Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Again, you are misrepresenting the meaning of raw numbers. Refusing again to lay the deaths sour for a month by month comparison and assessing available treatment options to asses state policies. Forgetting that New York was the first severely hit state. Junk science. You know what is so pathetic? There are real experts in statistics who have tried to explain to you your incorrect application of numbers for months now and you just dig in and keep doing it. And post your snarky comments like the one above about people living in reality. And, sorry, 27,000 deaths is not playoff caliber winning. Which is what 11-5 was this year. Especially given the timing of deaths in Florida in relation to therapeutics. But, if you can’t make that comparison, then you can’t really measure the success or failure of states anywhere. All you can do is show the world is how a little knowledge is dangerous. This goes back to July but illustrates my point.
https://covidtracking.com/analysis-...pita-covid-19-cases-just-surpassed-new-yorks/

 

Maybe you need help in understanding population and how percentages work. Just because NY handled the Covid pandemic terribly and tried to cover up the nursing home deaths, don't take it out on Florida. It's ok. Just like you were made to look foolish with supporting school closures, you are looking foolish thinking NY did a better job than Florida.

So CURRENTLY, NY has 402 hospitalizations per million while Florida is at 255 hospitalizations per million.

Florida has vaccinated 31% of it's elderly population(largest in the country) while NYC(NY doesn't provide numbers) has only vaccinated 15% of their elderly.

Just move on. I'm actually kind of embarrassed for you.

 

And since you can’t address the confounding factors of the differences in case, Raw numbers and deaths with respect to Dloroda and New York, you shift to a different argument because you can’t stick to the one you started. And conclude with another of your insults. Good luck finding people to engage with. No worries if you don’t want to discuss the false conclusions you reach from numbers you cite. Not interested anymore In trying to explain it to you.

 

So is this your way of saying No Mas? I get it, you are trying smoke and mirrors to make it look like you didn’t get owned in this argument. But sorry, you were wrong before and wrong again. Hopefully in a few years you won’t be the person complaining about kids being far behind in school, but I have a feeling you will be blaming DeSantis then as well.

 

Decline in COVID-19 Hospitalization Growth Rates ...

Interesting study saying masks help control Covid. But interesting stop date for their study. It’s almost like they picked a date before cases exploded. Issue is most media won’t bring up what happened after the study concluded, did everyone stop wearing their mask?

 

You really don't get science, do you? The evidence for masks is overwhelming. Another CDC link, referenced in your linked study:

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

• An investigation of a high-exposure event, in which 2 symptomatically ill hair stylists interacted for an average of 15 minutes with each of 139 clients during an 8-day period, found that none of the 67 clients who subsequently consented to an interview and testing developed infection. The stylists and all clients universally wore masks in the salon as required by local ordinance and company policy at the time.32
• In a study of 124 Beijing households with > 1 laboratory-confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 infection, mask use by the index patient and family contacts before the index patient developed symptoms reduced secondary transmission within the households by 79%.33
• A retrospective case-control study from Thailand documented that, among more than 1,000 persons interviewed as part of contact tracing investigations, those who reported having always worn a mask during high-risk exposures experienced a greater than 70% reduced risk of acquiring infection compared with persons who did not wear masks under these circumstances.34
• A study of an outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an environment notable for congregate living quarters and close working environments, found that use of face coverings on-board was associated with a 70% reduced risk.35
• Investigations involving infected passengers aboard flights longer than 10 hours strongly suggest that masking prevented in-flight transmissions, as demonstrated by the absence of infection developing in other passengers and crew in the 14 days following exposure.36,37

 

Lecturing me on science? You are the one wanting schools closed. There is zero science to back that up. But hey, you keep throwing BS against the wall, I’m sure some governors and teachers unions will buy it. If masks worked we wouldn’t have had a breakout. You know that but are just trying to be dishonest. It’s ok, I see thru your crap. Hardly anyone believes your bs luckily. Yeah, the CDC really followed science with that study. I guess everyone took their mask off right after the study ended LOL. When you produce a real RCT study on masks and show where they work then I’ll be on board. You know, like the Danish RCT study on masks...

