Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

I guess you forgot to put this in your post next to the graphs:


“The findings in this report are subject to at least four limitations. First, this was an ecologic study, and causation cannot be inferred. Second, pediatric COVID-19 case counts and rates included all cases in children and adolescents aged <18 years; later analyses will focus on cases in school-age children and adolescents. Third, county-level teacher vaccination rate and school testing data were not controlled for in the analyses; later analyses will control for these covariates. Finally, because of the small sample size of counties selected for the analysis, the findings might not be generalizable.”

Good try though. Almost like Fried trying to cherry pick data today. Not a good look for you.

 

I accept the findings of the Israeli study. But several small scale studies had very different results. And as large as the Israel study was, it had limitations, including only testing one vaccine and homogeny of test b subjects.

It's almost like the Israeli study says what you want, so any criticism or other study results that don't agree with your position must be ignored or ridiculed.

 

You think?

 

Not at all, just the studies you are showing are severely limited in many ways. The only criticism able to made about the Israeli study is the vaccines that Israel used. That can’t be said for any of the studies you quoted. So yes, I am going to go with the study that is the largest. If you can show me a large study showing otherwise, then we can open this back up, but until then yes, natural immunity is significantly greater than just the vaccine.

 

When small studies don't at all line up with the large study results, more research is needed. And anyone who says only the large study results count has an agenda. We simply don't know.

And the large scale Israeli study was homogeneous, which is a potential limitation. Different ethnic groups have different responses to flu viruses. Why should we assume all ethic groups respond to COVID the same way?

 

Take another look at the California study and get back to us with the correct percentages. I'm afraid you are going to have to throw that study out because it doesn't support your agenda.

 

The virus is called "SARS-CoV-2" (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2)
The disease is called "COVID" (or "COVID-19")

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

 

Kind of an odd date range. What percentage of schools across the country are underway by mid-August? end of August?

"Using data from July 1–September 4, 2021"

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,WESGATORS

 

I guess because you don't know anything about research, you don't realize that the Florida analysis that you posted is prone to 3 of those same limitations (i.e., causation can't be inferred, there was no control for county-level vaccination rate or school testing data, and the sample size was even smaller). Better luck tomorrow!

 

Most schools in this country get underway in August. Alachua County started on August 10. 38% of all school districts started by August 16 in 2019. That number has been increasing over the years.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/14/back-to-school-dates-u-s/

 

I'm not a scientist, but that doesn't seem like a substantial amount of data to collect to make any kind of inference from. Would be interested to see if September data indicates anything different.

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,WESGATORS

 

People were posting about the N=67 counties in Florida. N=520 is much larger. This is particularly true when you consider the "treatment" was given to 13 of the 67 in Florida whereas the other analysis gave the "treatment" to 198. I find it strange that you would view N=520 as too small of a sample but not bring that up when somebody posted the N= 67 Florida analysis, if you were actually trying to be objective there.

 

It's not the number of counties, it's the short duration of measurements from the time school has started. 22% of the cases, you literally have zero data. In 37%/43% (student pop vs. district) you are working with 1 week or less data. And in 56%/61% (again, student pop vs. district) you are working with 2 weeks or less of data.

All I'm saying is, let's see the data from the 4 weeks in September to see if it tells a similar story or not.

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,WESGATORS

 

Being open for 3 complete weeks in the data window (with 7 days of collection in each week by Sept. 4) was a selection criteria for the sample.

 

I see what you are saying, that is already factored into the 520 districts that were chosen. I still think it would be interesting to see what September shows us.

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,WESGATORS

 

Further, it would be nice to know the hospitalization changes as well (along with the more criticial hospitalizations).

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,WESGATORS

 

Florida passed NY in total covid deaths today.

 

Approximately 40% more 65+ in FLORIDA than in NY.
Total population of FLORIDA is about 2 million more than NY.

FLORIDA should be expected to have more COVID deaths, all things considered.

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,WESGATORS

 

Could be. I would say that the biggest concern is the one mentioned by the researchers (and ignored by the Florida folks) of endogenous selection. It is highly unlikely that mask decisions are random, so you would need to control for a variety of factors (two of which were mentioned by the researchers) that could be associated with the decision whether to engage in school masking and also might be associated with the spread rate of Covid (i.e., vaccination rates, distancing rates, masking outside of schools, other NPIs, etc.).

 

Yes, but about 30,000 NY deaths occurred in the first 2 months of the pandemic before distancing measures had taken full effect and before treatments became more effective. Since then Florida has done vastly worse than NY.