Something tells me his model doesn't anticipate the UK breaking its "pseudo lock down" after 2 days. And if you did your research, you'd realize that the original model included scenarios where the UK took action that had far lower casualty numbers. Do you trust the National Review? Coronavirus Pandemic: Neil Ferguson Didn't Walk Back His COVID-19 Predictions | National Review A narrative rocketed around social media earlier today: An Imperial College study said that COVID-19 could kill 500,000 Brits, but in recent testimony, Neil Ferguson, the head of the group behind the study, put the number below 20,000. Clearly the lying alarmist was walking back his ridiculous predictions! Well, no. The paper actually offered simulations of numerous scenarios. The one resulting in 500,000 deaths was one where Great Britain just carried on life as before. Other scenarios, where the country locked down whenever it was necessary to stop the disease’s spread, put death totals below 20,000. (See the rightmost death columns of Tables 4 and 5.) ---------------------------- (Somebody posted this earlier. Can't remember whom to give credit.)
It's logical that as more asymptomatic people came in contact with more people that eventually you would get epicenters of infections. Look where the heavy cases are now? NYC (huge population density area, huge international travel lots and lots of people without symptoms passing it around). Seattle - big international travel from Asia. LAX- Big international travel from Asia.
If there's any better proof that the man isn't there mentally, it's his comments last night and the actions of his admin (to shelve the GM deal) versus his unhinged tweets this morning.
NY up to date numbers per Cuomo presser: 44,635 positive 6481 currently hospitalized 1583 ICU (+290 from yesterday) 2045 discharged (+528)
FL, CA and TX seem to be bucking that trend and that big Orange County area in CA had one of the first confirmed cases in the country after WA.
The way to know is look at who did total lock down and look at demographics. Areas with more sick elderly should have higher death rates. Compare similar demographics adjusted for age and illness to locked down areas and non lock down areas. Still hard though because there are "soft" lock downs. Varies county to county. State to state.
I'll say what I've said for weeks, the sick and old need to stay home. The young need to avoid the sick and the old until a decent treatment comes out. We don't need to collapse the world over this.
Yep I think even the people that got all this totally wrong will be forced to admit once the stuff has a big foothold the worst thing to do is to get the young people around the old for long periods in an enclosed house etc. Not sure about Spain but Italy you always heard jokes about the 20 and 30 year old crowd living at their grandparents home.
This is all kinds of crazy. 1) You don’t partially invoke the DPA. It’s like pregnancy. You either are invoking it or you’re not. 2) GM SOLD its Lordstown plant, which Trump personally tweeted about when it happened. 3) Yesterday, he said we didn’t need that number of ventilators. Now he’s trashing GM for not providing them. This is off the chain insanity. The WH adult day care needs to take the corona risk to take his phone away and save lives. Edit: Here’s the tweet where he was bragging about the sale of that exact plant.
Envoke the 25th amendment!!! No fan of Pence but at least he seems level headed when speaking in public
agree that it was always going to be city centers that saw the biggest case rates. But again, we know this has a high transmission rate, no way it took four months or more to find a city center to decimate. Heck flu season is national within a month or two every year and that is less infectious. And just logically, there were no major outbreaks before Wuhan, they were all after. There were no reports of a new virus anywhere else before that, only after. The progression is pretty clear. But if you disagree that’s fine? We will all know more in the coming weeks or months.
The range is way too high. Even the lowest figure that I have seen (1.5) is high enough that this would have been much worse if it was here in any kind of scale much earlier than they think.
