Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

I thought I tried to make it fairly clear of a modified herd immunity where you have as many infected as possible without overwhelming the medical community. It is way too early to be touting certain strategies. We can look back in a year from now and make a much better determination.

Do you believe there will be any cities in the United States where the medical community will be completely incapacitated like it was in Italy? Not strained, where makeshift hospitals have to be set-up like in NYC with Javits and the USNS Comfort, but to a point where an individual will be left to die without any care at all? I guess you can probably tell that I do not as there are ways to expand the capacity of the number (to 2 or 4) of people on a ventilator (i would do this for those in minor distress). What data I have not seen is what is the average number of days someone is on a ventilator? So you will have some rotation of ventilators as well. With that said if I was a hospital admin or government official I would be scrambling as well due to the uncertainty of what lays ahead. It is much easier to sleep at night if you already had an overabundance of ventilators and PPE on hand instead of having to receive things as you are running out.

 

Or an assessment seemingly at odds with reality.

 

Is the general right? Is the federal govt handing supplies over to private companies who jack up the price and sell it to the the states?
Or did I misunderstand?

 

Not just at the airport, pretty much every public place has someone taking temperatures at the entrance, if you have a fever you don't get in. My parents were there (and Hong Kong) about a month ago and were shocked when they came home and we weren't doing any of that.

 

I interpreted the situation the same way that you did. In Trump world, the Federal government shouldn't be competing with private suppliers even if it means price gauging at the expense of states that need ventilators and other equipment.

I remember when it was the role of the federal government to prevent price gauging rather than facilitating it.

 

Another tool in the flatten the curve goal:

Yale study finds self-isolation would dramatically reduce ICU bed demand

 

as long as you stay in your car, what's wrong with driving around?

so would shutting down the NYC subway system.

 

Doubt that's going to help Shreveport much.

 

China is demanding national assets for collateral on loans they know are sure to fail. Oil, ports, airports, rail lines, minerals...all will become possession of China. They are taking over countries without firing a shot while bribing the officials that are supposed to be responsible for securing good deals for their country. King gets a billion, China gets an airport or seaport or rights to a big chunk of country's natural resources.

 

Japan may not be best example. Tokyo could be on their way to being the next NY as they did not move fast enough. Still not on lockdown as of today

There are fears a coronavirus crisis looms in Tokyo. Is it too late to change course? - CNN

As of Friday, Japan had 3,329 confirmed cases and 74 deaths.
"The beginning of the burst of the infections in Spain, France, Italy, New York City -- was really like Tokyo right now," said Iwata.
He says there needs to be more testing.
As of Friday, Tokyo had tested fewer than 4,000 people in a city of 13.5 million. And just 39,466 people had been tested in this nation of 125 million, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare.
That's a tiny fraction compared to countries in the region and around the world. As of Friday, South Korea -- which has a much smaller population than Japan -- had tested more than 440,000 people.

 

If everybody just drove around like normal you end up with completely pointless car accidents that could use up resources.

Edit: Ok, the car accident angle was dumb. I've seen the error in my thinking. Thanks @NavyGator93

 

The fact that you haven't seen the data is not my fault. Governor Cuomo has repeatedly explained the data.

 

This may deserve its own thread, but I am going to also post it in the Florida thread. I am not sure the appropriate place.

I was randomly selected as one of the initial 750 people for testing today.

I agreed, of course.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241750556.html

Miami-Dade hopes to plot the local spread of the coronavirus through a wave of blood tests that can detect the antibodies produced to fight COVID-19. Researchers say the data could offer the best look yet at people who caught the disease but didn’t know it.

Automated calls to recruit participants could begin as early as Friday, with blood collected early next week. The random “surveillance” testing of 750 people weekly is designed to identify clusters of local spread and measure the extent that COVID-19 has already spread through the Miami-Dade population.

While the disease can be deadly for some and hospitalize even more people, it also can produce symptoms mild enough that people may not realize they have recovered from it.

People can’t volunteer for the free test, but will be selected randomly based on age, where they live and other demographic information. The project is expected to last about six weeks.

Gimenez’s office released a script from the recorded message from the mayor that would-be participants will hear.

“Our community is facing an unprecedented challenge as we grapple to stop this global pandemic. Now, I need your help to stop the spread in Miami-Dade County. That’s why I’m calling you,” Gimenez says, according to the script. “I’m asking you today to participate in a groundbreaking program designed to determine, through free screenings, how many people in Miami-Dade County have been exposed to this virus.”

The test kits were made by BioMedomics, a North Carolina company that recently announced a COVID-19 blood test that has not been reviewed by the federal Food and Drug Administration.


Gimenez’s office has not yet publicly released agreements with providers of the tests. Gimenez said each test costs the county $17, and that Miami-Dade has secured 10,000 BioMedomics tests from a Florida company, Disaster Management Group.

