Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Im not saying that it’s hard to close nursing homes. I am saying it’s going to be hard to keep COVID out of them, if no one else in society is changing their behavior in any way. If it were so easy to protect a particular group, we would not have had our president get COVID.

If you want my opinion of schools, i’d probably say that yes in retrospect they didn’t turn out to be a hotbed of transmission. But I would qualify that in two ways: 1) this result was in conjunction with other measures and 2) is only obvious in hindsight. Last January people didn’t know what the heck they were up against. Trump thought there would be a handful of cases in the US total and even the CDC didn’t ask for travel limitations (that I can recall).

The bottom line is that it’s tough to know in advance, and it’s not even automatic to know in hindsight, as we don’t usually have the counterfactuals against which to compare.

 

Not at all. I am saying that an article where experts say they may be equal should not be ignored just because two other experts in that same article said it "may be" this or that.
He is speaking in absolutes...or pretty close, while the article itself is purely speculative at best.

I believe the combo of both is the key and is doing a huge job in knocking this down already.

My "working for Phizer" jab was just because he is robotically repeating the same talking points over and over, citing months old articles and using silly "lightning strike" hypotheticals. It sounds like a sales pitch.

I direct you back to my words in post #22444
<a href="Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts | Page 1123 | Swamp Gas Forums">Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts</a>

 

Researchers use qualifying words like "may" and "suggests" (as opposed to "proves") out of necessity. I thought it was strange that you sought to rebuke the evidence suggesting greater protection from the vaccine. From a quick search:
Immune Response From mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Is More Robust Than Natural Infection

Some suggest that the results are inconclusive. I found this though, which may be of particular interest to you.
‘Natural Immunity’ From Covid Is Not Safer Than a Vaccine

 

Again, there's likely more we don't know about COVID-19 than we do know. We still aren't sure exactly why kids seem to have less complications than adults when they get sick. What we do know? That in little over a year, over 25,000 people 49 and under have lost their lives to COVID. To put that in perspective, about 10,000 people, all ages, die in drunk driving incidents every year in America.

We also know that the short-term negative effects of the vaccine are significantly less severe than actually contracting the disease. A few blood clots with J&J, and almost everyone feeling fine within 48 hours of getting the shot, myself included. There is no such thing as long haul COVID vaccine issues, and the number of people hospitalized because of the vaccine dwarfs that of the people being hospitalized. Also, in all early indicators, immunity from the vaccine seems to be stronger and last longer than natural immunity. Hard to really say, since the vaccine is only about six months old, and we really didn't start mass vaccinations until around February.

What else we know about COVID? Like many other viruses, it mutates easily. The vast majority of these mutations are likely either benign in comparison, or could actually hurt the virus itself. But some of these mutations have caused the formation of variants. We have already seen one from the UK that makes COVID more virulent in children. Thankfully, this variant only causes more children to contract COVID, and spares them from the serious effects of the disease. We may not be so lucky if and when the next variant hits. And it's possible that it's already here, in Brazil. More study is certainly needed.

The best way to fight COVID is through the vaccination. Get enough people vaccinated, reach herd immunity, and we shut down the majority of the conduits that allow COVID to spread and mutate. Nothing that has been said by anyone disputes these facts. Some arguments that kids don't need the vaccine because COVID doesn't effect them as bad still need to overcome the fact that the more people who get COVID, children included, the bigger the chance of a variant.

Oh, and some more perspective. The leading cause of death in Americans under 50 is "unintentional accident." This category includes car accidents, drownings, and what they call poisoning, which is really drug overdoses. Break down the average unintentional accidents by category, and you'd see COVID would rank 2nd as a cause of death for this age group, right behind overdoses or poisonings, and above car accidents.

 

Covid was the number 1 killer of policemen in 2020...and nearly half are still refusing to get vaccinated. Same for healthcare workers..shocking to me that in professions where so many died that there are so many that refuse to get vaccinated, more than the general public.

Study finds more active-duty police officers died of COVID-19 in 2020 than all other causes combined The Daily (case.edu)

Of the 264 police officers who died in the line of duty in 2020 across the United States, more than half died of COVID-19, according to new data compiled by the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund (PDF) (NLEOMF).

“COVID-19 is absolutely devastating police departments around the country,” said Singer, also deputy director of the Begun Center for Violence Prevention Research and Education at the Mandel School. “I’m certain there are local departments that have been ravaged by this disease, as well as our hospitals’ staff, firemen and EMS. We need to do everything we can to promote healthy, safe first responders.”

The data does not include how many police officers were forced to miss work days because of COVID-19. However, the NLEOMF report noted that 145 police officers nationally died from complications related to the novel coronavirus. The organization verifies each reported death, according to its website.

COVID-19-related fatalities were the single highest cause of officer line-of-duty deaths in 2020. “By far,” Singer said. “It’s not even close.”

Low police vaccination rates pose public safety concerns - The Washington Post


The numbers paint a troubling picture of policing and public health. Because officers have high rates of diabetes, heart disease and other conditions, their hesitancy puts them at greater risk of serious illness from the coronavirus while also undermining force readiness, experts said. Police officers were more likely to die of covid-19 last year than of all other causes combined, according to data compiled by the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund.

Police hesitancy also means officers may be vectors of spread to vulnerable people with whom they interact during traffic stops, calls for service and other high-contact encounters. That could thwart efforts to restore community trust in a moment of heightened scrutiny after last month’s conviction of ex-officer Derek Chauvin in the killing of George Floyd.
....................................
Police ambivalence about immunization finds a parallel among other front-line workers. Just 52 percent of health-care workers surveyed by The Washington Post and the Kaiser Family Foundation between Feb. 11 and March 7 said they had received at least one dose.

