Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Per CDC numbers we are currently at 481,805 more deaths in 2020 than there were in 2019. That number will continue to rise as more data comes in. The excess deaths number corroborates the number of Covid deaths number (450k).

 

Apparently 480K+ extra deaths is hilarious.

 

Nice effort. Good try. Let’s look at the CDC deaths per million(only stay that really matters). Who is the Top 5?
New Jersey
New York
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Rhode Island

So 4 of the top 5 have a minimal amount schools being open. What’s the correlation to schools not being open?

 

Never cease to be amazed at the level of lies and manipulations from this former President and the administration.

U.S. lawmakers say Trump appointees interfered with COVID-19 testing guidance

 

You know you're losing when you have to move the goal posts. You disagreed that in-person schooling was correlated to case rates. But there is a strong correlation. You either don't understand what correlation means or you are lying.

So now you want to talk about deaths. There may be a correlation there, but it's much less obvious. MS is in the highest in-person schooling group. NY and RI are in the median in-person schooling group. And MA and NJ are in the 20-40% in-person schooling group. None of these states are in the lowest in-person schooling group.

Four of the 10 states that have the highest death rates are also in the highest in-person school group (MS, SD, LA, ND). Of the 10 states with the lowest death rates, 6 of them are in the lowest 2 in-person school groups, 3 are in the middle in-person group, and 1 (Utah) is in the highest in-person school group.

So while there may be a correlation, it is not nearly as obvious and you'd have to analyze the numbers to get the correlation coefficient (r) for it.

 

Please. You’ve been moving goalposts on schools being open for months. It’s embarrassing. It’s like the kid who cried wolf with you. No one believes you anymore except the teachers unions.

 

Not to mention, a study like this wouldn't have 100% confidence, because school opening isn't the only variable. Compare CA to other states, and if the major strain in CA was more virulent, then there would be high number of cases per capita, and more deaths. Then there's population density. If the average Los Angeles resident runs into 1.5X as many people in the grocery store than the average Topeka, Kansas resident, then grocery shopping is a more dangerous activity in LA than Topeka by the fact that the chances of interacting with a COVID-19 positive person is significantly higher in L.A.

These variables are likely reasons why if there is causation between schools open and cases rising, it's not a neat and tidy, 1:1, straight line graph. And why there are likely outliers, in both directions, when it comes to answering the question about keeping schools open.

Most of the data, if not all of the data suggests in a place with low community spread, keeping schools open are safe. But in places of high community spread? Can anyone say, for sure, that it didn't lead to cases like we saw in Tucson, with 6 employees dead from COVID-19 in a month? If you cant, and you still want schools open even in places with high community spread, you are gambling with the lives of school employees.

 

Yeah, there are countless factors. I was just trying to get 95 to understand what 'correlation' means. I failed.

And causation, if there is one, can go either direction. Maybe some states have less in-person schooling because their cases are high. Or maybe their cases are high, in part, because they have more in-person schooling. Or maybe neither. It's just funny when a guy stomps his feet and refuses to acknowledge an obvious truth (that there is a correlation amongst states between in-person schooling and higher cases rates).

 

We should definitely compare large states to other large states. Florida and CA are the comparison that makes sense. So let’s look at hospitalizations and deaths. And also take into account age, which is the number 1 driver of who Covid kills.

So deaths per million:
Florida 1295/mil
Cali. 1122/mil

Hospitalizations:
florida 245/million
Cali 326/million

So California currently is doing better than Florida in death rate but California is closing the gap every day and Florida is also saddled with an average age population that is 5th oldest versus California which is the 5th youngest.

And strains are a wash since they are everywhere already, so that’s not specific to California.

Oh, and Florida currently has open restaurants and bars and has 99.8% in school availability versus California’s closed restaurants and bars and 4% in person schooling.

 

This isn’t how it works. Just because you say it over and over again doesn’t make it right. Sorry the data I provide doesn’t fit your narrative. But you’ve been wrong for months so this isn’t surprising.

 

So nice you can waive away the argument about different strains, even though the science disagrees with you.

“There are 17 genetic changes in the B.1.1.7 variant from England,” Bollinger says. “There’s some preliminary evidence that it’s more contagious. Scientists noticed a surge of cases in areas where the new strain appeared.”

He notes that some of the mutations in the B.1.1.7 version seem to affect the coronavirus’s spike protein, which covers the outer coating of SARS-CoV-2 and give the virus its characteristic spiny appearance. These proteins help the virus attach to human cells in the nose, lungs and other areas of the body, causing COVID-19 illness.

“Researchers have preliminary evidence that some of the new variants, including B.1.1.7, seem to bind more tightly to our cells” Bollinger says. “This appears to make some of these new strains ‘stickier’ due to changes in the spike protein. Studies are underway to understand more about whether any of the variants are more easily transmitted.”​

More needs to be studied, for sure, but so far, new strains have only been more transmittable, not deadlier. Add in median age of COVID patients, and you have a potential answer to why there have been more hospitalizations in CA per capita, but more deaths in FL.

Sorry, but just because you don't like an explanation or think it doesn't matter, doesn't make it so. Different strains of the virus is very important in understanding infection rates and why they may differ from region to region. Unless you know better than the author of the linked article who works for Johns Hopkins?

 

Let me know when you figure out what 'correlation' means and we can revisit this. Once you've done that we can talk about why there's a correlation, or maybe agree that there is no apparent reason for it. But we can't talk about why a correlation exists until you understand what 'correlation' means.

 

I’m dismissing the strains because they are everywhere. California doesn’t have a monopoly on a bad strain or 2. That’s not anywhere close to the truth.

 

Good job with admitting you are have no argument for schools being closed. When you try to change the topic and make up crap that’s when I know you are being dishonest as usual. No surprise.

 

Again, scientists disagree. Otherwise, why write about the importance of different strains? And sure, no place has a monopoly on any one strain, but if say the more virulent CA strain had a 3 month head start in CA before it made its way to FL, wouldn't you think it would reflect in total case numbers and hospitalizations? Of course it would.

 

My issue is you are making assumptions without data. That’s the problem.

 

There's just nothing there. You might as well say 'I know you are but what am I?' for every post. We have hundreds of pages of you posting stuff like this. Playground-level stuff.

 

You just did this exact same thing. Where's your data showing that all strains are everywhere in equal numbers, as you claim?

 

A new study come out recently trying to answer the question of which way the causational arrow is pointing, and it appears to be pointing toward children's infections leading to more community spread rather than the other way around.

Study was published in French, it will be a couple more weeks before we get an English version of it. But from the people who are fluent in both, it looks like an increase in child transmission precedes an increase in community transmission.

 

Try reading for yourself. It’s common knowledge that any strains won’t just target California. Hey, are you going to be with the teachers unions that won’t go back to work until kids are vaccinated? I’m sure that’s next on your whacked out list.

UK coronavirus strain is doubling in the U.S. every 10 days, study finds