The effort makes Miami-Dade one of the first governments in the United States to launch widespread surveillance testing for COVID-19. In Colorado, San Miguel County on Friday announced the results from its first round of blood tests, and it found just 1 percent of its residents tested positive for the disease.

By measuring antibody levels, the tests can detect the likelihood that someone has either recovered from COVID-19 or is suffering from it at the moment. But because antibodies are produced after someone contracts the disease, the tests won’t detect the virus in its earliest stages the way a nasal swab would.

But with the swab tests backlogged and rationed across the country, researchers see the blood, or serological, tests, as the best alternative for rapid and broad looks at how far the coronavirus has spread. Gimenez said the survey could let the county see which communities need more focus or testing resources.

“Our goal is to get a snapshot,” Gimenez said in an online press conference Friday. “Let’s say we find there is a very big cluster in a certain part of Miami-Dade. Maybe we have to take more action in that area of Miami-Dade.”

WHY HERD IMMUNITY MATTERS FOR COVID-19
Participants will be notified of the results, and told if the tests suggest they may have COVID-19. The FDA says blood tests shouldn’t be used alone to determine whether someone has the disease.

The most encouraging numbers could come from participants who show signs of past infection. People who have recovered from COVID-19 are believed to be immune to the virus, and a large number of them in Miami-Dade would inch the community closer to “herd immunity.”

That’s a state where so many people have already caught the virus that COVID-19 would have a harder time finding new host bodies to spread to. Medical providers also see promise in using plasma from recovered COVID-19 patients to treat people gravely ill with the disease. On Friday, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, one of the first people in Miami-Dade known to test positive for the disease, donated blood for that effort.

In his press conference, Gimenez said he predicts a significant number of participants in the surveillance study will come back as COVID-19 survivors.

“I expect we’re going to find a ton of people who had no symptoms whatsoever and were already infected,” Gimenez said.

 

I am wrestling with the same question. I’m planning a solo hike on Monday. Me, alone in the car, to trailhead thence by myself up the trail and back and no need to stop for gas or food. Is this OK? I feel like it’s fine but hear nothing but STAY AT HOME

 

I'm sure the hike would be safe for you but what if an accident occurs while you are driving there or back? Personally I believe it's selfish to drive anywhere unnecessary when we are being told to stay home. I do understand the conflicting ideas though.

 

Stay at home is a method of limiting interactions that can advance the spread of the virus. If you’re not interacting with someone, you’re compliant with the intent.

We walk our dog around the block. We’re compliant.

 

Early reports on this couple did imply or even state they were Trump supporters. I didn’t pay it much mind what their affiliation was just that they may not have thought eating aquarium cleaner as a health food supplement all the way through.

 

Here is the quote:

"Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. You know that, right? Coronavirus. They're politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs, you say, 'How's President Trump doing?', 'Oh, nothing, nothing.' They have no clue, they don't have any clue. They can't even count their votes in Iowa, they can't even count. No, they can't. They can't count their votes. One of my people came up to me and said, 'Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia.' That didn't work out too well. They couldn't do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over, they've been doing it since he got in. It's all turning, they lost. It's all turning, think of it, think of it. And this is their new hoax."


There are a lot of words there but it is clear he is saying "this" - the corona virus - "is their new hoax." There is nothing else he could be referring to. If he did not call it a hoax, what was he referring to as a hoax in your opinion?

Of course the whole thing is absurd when you consider many of his other flat out lies and abject ignorance:
- Asked if he "worried about a pandemic" in late January, he said “No, not at all. We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”
- While speaking about the first cases of COVID-19 reported in the U.S. at a White House news conference on Feb. 26, he claimed that "pretty soon" there could only be one or two people affected. “We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people,” Trump said. “And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.”
- ‘You can call it a germ, you can call it a flu, you can call it a virus, you know you can call it many different names. I’m not sure anybody even knows what it is’
- ‘It’s going to disappear. One day it’s like a miracle – it will disappear’
- ‘Anybody that needs a test gets a test. We – they’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful’

You can say he was downplaying the pandemic to keep 3 million Americans from dying, but then why wasn't he getting test kits ordered and mobilizing the military and governments on this? If he thought 3M Americans would die, maybe he should, you know, DO something.

He did call the virus a hoax, has repeatedly downplayed it, never listened to experts, has us woefully behind the 8 ball - and has always focused on one thing - the effect this has on his chances in November.

 

Nobody took it seriously at first I'm sure. That's what I am seeing here in Florida. Most people just aren't slowing down and that is sad.

 

'Protective bubbles': How 2 Army generals stopped the spread of coronavirus among their soldiers

Two generals who acted responsibly. Their troops are relatively covid free. Others not so much