Oh, I forgot you don’t like that study because it doesn’t parrot what the “scientists” say. Oops

 

There's a great deal of evidence and many studies that show masks do work. Plus there's just basic common sense that should tell you that as well (but then maybe you've never been in a hospital before). You figure all those people gathering for the holidays were wearing their masks the whole time they were at grandma's house? You been to a bar lately? I have. Nobody is wearing masks at bars. I see non compliance everywhere. If there were more compliance with mask wearing the holiday spike would not have been as high.

So I'm going go with the scientific evidence on this one rather than (someone) on a message board.

 

Wow, great speech. Too bad it doesn’t have any facts in there. I posted the CDC study dates and the CDC conveniently stopped the study right when cases started exploding in the US. Some might even call that disinformation. And good try on using the holidays as the reason why cases went up. Maybe you need help reading a chart. Cases started their ascent in the 2nd week of October. So your assertion that Thanksgiving caused this is BS.

And it’s funny you say you are following science on masks, but not schools. What a joke.

 

Too funny. (He) thinks that the holidays couldn't possibly have been a factor because cases started going up before the holidays. I guess some folks think there can only be one cause for anything. Flu cases start going up in the fall too and then are increased further by people gathering during the holidays.

You do understand that the main way viruses are transmitted is through person to person contact, right? The more contact people have with each other, the greater the transmission. This is extremely basic stuff that you are disagreeing with.

 

It depends upon the set of facts. When you consider the devastation from this virus, there's reason for negative discussion. Now that the vaccines are being distributed, there's reason for optimism and I've read/heard plenty of good news.

 

Of course they helped spread. It doesn’t change the fact cases were flying up before hand also. I know you got called out better to just not reply because you are just digging a deeper and deeper hole. Like the school being closed one.

 

Talking to a friend in a small rural school district today. They ended up quarantining just over10% this week. Entire music dept and kids, after school, entire cleaning staff. Two kindergarten classes....
Most cases traced to away from school but then due to exposures people get quarantined. Said it was like whack a mole moving the pieces around and folks like IT staff and admin don’t meet with each other because there are no reserves. No subs either so it is a giant shat show trying to keep everything running. They said they had been pretty lucky with isolations until now.
On another note, my niece, a 4th grade teacher has been quarantined 4 times due to exposures at her school. She said distance learning was a disaster for her school, but.....

come on vaccines!

 

Yes, cases were rising in October and certainly one of the reasons for that is the easing of shut down restrictions (as well as pandemic fatigue). And from Halloween on cases skyrocketed. Anything that causes more people to come in physical contact with each other will lead to more cases, even in-person schooling.

 

Good try on slipping the school bit in there. Go read up on the data before making up crap. Try North Carolina and Wisconsin studies.

 

As long as we are discussing opening schools again, let's see what the CDC said about opening schools on December 31.

Community, Work, and School

Most children and adolescents with the virus that causes COVID-19 have mild symptoms and some have no symptoms at all.2-4 The symptoms of COVID-19 are similar in adults and children and can look like other common illnesses, such as colds, strep throat, influenza, or allergies.2-4 Children, like adults, who are infected but have no symptoms can still spread the virus to others.5 For more information on symptoms of COVID-19 in children, visit COVID-19 in Children and Teens.

Children and adolescents with underlying medical conditions are at increased risk for severe illness from COVID-19. Additionally, some children may develop the rare but serious condition associated with COVID-19 called Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C). While the number of children who have been hospitalized with COVID-19 has been low compared with adults, one-third of hospitalized children with COVID-19 have been admitted to the intensive care unit.6 Most deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 are among adults; however, children in the United States have died from COVID-19.7

Because children with the virus that causes COVID-19 can spread it to other children and to adults,2,5,8,9 it is important to take measures to minimize risk of spread in school settings. Implementation of multiple mitigation strategies can limit the spread of the COVID-19 in many settings.10,11 Application and adherence to multiple mitigation measures provided in this document help schools reopen and stay open safely for in-person learning.

Resuming and maintaining in-person learning may pose risks to children, teachers, school administrators, and other staff in the school environment, and their families and household members. Among adults, older age and having underlying medical conditions increases the risk for severe illness from COVID-19. For information about who is at increased risk, visit People at Increased Risk.
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The posting links the following from September

Community, Work, and School

Each STLT should decide the most appropriate indicators to reference when deciding to open, close, or reopen schools. CDC recommends the use of 3 core indicators. These core indicators include two measures of community burden (number of new cases per 100,000 persons in the past 14 days; and percentage of RT-PCR tests that are positive during the last 14 days) AND one self-assessed measure of school implementation of key mitigation strategies. CDC suggests decision-makers use one or both of the first core measures of community burden in addition to a third core indicator, the self-assessed measure of school implementation of key mitigation strategies. These key mitigation strategies should be implemented to the largest extent possible.

