Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Yeah, our gov said the same thing. Now, he is an idiot but those are the rules.
Unfortunately, the trail systems I run and ride are closed by the county. As was noted above, there are a couple of harder trails that rarely get used.
With most of the trails being closed everyone is funneling to the few that are open so I will not be hitting those soon. I have some remote ones by me but I won’t hit those alone so we will see.

 

Give up my blood?

What happens when they find out Duchen is the cure?

 

I think I'm going to stick to riding around the neighborhood and giving people a wide berth. The sidewalks and grassy areas haven't been too crowded.

 

As for driving, hiking, etc, I think people are over thinking this. The point is to distance yourself from people and try not to touch a bunch of shit out in the public. Outdoor activities are fine if you are following distance guidlines. Stay out of crowded places and avoid as much contact with public places as possible. If you want to lock yourself in your house that's fine. I just took the wife and baby on a nice 2 hour walk.

 

That will be a tough analysis to reach a conclusion with US data. There are 5MM plaquenil prescriptions in the US and 300K confirmed cases of Covid-19. Assuming uniform probability of each with a 325MM population in the US, there's a 1.42012E-05 probability of a plaquenil user contracting Covid-19, assuming it's ineffective. Compare that to 0.0 probability if it is 100% effective. If even one plaquenil user has the Covid, it blows your null hypothesis out of the water. If zero patients have the Covid, you still have insufficient evidence.

At this point, I think you can take a similar position about amputees with epilepsy.

 

Dr. Oz is known for pushing pseudoscience.
Physicians urge Columbia to drop its "unacceptable" affiliation with pseudoscience promoter Dr. Oz

 

Yep. There’s currently no proof either way so what Trump suggested could correct. The one thing trump misspoke about was z-pack and heart problems. He should have said the malaria drug.

 

Yes he does this for ratings. He knows better and it's a damn shame.

 

If I had a few porsches just hanging out in my garage...

I get that. It makes sense. It's controlled, not a whim. We go for walks every day around my neighborhood. My issue was with her publicly encouraging people to go by trying to set up the hunt since such a generalized encouragement will almost certainly lead to at least some bad decision-making by people. Just didn't need to occur. Still, I felt bad for arguing with her, then again, not so much.

 

Why assume uniform probability? People with autoimmune disease tend to be far more cautious than most.

 

And they are far more susceptible. If you have an alternative statistical approach with alternative assumptions, please... please enlighten us. I seriously cannot wait!

Edit: Sorry for the tone. I chose uniform probability because it allowed for a simple probability conjunction which most people can understand. I felt it was safe because of the many assumptions required for the analysis, some of which are contradictory.

Your "more cautious" assertion fails as a consideration in the math because the efficacy of a drug for cautious people that don't get the disease is undefined. That's like trying to measure the efficacy of malaria drugs on people that don't have malaria.

Note that my scenario was for all people taking drug for which the lupus folks is less than a third. So it gets complicated. Given that some of the drug takers have autoimmune disorders, you would expect them to be overrepresented in the confirmed cases given the current testing constraints (mostly serious cases get tested). Counter that with my suspicion that autoimmune folks have a much different age density function than the general population.

A later, more definitive evaluation would be to do antibody tests on the plaquenil users.

 

That seems like a bit of a problem. There's no proof chocolate doesn't weaken the coronavirus, but I would hope Trump wouldn't assert it does without scientific evidence.

 

Stop it, Mutz. Jeff's Porsches can't hold a candle to your gorgeous rakes and lawn mower in your garage.

 

Not proof but interesting article suggesting Hydrochloroquine is very effective.

Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro

 

I went on a hike yesterday and all but one person observed a safe distance. He was running and we happened to meet at a muddy area, I pulled off to the side..he laughed and said “sorry I’m not going through that” and came around past me.
Otherwise no issues. It is weird how obsessive it can get though. I hike a lot, but suddenly became aware of how many things you touch along the way - rocks you climb over, branches you scrape or grab on to in steep places etc. Same ones everyone else would be touching for sure. Certainly didn’t stop me or anything, just amazing how we look at things so differently than we did a month ago. Was a nice respite though.

 

Belongs in the humor thread,

 

from what I can tell about you, you need to ditch the cruise and just fly into anchorage for a 2 - 3 week trip around what I call real Alaska. The cruise tours the trench and all the small towns along the way but I equate it somewhat to going to Miami/Ft Lauderdale or Disney and saying you went to Florida. I would love to live up there from May till September but don't think I could handle the darkness during the winter. PM me with your email if you want a sample itinerary with links to some of our favorite things to do. MIL lives in Wasilla (just outside Anchorage) so we visit every summer.

 

my slip with the wrong carrier name...

 

Those people are an embarrassment to the human race. People are dying because of them.

 

The one thing? The one thing? That literally made my beer go down the wrong way.