Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

to quote Oddball from the classic Kellys heroes movie " enough with the negative waves baby "

 

Any thoughts why our mortality rate is so low of all the first world places this thing is spreading?

 

Even though he blocks me, a I pray to G-d for a rapid recovery for his daughter. Would someone pass this along for me since he blocks me?

 

Medical care and the system is not completely overrun now.

 

I’m guessing average age of those that tested positive.

 

Ummm....



Best comment I saw: They’re going to need a bigger boat.

 

:funny:
:facepalm:

 

The worst case scenario of between 1 and 2.x million deaths wasn't just "throwing stuff against the wall", that would be simple math for an epidemiologist, assuming that society does absolutely nothing to respond. All they need to do is look at the mortality rates on the ground for where the infections are active, calculate the estimated spread based on what they observe on the ground, and they have their number of deaths. X*Y^R0=z.

What is much harder for them, is to calculate the result of "social distancing". Which is somewhere in a huge range between doing nothing, and doing a total shutdown. How much does social distancing change the R0 factor which goes into the X*Y=z calculation? If we did a total shutdown and had 100% compliance, then the last deaths would be those who are infected right now or re-infected by their family members in their own homes, and with 100% compliance the whole thing could be over in a month. Obviously we are not doing that and it's impossible to expect 100% compliance. We aren't getting R0 to 0. So they do actually have to "guess" how effective social distancing is going to be, and just a few decimal points can have huge implications when you are talking about an exponential equation. We aren't "winning" until R0<1.

 

I’d like to think a lot of it has to do with our healthcare system. I’m certain that not having to make triage decisions (yet) has helped.

 

My girlfriend is a nurse practitioner who is now strictly working the tents of those in respiratory distress. She tries to be as careful as possible so that she does not end up being quarantined.

 

Appreciate the time you have spent putting this together. Noticed that Florida is sliding down the list since March 24th. Any thoughts that maybe the heat is already at work helping to slow it down?

 

I also live with a health care professional. However, because they don't go into the COVID rooms they basically don't get any protective gear at all. Only people working on COVID patients get special masks. So I feel like they have similar level of risk just from being there, perhaps even worse risk because this hospital (that shall not be named) has done some very stupid things that are truly amazing to me. People doing things that already brought COVID into the hospital (3 cases confirmed based on 1 person's stupid travel, and another person that is a technician works for Instacart on the weekends... which means going into grocery stores over and over again... HELLO!!! A person who works at a hospital in any capacity should not be doing that. When I heard that I couldn't believe it. They also told me they rode the elevator with someone who was later tested positive, which obviously has us on highest alert.

 

So true. You have no idea who is or is not carrying the virus. I would not be surprised if a bunch of the doctors and nurses were infected in late January and February by people with flu-like symptoms who came into the clinics. My girlfriend said there were quite a few who tested negative for the flu. It will be interesting when they get tested for antibodies.

 

279 deaths in NY today.almost 550 total nationally today, with Washington still to report.

 

Ugly start to the week

 

25 days ended with a total number of deaths from 1-1,000 in the US
3 days ended with a total number of deaths from 1,000-2,000 in the US
2 days ended with a total number of deaths from 2,000-3,000 in the US

This week looks like it will be quite bad.

 

Great movie.

 

Damn

 

Prayers for Bill and their family!