Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Look at models. The difference is in the exponential decay rate and total infected and dead. One would have to look at where we are today, then go back with the model and see what would have happened with no mitigations. Of course, the distribution is actually more gaussian than exponential. The exponential part is just ramping up to the peak.

Of course, you have to believe the model has credibility to believe the results. If you have already predetermined your opinion, then definitely don't bother.

 

This thread is much harder to read when certain someone is on ignore, but makes more sense. Two pieces of data: (1) US has more cases of corona than anybody (yes, even more populated China), and (2) the US is testing at a lower rate per capita than Italy.

On the ground: someone asked about confusing corona deaths with flu deaths. I have been told by a medical professional that they cannot list a corona case or death as due to corona unless a test has confirmed the virus. So we are under reporting cases/deaths if anything. NY is now sharing ventilators among patients. With due respect to your enthusiasm Tilly, that is very dangerous to patient health. Is ventilator-sharing a good idea? Pulmonology experts weigh in: As COVID-19 spreads quickly across the country, hospitals are racing to respond — working on increasing bed capacity, staff and other key resources and equipment, namely ventilators, which are in short supply.. If one of our loved ones was sharing a ventilator with this known risk, we would be happy that they were at least being treated but outraged if ventilators were sitting in storage somewhere.

 

The CNN headline ...

Trump touts success as US becomes virus epicenter

Pretty much says all you need to know about this disconnect from reality of Trump and his supporters.

 

The man seemingly has an infinite supply of stuff to pull out of his ass.

 

and as the number of cases mount and the death toll mounts he will just blame the governors. He is only " responsible" for good things.....

 

You need to read the whole thing. It won't make you feel better about the situation in the US.

Trump: 'Let Them Breathe Cake' | The American Conservative

 

Trump: I don't believe you really need that many ventilators

 

Because the virus cares what Trump believes.

 

Pastor Who Claimed Covid-19 ‘Hysteria’ Was Plot Against Trump Dies From Virus

 

Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook

The 69-page document, finished in 2016, provided a step by step list of priorities – which were then ignored by the administration.

 

Here's why its not the end of the world...…
Imperial College scientist who predicted 500K coronavirus deaths in UK adjusts to 20K or fewer

"A scientist who warned that the coronavirus would kill 500,000 people in the United Kingdom has presented evidence that if current measures work as expected the death toll would drop to roughly 20,000 people or fewer.


Scientist and Imperial College author Neil Ferguson said Wednesday the coronavirus death toll is unlikely to exceed 20,000 and could be much lower if lockdown measures continue, according to New Scientist. He added that he is “reasonably confident” that Britain’s health system can handle the burden of treating coronavirus patients.

“There will be some areas that are extremely stressed, but we are reasonably confident — which is all we can be at the current time — that at the national level we will be within capacity,” Ferguson said.

The Imperial College had previously warned of modeling that suggested over 500,000 would die from the virus."


And here's why...

"The deaths from identified positive cases are “misleading” because of limited data, according to the professors.

“If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far,” the professors argued.
The professors cited data from Iceland, China, the United States, and Italy, which is arguably the hardest-hit region when it comes to the coronavirus.

“On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%,” the professors said. “Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.”

The professors argued that current epidemiological models aren’t adequate for two key reasons.

“First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections,” it reads"

'Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?': Professors claim more data needed to know mortality rate


Seems like the famed IMPERIAL COLLEGE guy is no better at Models than the National Hurricane Center 10 days out for a landfall prediction....


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They aren't, I read last night they still have 1000 ICU beds and at least 1000-2000 Vents not in use...

 

From his interview with Hannity last night.

Trump is not a good man, he is not a good leader, he is not a good president.

 

Where'd you read that? Because according to this ...

‘The Other Option Is Death’: New York Starts Sharing of Ventilators

 

Haven't read the article but I think you may be conflating New York State with NYC. Unused ventilators in Buffalo or Rochester aren't going to be available to patients in Brooklyn or Manhattan.

 

A testable hypothesis.

 

Here's something that is being researched - what if the virus was in the US 6 weeks earlier than the 1st reported case on Jan 20th?