 

@gator95, can you please elaborate why you find 25,000+ people under the age of 49 over the last 15 months or so funny?

 

Because you don’t stop talking about the same things over and over. You are like a broken record. You are close to the same odds of being murdered under the age of 40 and of dying of Covid. Let that sink in. Do you walk outside worried about getting murdered every day? Well, from your posts you might LOL but I sure don’t. The rest of what you wrote is repeat.

 

I take precautions to try and not be a victim of homicide. I avoid certain areas of town, especially at night, that tend to be more dangerous. I also have a home alarm and German Shepherd. He's an overgrown teddy bear, but when people hear him bark and see his shadow peering out the front window, they don't know that.

And I could take a vaccine and prevent the majority of homicides, that would not offer me protection, but the entire society, I would gladly take it. Wouldn't you?

We can never reduce the risk to zero. But that shouldn't mean we just throw our hands up and do nothing. Especially if the answer is as simple as visiting a drug store and rolling up our sleeves. All do that, and the risk for COVID for all of us diminishes significantly. So what's stopping people from doing it?

 

One last thought. There were over 200 murders in the entire state of Arizona in 2020, up from 180 in 2019. So far, just under 17,500 COVID deaths in the state.

 

2020’s historic surge in murders, explained

20k murders last year. Up 25% over 2019. You keep worrying about getting murdered and Covid. Myself and most of the rest of the US are getting back to normal. And no, kids don’t need to be vaccinated for something they are at almost zero risk of with an experimental drug. You will see a lot of people draw a line in the sand on this issue

 

So if there was a "homicide" vaccine that would protect you and everyone else, would you take it?

And let's hope the Brazil variant isn't the virus that effects kids the same as adults. Because if it is, does that not change your calculus? Then what? Do you take your chances with the vaccine, or the virus?

The way COVID-19 mutates, it's a matter of time and availability. We can greatly reduce the availability.

 

I took the vaccine. But you are making irrational comparisons. Not surprising. You must be a blast at parties. I don’t do anything more than lock my doors at night. But hey, you do you and I’ll take care of myself and keep my kids vaccine free until there is a lot more data available.

 

You are the one that brought up homicides. It is an irrational comparison, because there is no simple vaccine that could stop people from killing each other.

But the argument around variants versus vaccines? Very rational. And mentioned in several places by medical professionals. Like this link, that explains the 3 most dangerous variants, and admits there are likely already many more. Note, with the Brazil variant, not much is known. The link also advocates all eligible to get vaccinated, as it is the best weapon against COVID-19 variants.

As long as the new coronavirus continues to circulate, we’ll continue to see new variants emerge.

However, there’s one vital tool we can use to help slow the transmission of the coronavirus as well as the emergence of variants. That tool is vaccination.
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The science is clear. COVID-19 mutates and new variants could create new challenges, including a variant that is equally dangerous to children, which may already exist in Brazil. Or a variant that is vaccine resistant. All COVID needs to mutate is time and people to infect. Can't change time, but we can put a serious dent in the number of people COVID can infect by vaccinating everyone.

 

I love how 95 has been clamoring for people to get back to normal for over a year and “leave their basements” because he feels they have an irrational fear of a virus that’s killed 3.4M people but now he’s afraid of the vaccine. YCMTSU

 

I'm not afraid of the vaccine at all for myself. I got the vaccine in early April when it was offered to my age group. But damn straight I'm not getting my kids vaccinated for something that is at almost zero risk to them. I hope there are no long term issues with the vaccine, but i'm not taking that chance on something when my kids have close to zero risk of covid itself. Kid's aren't at risk. 100% Fact.

 

Leave your basement bro. It’s ok. The vaccine won’t hurt you.

 

By the way, these VAER's adverse affects numbers are delayed over a month. So yeah, you are wrong that the vaccine can't hurt someone. But hey, you keep wearing your mask while I don't. Actually, you should double mask just to be safe.

 

I am not sure that browbeating people in an attempt to convince them to vaccinate their children is a worthwhile effort. People should be more cautious with children, especially when it appears that their underdeveloped immune systems may actually result in better outcomes than in adults due to fewer inflammatory over reactions by the body.

At least for the mRNA based vaccines, so far most of the side effects that we are seeing are due to native anomalies in the human immune system that were likely unknown about in individuals prior to an attempted mass vaccination. They (vaccines) do not seem to suffer many of the traditional vaccine drawbacks that adenovirus vectored vaccines, adjuvanted vaccines with proprietary chemicals (regardless of platform type) and some of the others have had in the past. However, as is correctly pointed out, you cannot study longer term effects of anything in the short term.

I am almost never in agreement with @gator95 about anything, but I can definitely see his point about these vaccines and children here. Despite the nearly universal positive feedback on these vaccines, I do not see why caution when it comes to our children should not be exercised.

 

You are missing the point here though Davis. He selectively chose the "mays" and "mights" out of an article focusing on the similarity between both types of immunity.
An article that even says very little study has been done at that point (more than two months ago).
I hope the vax is more robust and I hope that is on top of a strong natural immunity. And if you read the post I mentioned above I gave what I believe was a very fair approach to my view on getting the vaccine. I have never been the kind of guy that rushes out and does something because the masses do or some message board poster attacks my position. I tend to be pretty deliberate and educated about decisions I make. That may mean at times I come around a bit slower than the masses...well that's ok.