Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Looks like everything here is true, but the confounding factors you mention are absolutely true for case fatality rate also. This is why I suggest that closed case death rate, on its own, is worthy of consideration. BTW - mortality rate is different from case fatality rate. Mortality rate accounts for an entire population, not only those afflicted. It will be much lower than case fatality.

 

I miss the days of arguing about arming teachers.
Them were good times my friend.

 

Looked into it. It should be noted that his claims have received a significant amount of criticism from doctors and scientists for lacking factual basis. He makes assumption based on numbers not supported by current data and posits that air quality caused the issues in Italy and China despite data not supporting that conclusion. But what this shows is that while you may have a consensus, you'll rarely ever find unanimity among experts.

 

Odd theology, but mmmkay.

I actually don't consider myself "religious" I follow very few if any formal religious customs. I am however a person of devout faith. Big difference. Religion is the ritual of faith. I find that Jesus had little use for it, therefore neither do I.

Not going there in this thread though.

 

I’ll play along. Your logic is very hard to follow in other posts. What is the ulterior motive? How could the entire world be in on the motive? One paragraph, por favor

 

A long time ago I was in S. Cali talking to a guy who spent a lot of time studying Russia's transition from communism. He told me the reason they were flailing was, surprisingly, lack of bureaucracy. I'd never seen B as anything but bad. He changed my mind. He himself was shocked. At around the same time, I was working with a brilliant economist who made the same point albeit more abstractly. He convinced me that the cost of B > benefits about 95% of the time, but it far more than makes up for those little pains in the ass when it is right 5% of the time. I think he said something like it creates shitloads of annoying little costs, but it prevents great catastrophes. It's an unavoidable tradeoff.

But, I'd add screw you. If you think this is nothing but a ploy to get rid of Trump, then YOU are at fault. If pubs had any interest in small gov & conservatism, they could have displayed it by at least trying to get rid of this miserable piece of big gov garbage in the primaries. I know, you take no responsibility at all. Everything is someone else's fault.

 

Org sin was a collective notion, no? Jesus was plan B as I understand it.

 

Did you happen to notice Cuomo's statement today about how their rate of hospitalizations has slowed over the last three days?

 

Yeah, this is what I suspected:
Coronavirus: Doctors At Hospitals Say COVID-19 Death Numbers Aren’t Consistent

 

Breaking: Senate has approved the stimulus plan by unanimous vote. (Pending a few remaining votes)

 

All I know is the 6 times I have been on a cruise ship you are constantly in close contact with others the entire time you are outside of your cabin (well maybe in the cabin as well). Absolutely no comparison to social contact in the real world.....in my case anyways.

 

Thanks again. Today was better. Went employee by employee and determined who needed loans / sent offer letters with small signing bonuses guaranteed for when (whatever the lawyers came up with for this pandemic that sounds like force majure but was 4 paragraphs of legalease) is over.

We aren’t saints. I’m sure there will be a big juicy press release with a quote from a widow we loaned money to at 0.63% (min the IRS will allow) after this is all over.

We have investors to satisfy (30% endowments), so maybe it is those greedy professors behind all of this

 

Perhaps true, but they don't cite any specific sources or experts. Just random "Doctors and nurses".

 

It's like the perfect storm of our own making -

 

Fourteen Days. That’s the Most Time We Have to Defeat Coronavirus.
These decisive measures can prevent a decade of dislocation and extraordinary levels of deaths.


By Ezekiel J. Emanuel

America is losing the war against Covid-19, but we can win it with decisive and extraordinary actions now.

Health experts have not been overreacting. Models from Imperial College London and others suggest that up to 2.2 million Americans could die within a year without sufficient efforts to “flatten the curve.”

At the same time, it is right to worry about how Covid-19 will wreck the economy. Projections already suggest that the American economy could contract by more than 15 percent in the second quarter and that the unemployment rate could surpass 20 percent.

But the economy cannot be fixed without solving the pandemic. Only after the virus is contained can we reopen restaurants, bars, gyms and stores; allow people to travel, attend conferences and visit museums; and persuade them to buy cars and houses.

The window to win this war is about seven to 14 days...

 

Perhaps I was not clear.
Topic, stay on.

 

yep, ii would caution that with “let’s see where we are in a few days”, but just doing the math and some basic assumptions it makes sense to me.
He said it went from doubling every two days to every five. NY has been seeing a 23 percent or so jump a day the last few days, which would mean a doubling every 3 1/2 days, which kind of splits the difference. But you also have to figure there is more testing, and the morons who aren’t social distancing are likely younger and don’t need hospitalization as much. Older folks are being much more careful.
But the younger ones are still going to be carriers, that’s over 6000 infected people who clearly had contact with others, plus however many who are asymptomatic and don’t even know they are spreading it. NY is basically the incubator right now for the sudden jumps in some of their neighboring states like CT NJ and PA, who are now increasing rapidly. Hopefully they can be slowed.

 

Doctors and nurses working on the front lines are the ones best equipped to make that assertion.

 

Agree...except in death statistics. That many people, in that close proximity would likely lead to a higher death rate than a society social distancing.
Just one man's opinion of course, but seems logical.