Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

“Anybody who wants a test gets a test.”

 

That Dr. Lady is really tearing the models they were using up in a nice way saying data isn't anywhere close to those models - not to be all scared basically..

 

Hope she was arrested and put in stocks in the public square for vandelism

 

One ventilator, two patients: New York hospitals shift to crisis mode

At least one New York hospital has begun putting two patients on a single ventilator machine, an experimental crisis-mode protocol some doctors worry is too risky but others deemed necessary as the coronavirus outbreak strains medical resources.

 

Looks like Trump isn't the only politician thinking shutting it all down is a bad idea. This is going to get interesting:
Cuomo: Not sure if closing all businesses, keeping everyone home was ‘the best public health strategy’ | WGMD

 

That wasn't exactly what he said.

 

Key word is experimental. They aren't doing this from necessity...yet.

 

Cuomo: Not sure if closing all businesses, keeping everyone home was 'the best public health strategy'

“What we did was we closed everything down. That was our public health strategy. Just close everything, all businesses, old workers, young people, old people, short people, tall people,” said Cuomo. “Every school closed, everything.”

“If you rethought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don't know that you would say quarantine everyone,” Cuomo admitted. “I don't even know that that was the best public health policy. Young people then quarantined with older people was probably not the best public health strategy because the younger people could have been exposing the older people to an infection. “

 

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He is seeing cause and effect somewhat or entirely backwards. Large urban areas have a high incidence of CV because of human density and ease of CV transmission and they also tend to have Dem representatives because government is needed to deliver services there but Dem representatives don’t cause CV and CV doesn’t cause Dem representatives or something

 

Nope he fell for his Doctor's fear nonsense that isn't happening there.

I have to give Cuomo a little credit for his talk here. The experts that have been close on this stuff so far said that closing in old people with young people most of the day leads to them getting it more initially if the stuff had already took hold in an area and maybe even more cases in the long run than the young person just not being around the house much as is usually the case.

Cuomo did make other mistakes however.

Andrew Cuomo: Quarantining Everyone 'Not the Best Public Health Strategy'

“What we did was we closed everything down. That was our public health strategy. Just close everything,” Cuomo recalled....

“If you rethought that, or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don’t know that you would say, ‘quarantine everyone,'” he said. “I don’t even know that was the best public health policy.”

He suggested that younger people quarantined with the elderly might have spread the virus more quickly.

“Young people then quarantined with old people was probably not the best public health strategy,’ he said. “Because the younger people could have been exposing the older people with an infection.”

 

You wont like the link...but that is in a nutshell exactly what he said:
Cuomo: Not sure if closing all businesses, keeping everyone home was 'the best public health strategy'

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday that his stay-at-home order for the entirety of New York State was “probably not the best public health strategy.”

In a press conference in Albany, Cuomo said the smartest way forward would be a public health strategy that complemented a “get-back-to-work strategy.”

“What we did was we closed everything down. That was our public health strategy. Just close everything, all businesses, old workers, young people, old people, short people, tall people,” said Cuomo. “Every school closed, everything.”

“If you rethought that or had time to analyze that public health strategy, I don't know that you would say quarantine everyone,” Cuomo admitted. “I don't even know that that was the best public health policy. Young people then quarantined with older people was probably not the best public health strategy because the younger people could have been exposing the older people to an infection. “

 

Watching a news report. Florida has a warehouse that they are stocking with 1 million n95 masks because they are expecting an explosion in cases.

I wonder why there would be an explosion in cases.......

1 in 5 residence is 65 or older

 

I already read his comments, and @96Gatorcise posted them here too. Cuomo was expressing concern that by having everybody quarantine at the same time, he put young people carrying the virus with old people. It wasn't about the economics of it. Trump doesn't like the idea because he couldn't care less about people dying and just wants the economy to rebound. Trying to equate the two sentiments is disingenuous.

 

This was the strategy in South Korea. But, it requires comprehensive testing. Test. Segregate positives. Segregate clusters.

 

I never said it was economics..but he went into the economics too.

 

I agree.

 

This is absolutely about the economics of it:

Cuomo:
'It's something we're working through. The smartest way forward is a modified public health strategy that dove tails and compliments a get back to work strategy.

'What we did was we closed everything down. Closed everything. If you re-thought that, or had time to analyze it, I don't know that you would say, "quarantine everyone."

 

Here is the rationale for the Imperial College revision and the numbers. Which is great news.

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection


Ferguson explained, “I should admit, we’ve always been sensitive in the analysis in the modeling to a variety of levels or values to those quantities. What we’ve been seeing, though, in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which was faster than we expected from early data in China. And so we are revising our quotes, our central best estimate of the reproduction…something on the order of three or a little bit above rather than about 2.5.” He added, “the current values are still within the wide range of values which modeling groups [unintelligible] we should have been looking at previously.”

A higher rate of transmission than expected means that more people have the virus than previously expected; when the number of those with coronavirus is divided by the number of deaths, therefore, the mortality rate for the disease drops.

Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.



UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

The UK government is aiming to relax restrictions on people’s movements only when the country has the ability to test more people for the virus, said Ferguson. Some have criticised the UK for not following the advice of the World Health Organization to “test, test, test”. But Ferguson said community testing and contact tracing wasn’t included as a possible strategy in the original modelling because not enough tests were available.


New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.

His comments come as a team at the University of Oxford released provisional findings of a different model that they say shows that up to half the UK population could already have been infected. The model is based on different assumptions to those of Ferguson and others involved in advising the UK government.

Most importantly, it assumes that most people who contract the virus don’t show symptoms and that very few need to go to hospital. “I don’t think that’s consistent with the observed data,” Ferguson told the committee.