had to send out a second clarifying email that those already on trips were allowed to travel home.

 

Most likely hospitals following CDC testing guidelines that were updated today. Before, the only way to qualify for testing was to either have a recent history of travel and showing symptoms or be over 60 and in critical condition. CDC opened that up a bit today with this:

 

Our data has probably been more worthless than China's up to this point. But hopefully now it will catch up a bit. That is assuming more availability to test = rapid increase in cases, but if you have rapid increase in cases without mortality then that supports that at least it's more "flu-like" than some other countries situations would indicate.

My feeling has been that there's no way there's just clusters of 1 or 2 people. LIke you have 1 "repatriated" person in an area, and 1 person that picks it up from "unknown". Do we really think there's only 1 other infected carrier they caught it from? No way. There must be dozens or a hundred+ wherever there's one. But if we don't hear them showing up at hospital ICU's in greater numbers I take that as good news. The next couple weeks should really determine where we are at.

 

Interesting reporting just broke on CNN broadcast about a case in Washington with no travel ties. They were able to trace the viral properties back to a case six weeks prior in Washington. They believe there could be as many as ~500 “shadow” cases that bridges the two.

 

That's what I've been guessing for awhile. When the experts were talking about it having a very high R0 value, this is what they meant. It spreads fast. If it's here and a couple people in a county have it via community transmission, there's basically no way in hell those were just isolated cases.

That would be both good news and bad news. Good news, that maybe it's mortality isn't the highest/worst case scenario, might even be much lower than South Korea would indicate. Bad news, that it's gaining a serious foothold as a disease/illness here and would be impossible to eliminate going forward. So every year we might be dealing with this thing on top of whatever the annual flu strain is.

 

Damn, CNN is behind then. I read that scientific study a week ago.

 

Well, it may be that I’m the one behind. The story was more about how the Federal Government really dropped the ball even with a private lab begging to work with the government. The reporter had been looking into for the past week or so. Guess I just missed that news story.

 

It is true that Obama himself didn't declare an emergency until after 1000 dead, but to say or imply the Obama administration did nothing until 1000 died is demonstrably false.

As for numbers, Italy has an older population than most countries. It would skew the death numbers since we know the most vulnerable are people over 70.

In the US, the total infected number is underreported, as we don't have enough tests to test everyone we should. The story in Washington state is proof.

 

I live in the Jacksonville metro area, but don't come here for the titty bars. They suck up here!!! Miami would be the place to go to one, at least it was when I lived there.
You've brought back some good memories of my younger days. Thanks for your response!!!

 

You want strippers in the White House? Hmmmm. I'll get back to you later on this, ok?
New Edit For This Post: Maybe I'll choose a stripper for my running mate!! And strippers for some other positions too (no pun intended, yeah right!!). That way my campaign or myself wouldn't have to pay any of them for their silence about me!!!

 

Yelp does reviews of strip clubs? Great googlymoogly!!!

 

*cough cough* Dale Mabry in Tampa. So I've heard.

 

Trump allies got coronavirus tests despite lack of symptoms and shortage

Trump allies get tests even though they don't meet CDC guidelines.

 

asking for a friend ?

 

And that 500 estimate was as of March 2nd. There are many more than that now. 8 days after Italy hit 500, they were at 4000. 8 days after South Korea hit 500, they were at 3700. But both of those countries have been serious about testing and quarantining, while we've been out buying toilet paper and propping up the stock markets.

Some cool science behind that estimate:
https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/