Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Assuming you are right: an RO rate like the flu, there has been no immunity and there is no vaccine. That is why so many dead in 6 weeks. And it is a lower respiratory infection.

 

the numbers we have are a 5.76% death rate on confirmed cases while he is claiming 1.9% of people testing positive. that is a big difference in apples to apples comparison. how doe she justify 1.9% when the national reporting agencies are saying it is 5.76%. he must be using a different number for number of deaths

 

Truer words have never been spoken.

 

Covid Christians As Rich Young Rulers | The American Conservative

 

Looking at IHME, it’s looks as though they’re projecting deaths to fall off as quickly as they rose, fitting on to a nice bell curve. Unfortunately that hasn’t been the case anywhere else.

 

Not the flu. Others have covered it exquisitely why not; no need to rehash.

 

Honestly why does this hurt your feelings? Trump doesn't post here. He calls people names and bullies constantly. He's fair game imo.

 

Good Lord, man! How many times does it need to be explained?

 

I said, If their numbers (Which are very limited) so far prove right. It would equate to 56,000,000 infected.
I did not say it would be that. I said IF those numbers panned out. Did you read their report that up to 80x the number of people may be infected in their region due to antibody results? As @Mutz pointed out, there are many factors, but that is pretty big news if it holds up in other places.

 

Good Lord man. You haven't explained it to me, because I have not been the one saying it. I said IF the antibody results end up being true.
If 60,000,000 people had the antibodies (which is the study extrapolated nationwide), the death rate would then likely be flu-like. Heck we have Harvard scientists saying it is less than 1% already.

 

Thanks for the snarky response, but again. Look at the antibody resuts. I was not saying this IS like the flu. I am saying if the antibody numbers from Santa Clara proved to be similar nationwide, then the death rate would be like the flu, because if 60M people have the antibodies than the death rate is pretty darn low.

I never...not one time...said that the numbers WOULD extrapolate accurately, or that this IS like the flu.

I only said that if the antibody study results translated everywhere, then that would be huge.

Do YOU care to take the studies numbers of those who carry the antibodies in Santa Clara and (known cases multiplied by up to 80), while using the existing number of deaths and tell me what the death rate is/might be in Santa Clara?

 

It isn't the flu because:
A) The R0 is much higher
B) Has the seasonal flu ever killed almost 40k in 60 days?
C) We have no natural immunity
D) There is no accepted treatment (although a few have promise)
E) There is no vaccine.
F) To achieve herd immunity we need at least 60% to be infected. Even with a mortality rate of 0.1% the numbers would make me sick to my stomach.

I do know you personally are coming from a place of optimism and hope and not conspiracy/politics though. I definitely hope this ends up having flu like numbers and no 2nd or 3rd wave.

 

Yeah that IHME model seems very unrealistic to me. It shows deaths dropping to 0 by mid June.

 

If it held up, it still wouldn't be the flu. It would have an R0 of about 3x the flu. It would also have a higher death rate with "only" 56,000,000 infected.

But again, none of this appears to match the disease spread here. If we had 56,000,000 infected, you would not see variance in per state deaths from 15 deaths/million to 873 deaths/million in large states with major metro areas unless we happened to be sitting on tens or even hundreds of thousands of undiagnosed deaths. Do you think that low death states, who would need a fair amount of infection, are sitting on minimum 20K unreported deaths? If so, then the death rate is dramatically underreported. If not, then those numbers don't match what we are looking at in the country.

 

But we do have a clearly stated rule against it, so yes EVERYONE...please follow the rule.

Thanks.

 

Ah, ok.

 

posted the above before i saw your response, sorry for the name calling.

 

This is the thing. I agree with you. I haven't questioned any of this. I make a simple comment that 60M infected would give us a death rate similar to the flu. I NEVER...EVER...said that was the case. I agree, there are not 60M infected, but I also doubt that people at Stanford expected to see a 50%-80% increase due to antibidy results.

 

Fine with me. As long as we are respectful to each other.

 

For clarity, I was speaking specifically about death rate.