The two measures of community burden should be used to assess the incidence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the surrounding community (e.g., county) and not in the schools themselves. Currently, CDC does not recommend using these core indicators as measures of burden within the school.

Secondary indicators may also be used to complement the core indicators and further support actions taken. The list of secondary indicators is illustrative and is not meant to be exhaustive.

Other factors should also be considered in local decision-making – including the extent to which mitigation strategies are adhered to in the broader community. Local officials should seek out other sources of data to assess adherence to recommended mitigation strategies within the community. Each STLT can decide the most appropriate indicators to reference when deciding to open, close, or reopen schools.
=====================

The CDC is going to release guidelines on opening schools if teachers have not been vaccinated this coming week.

Should Schools Reopen If Teachers Aren't Yet Vaccinated? CDC Will Soon Weigh In

The federal government plans to release new guidance next week about how to safely reopen schools in the midst of the pandemic — guidelines that could add new grist to a debate over whether schools should wait until teachers are vaccinated before requiring their return to the classroom.


CDC scientists published an article last week in JAMA, the journal of the American Medical Association, that showed some schools were able to reopen safely by following safety precautions — but the article included a disclaimer that the conclusions "do not necessarily represent the official position" of the CDC.

=============================
Here is the JAMA Article; I can't post more than 4 paragraphs.

In-Person Education and the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

As many schools have reopened for in-person instruction in some parts of the US as well as internationally, school-related cases of COVID-19 have been reported, but there has been little evidence that schools have contributed meaningfully to increased community transmission.4 A case-control study of exposures among children aged 0 through 18 years with (n = 154) and without (n = 243) SARS-CoV-2 infection in Mississippi found that having attended gatherings and social functions outside the home as well as having had visitors in the home was associated with increased risk of infection; however, in-person school attendance during the 14 days prior to diagnosis was not.5 In the fall of 2020, 11 school districts in North Carolina with more than 90 000 students and staff were open for in-person education for 9 weeks.6 During this time, within-school transmissions were very rare (32 infections acquired in schools; 773 community-acquired infections) and there were no cases of student-to-staff transmission. Similarly, in a report released by CDC on January 26, 2021, with data from 17 K-12 schools in rural Wisconsin with high mask adherence (4876 students and 654 staff), COVID-19 incidence was lower in schools than in the community.7 During 13 weeks in the fall of 2020, there were 191 COVID-19 cases in staff and students, with only 7 of these cases determined to result from in-school transmission.

While these data are encouraging overall, large outbreaks have occurred with apparent transmission in schools. In Israel, within 2 weeks of schools reopening in mid-May 2020, a large high school outbreak occurred when 2 students with epidemiologically unrelated infections attended classes while mildly symptomatic.8 Testing of more than 99% of at-risk students (n = 1164 eligible; 1161 tested) and staff (152 eligible; 151 tested) identified 153 and 25 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, respectively (attack rates of 13.2% and 16.6%). Contributing factors to this outbreak included crowded classrooms with insufficient physical distancing (eg, student density in classrooms exceeded recommended values), exemption from face mask use, and continuous air conditioning that recycled interior air in closed rooms during a heat wave.

