Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

new contest, how many pages will this thread go?

 

What is?

 

Thank you, Dr Fever!

 

Your welcome. Hope I am not disrupting anyone's thoughts that more testing causing more positives means the bug is expanding even more.

 

More testing means finding more people who may have already had it but does not preclude the virus still spreading. In other words, it's not mutually exclusive.

 

You do such a good job responding.

 

Yes. And Oxford has real credibility, corroborated by the original author at Imperial College. We still need to undertake measures to protect the medical system, and there is still a risk of severe illness, but but on a lower scale. And maybe shorter. But if it was in Europe earlier, it was here earlier

 

The flu doesn’t overrun the system like this because there is already herd immunity to flu. So severe cases are spread out over time. I don’t know how many people have had this, but I do not disagree that it has been here longer than we understand. As I have posted, I was sick in January with the prototypical symptoms and tested negative for flu. But, with this disease it is fast and rapid spread

 

225,247,266 Hopefully I make my deadline of the DD topping no later than 3/30. Its going to be close.

Some experts say this stuff is turning out to be pretty weak if you project the numbers with what is being shown so far. We will know in due time I guess

 

Reality, but you seemingly aren’t interested so don’t worry about it.

 

I think that might apply to some others not me if they think this stuff is still going exponential. I think I will see what Nate Silver has had to say today.

 

The numbers as reported are rising exponentially for both positive cases and deaths. It's not about what you think, but what the data show.

You can find them and the graphs on various websites, one of which I think you mentioned here with the nate silver tweet a few days ago.

Based on World-o-Meter data (they have their own graphs up)

 

Let's set the over/under at 400. I'll take the over.

 

I have was a small business owner and closed it during the recession. I still own a small business bit am not dependent on it as I have a career in the non profit sector now.

You sir are correct.

The only thing I disagree with is that I think the payroll help will keep some businesses afloat for a while at least.

 

Social distancing on NYC subway system

 

I have little doubt that it has spread farther than testing accounts for. But 50 Percent or even anything close makes zero sense, that would mean that it was everywhere, and should mean a relatively equal distribution of serious cases. What has happened in Wuhan, NY, Italy etc all but proves that false - when it takes hold in an area the serious cases skyrocket. I realize it is the UK he is addressing but you would think a similar scenario here would apply. If it were 50 percent then NY for example should have no more than double the serious cases of any most any other place (assuming a relatively random distribution) and they are hundreds of times worse than much of the country. And North Carolina testing for example is only coming back at a 5 percent positive clip. California is at 4 percent positive.
NY, the heart of the outbreak is at 30 percent or so. Even if you double or triple those numbers under the assumption that some have had it and now test negative that theory doesn’t make sense.

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

and in fact, Ferguson clarified his comments tonight:

“I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).”

 

Just so I'm clear...is that worse than 15 cases and,in a couple of days, zero?

 

Nope. You can't set it & pick. That's like getting to split the weed & picking which pile you want.