Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Models are only as good as the data they rely on. They are of course to going to change over time with the intervention of different social distancing measures and their impact plays out in the numbers. That said, experts closer to home still have some fairly large predictions. Believe this was posted yesterday on here:

Experts Say The Coronavirus Outlook Has Worsened, But The Trajectory Is Still Unclear

 

Highlights please.

Us plebs don't have access to premium content

 

This is a bit of a stretch. He revised his model to account for the very severe measures taken by the UK to contain the virus and mitigate its harmful effects. His worst case scenario was always based on them doing nothing and trying to achieve herd immunity.

 

CNBC:

Los Angeles county:

23,000 hospital beds, preparing to move non-covid-19 to the hospital ship Mercy which has 1000 more beds.

2200 ICU beds, Only 200 left free as of the report

 

RINOs. They dare criticize Trump.

 

I posted this last night. And there is a lot of discussion Earlier in the thread about this. Suggest you go back and read it or we will be in an endless loop discussing the same thing.

 

CNBC:
China never had area outside of Hubei province with more than 1100 cases.

America has 11 states with more than 1,000 cases

 

As far as I know people with symptoms are given a flu test first to rule that out (at least that’s the procedure I heard before and what they did for my wife). It takes 15 minutes tops to get flu test results.

 

That is one of the factors in the revised Imperial College and Oxford numbers. I believe it was here for reasons I have expressed earlier in this thread and for reasons I pm’ed a couple of mods. I had the symptoms beginning January 13 and it was not a cold and flu was ruled out. I have another reason for believing this as well. If that is the case, there was a longer period before community spread began. If you look at the growth curve, there is always a flat line of cases before the exponential growth starts. If that is the case, there has been more exposure and the course is likely to not be as severe long term. But, social distancing is still needed.

 

it takes weeks, not days, due to the extended incubation period of this virus

 

In part. But Oxford has a different model based on retroactive experience and says that the disease has been around 2 months longer and that people have gotten it without symptoms. So, a lesser rate of per person passing of the infection.

 

Yup. Hold fast Americans.

 

Yes, but that's a totally different model (as you said) that some scientists do not feel is accurate.

 

Coronavirus could kill 81,000 in U.S., subside in June - Washington University analysis

The number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak nationally by the second week of April, though the peak may come later in some states. Some people could continue to die of the virus as late as July, although deaths should be below epidemic levels of 10 per day by June at the latest, according to the analysis.

The analysis, using data from governments, hospitals and other sources, predicts that the number of U.S. deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000.


The variance is due in part to disparate rates of the spread of the virus in different regions, which experts are still struggling to explain, said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, who led the study.

 

Coronavirus Pandemic: Neil Ferguson Didn't Walk Back His COVID-19 Predictions | National Review

 

We will see more of these lies as this con game of fear continues to unravel.