However, the preponderance of available evidence from the fall school semester has been reassuring insofar as the type of rapid spread that was frequently observed in congregate living facilities or high-density worksites has not been reported in education settings in schools. Preventing transmission in school settings will require addressing and reducing levels of transmission in the surrounding communities through policies to interrupt transmission (eg, restrictions on indoor dining at restaurants). In addition, all recommended mitigation measures in schools must continue: requiring universal face mask use, increasing physical distance by dedensifying classrooms and common areas, using hybrid attendance models when needed to limit the total number of contacts and prevent crowding, increasing room air ventilation, and expanding screening testing to rapidly identify and isolate asymptomatic infected individuals. Staff and students should continue to have options for online education, particularly those at increased risk of severe illness or death if infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Nonetheless, some school-related activities have increased the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among students and staff. Numerous media reports of COVID-19 outbreaks among US high school athletic teams suggest that contact during both practices and competition, and at social gatherings associated with team sports, increase risk. On January 26, 2021, CDC released a brief report describing the initial investigation of a COVID-19 outbreak associated with a high school wrestling tournament that occurred in December 2020 and included 10 schools and 130 student-athletes, coaches, and referees.9 Among the 130 tournament participants, 38 (30%) had laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosed, but less than half the participants were tested. At least 446 contacts of these cases have been identified: 62 household contacts and 384 school athletic, classroom, and other contacts. Secondary transmission occurred among household contacts (18 SARS-CoV-2 infections among 30 tested) and other contacts (23 SARS-CoV-2 infections among 65 tested) and 1 death was reported in a contact, but the full investigation of secondary transmission is ongoing. In recognition of the risk for increased transmission, some states have halted or postponed school athletics.10

 

No. Not no mas because I am wrong.

No Mas because you are spamming the board with your insults. You have no clue how to read a study or meta analysis other posters, but act like a self-styled expert.

For example, you pick isolated studies and argue they support blanket school openings, without an apparent clue that the CDC just released a JAMA article analyzing the meta data on schools on January 26.

And, the JAMA article I linked identifies criteria for risk factors and spread. Read the CDC link I posted as well. You offer no criteria for safe openings other than blanket openings, and then insult anyone who challenges you.

You cite studies where there is minimal community spread and argue it is safe to open schools, while ignoring studies where poorly ventilated schools opened where there is community spread and that led to outbreaks.

Your posting is intellectually dishonest. If you offered in a courtroom the argument that a study in areas where there is no community spread of schools with adequate ventilation and room for distancing to support an argument that schools should be opened where there is community spread, have no ventilation and no room for social distancing, your arguments would be Dauberted into oblivion.

Since you asked why no mas, I have no interest in your arguments since your evidence does not support your arguments. I don't respect your data or arguments, since you don't understand statistics, the scientific process, or confounding data.

That you have a blanket assessment of schools and believe that your data proves that other posters are insult worthy, but the CDC is going to release criteria this week for schools with teachers who have not been vaccinated this week, your insults seem to be the goal.

And, I really don't know why the moderators let you get away with calling people foolish or suggest that people should be embarrassed.

So, don't take any lack of direct response to you as conceding to your knowledge or an inability to respond.

 

Didnt the CDC just issue guidelines about school openings and teacher vaccines that has since been walked back because the white house didnt like what they said? Realize the media put a slight spin on this because of who is now in the white house.

 

DON’T FEED IT

 

More good news, Feb has not cracked the top 10. 1/12 was peak.

Highest reported Daily New Deaths (Top 31 days)

1. January 12th 2021- 4497 (T)
2. January 20th 2021- 4399 (W)
3. January 21st 2021- 4382 (TH)
4. January 27th 2021- 4262 (W)
5. January 26th 2021- 4207 (T)
6. January 14th 2021- 4149 (TH)
7. January 7th 2021- 4144 (TH)
8. January 6th 2021- 4103 (W)
9. January 13th 2021- 4083 (W)
10. January 8th 2021- 4052 (F)
11. Feb. 3rd 2021- 4032 (W)
12. January 28th 2021- 3948 (TH)
13. January 22nd 2021- 3924 (F)
14. December 30th 2020- 3893 (W)
15. January 15th 2021- 3839 (F)
16. January 5th 2021- 3793 (T)
17. December 29th 2020- 3735 (T)
18. Feb. 2nd 2021- 3717 (T)
19. January 29th 2021- 3684 (F)
20. Feb. 4th 2021- 3668 (TH)
21. Feb. 5th 2021- 3665 (F)
22. December 16th 2020- 3634 (W)
23. December 31st 2020- 3603 (TH)
24. January 16th 2021- 3491(S)
25. December 17th 2020- 3478 (TH)
26. January 23rd 2021- 3438 (S)
27. December 23rd 2020- 3415 (W)
28. December 22nd 2020- 3399 (T)
29. December 9th 2020- 3278 (W)
30. January 9th 2021- 3264 (S)
31. December 10th 2020- 3111 (TH)


Heart Disease- approx 1800/day
Cancer- approx 1650/day
Covid 19- 1500/day (projected- 3/2020 - 3/2021)
Suicide- approx 140/day