Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

The current number of Covid-19 related deaths since the first death seven weeks ago has now surpassed CDC death estimates for the 2018-2019 seasonal flu (flu season lasts roughly six months, but is technically a year round issue),

Covid-19= 34,667 (48 days)
Seasonal Flu= 34,157 (180 days)

 

So you're saying it is just like the flu?

 

Haven't you been paying attention?

It's what I've been arguing since day one! I knew before everyone this was just like the flu.

 

So my demographic just turns into hermits and untouchables, banned from the public for...?

 

Phase 1

how do you open a restaurant and still maintain only a group of 10 people?
how do you open an arena and maintain only a group of 10 people?

workers alone would/could make up the 10 person limit

 

NFL teams will huddle but one guy has to stand off to the side. Probably the fullback.

 

The line splits would need to be two yards across. And, tackling will be interesting.

 

Well, if they had the TE flair out wide there would only be 10 at the line of scrimmage if the QB is under center. If the QB is in shotgun then the defense could blitz one guy, to maintain the 10 number. That's if the defense is running a 4-3 and not a 3-4.

Now that I think about it, I'm really into this.

 

And, on defense, Grantham specializes in social distancing coverages!

BTW; 2004 UF-FSU game is on ESPNU now. I turned off the presser.

 

Emory and Henry the entire game

 

My favorite part of number trutherism: I dealt with the consistency nationally this past weekend by citing the Law of Large Numbers. Now, we get to deal with a lack of understanding that more localized numbers are random walks that are likely to have substantial variance.

Sometimes, when you flip a coin 20 times, you get 15 heads. Sometimes, you get 15 tails. Sometimes you get 10 of each. Randomness is not uncommon at a local level on a daily level. That randomness should itself be somewhat symmetrically random. So you should see some variance but not huge amounts on the national level. On a local level, you will see more variance.

 

More than likely the smartest one.

 

Can you point out the model that projected 1.2-1.5 million deaths with either social distancing in general or stay-at-home orders in particular?

 

i said the numbers were quoted before any measures were put in place, so yes measures have worked, but still the initial estimates were way off, given they started from ground zero, had no real model to work off, not even italy or spain at that time.

 

Models predicting 1-2 mil can't be said to be way off if they didn't account for mitigation measures. And though it can't be proven that we'd hit 1-2 mil without mitigation, history has shown us that an uncontrolled virus spread can in fact kill tens, even hundreds of millions.

 

How in the world would you know they are off? Do you have access to a world in which we didn't do social distancing?

The models essentially relied upon the R0 that was discovered on the cruise ships and the death rate from the early infections. I have seen no evidence that the projected death rate or the R0 is systematically wrong.

 

He knows because of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

 

If this is entirely true it goes beyond the realm of malfeasance.