Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

presume - suppose that something is the case on the basis of probability.

 

Yeah, the number of cases is mindboggling. I've read or listened to several people who seem to cautiously predict (more @ speculation and hope, imo) that omicron signals moving toward covid becoming endemic...and maybe it will, but I wouldn't be betting on it just yet.

The problem with there being so many omicron cases is that the massive spread means even more deaths even if omicron is less deadly.

 

Thanks--can you post the link for the 257.8 data? would be helpful for me to show several people I know--note not me--I'm vaccinated.

 

I used the CDC data tracker for the death rate differences by vaccination status but adjusted the numbers based on the CDC's mortality overview to restrict deaths only to those where covid was the underlying cause (which is where the 257.8k number came from), thus excluding 31.7k deaths where covid was one of multiple causes, though even if the 31.7k were included, the proportions would not change.

 

I think we are all just holding our breath on another variant...

Oddly Floridas deaths for Omicron appear it will get nowhere near that of our Delta wave.

 

Yes there could and likely will be another variant. Omicron is already an escape variant. It mutated to the point that the vaccines lost a lot of their use in stopping the spread.
I am curious to see some data post-Omicron wave to see how well natural immunity held up against Omicron.

If natural immunity did well and with the insane amount of people that got Omicron, it would be a good sign this is endemic.

 

You need to wait another couple of weeks before drawing conclusions on FL death rates from omicron. The data for January is still somewhat incomplete because of the way FL reports and backdates it.

 

FWIW, our covid home care patients have been way down, omicron vs delta.

 

The big difference is Omicron spiked so much faster than delta as did hospitalizations.

Every state is delayed in deaths. That’s not unique to Florida.

Hospitalizations peaked 2 weeks ago. Florida deaths should be peaking right now.
Hopefully I’m right.

 

Low percentages times Millions of people is a lot of people.

 

Agreed.

It's hard for people to decide the importance of small probabilities at the individual level. For example, is reducing your risk of serious illness from 0.009 to 0.001 worth the inconvenience of getting the shot? I don't think we can intuitively appreciate the difference. But at a collective level, the math can guide us to the potential the impact of such a reduction for our community. It could be hundreds of thousands of lives saved. But such models are often met with scorn by anti-science meatheads ("Fauci!") and people die.

 

Another tragedy of the unvaccinated. Over 200k kids have lost parents due to covid. Kids deserved better

Over 200,000 "COVID Orphans" in U.S. have lost a parent or caregiver

But their family isn't alone—a modeling study published in the medical journal Pediatrics in October estimated that more than 140,000 children in the U.S. lost a parent or caregiver to COVID-19 from April 2020 through June 2021.

That number has now grown to more than 200,000 children, Dr. Charles Nelson, a professor of pediatrics and psychiatry at Harvard University and a co-author of the study, told Newsweek.

 

All true statements in a vacuum, but they don't address my point. And yes - FL deaths should be peaking right now. It'll just be a while before the data confirms it.

If you look at every peak to date in FL, deaths peak 11-12 days after the case count peaks. That's a consistent, well established trend. But that's not the delay I'm talking about. FL has baked-in a reporting delay because of the way we back-date deaths. It will take 4-6 weeks for all deaths to be reported - and they're back dated to the day the death occurred. If you snapshot today's curve for "January" and check it a few weeks from now, it will grow. A significant portion of deaths from mid-January simply aren't reflected in the current stats - yet. The curves will continue to grow as the death reports trickle in. By mid February, most of them will be added. By the end of February nearly all of the January deaths will be fully reflected. You can't draw solid conclusions about total death counts from partially reported data.

This goes to a decision made about a year ago. It has the consequence of always making the recent deaths data appear lower than they will be once the data is complete. Painting a rosier picture than the reality of the situation. The cynic in me feels like this change was made so that the recent FL performance always looks like deaths are well under control - at least to the casual observer.

 

On 1/21, Florida reported 2 covid deaths happening on 1/20.
On 1/28, they reported that 52 covid deaths took place on 1/20.
As of today, 2/4, they are reporting that 123 deaths took place on 1/20.

 

Because much of the country did not have a Delta wave when we did. Between convalescent immunity and vaccine immunity, our immune systems recognize the virus and respond better than some areas of the country that did not have a Delta wave or are in different places on the Omicron wave. And if people I know are examples, there is a lot of asymptomatic spread among the vaccinated or previously infected. Or very mild cases. Not among all. I am hopeful this will be endemic in a couple of months. No one will care if someone has a cold. Like the old days.

 

Not one soul has died for lack of a vaccine. This is simply because there is nothing to vaccinate against. And the fact that vaccines are causing injury and death makes the whole thing darkly silly.

 

If viruses aren't real, where did the mRNA strand for the vaccine come from? The mRNA fairy?

 

Naturally, mRNA is not real either.

 

In a sense, yes. It’s just a genetic segment. Not a virus. Virology is a fairy tail. Albeit a dark fairy tale.