Conservative Pre-Half Is Now A Trend?

What, insufferable? If so, I think I do & find it appropriate.

 

Geez!
Justs before I read this thread, I was thinking "there is a reasonable chance to finish 8-4, with three of the losses coming against top 10, maybe top 5, teams.
Now I learn that the Gators first year coach, who inherited a dumpster fire, doesn't know what he is doing.

 

Watch CBN’s and AR’s postgame pressers. They both addressed it. Billy calls it two-minute mayday when we are deep in our own territory. We practice it everyday and just haven’t executed well enough to get to around midfield to be aggressive. But that doesn’t fit the narrative of how playcalling is horrible.

Billy Napier Postgame 11-5-22
Anthony Richardson Postgame 11-5-22

 

So now he’s both too conservative AND too aggressive? Which is it? He’s wrong because the end result was not what the fans wanted? If only he had 20/20 hindsight like the rest of us.

 

That is not what I said. My point is, his management of end of half has been consistently wrong. Whether he has chosen to be aggressive or conservative. I guess it is possible he has just been consistently unlucky, but if you look at each of his decisions - for example - not waiting to call a timeout at Tennessee until after 3rd down instead of calling it after 2nd down, letting AR try to throw on a long field before half against a hapless UK team that was down 9 and couldn't move the ball. Or against LSU - going uber conservative and not trying harder to score - ETC. Some decisions have been conservative, some have been aggressive - they have all universally not worked out. IN HINDSIGHT. Now, end of half is tough - coaches make mistakes all the time, but to be consistently wrong, and the way he has consistently misused timeouts and mismanaged clock - that is almost indisputable at this point.

But it's not the end of the world. He'll get better the more experience he gets. But it's been a rough year for him in this area.

 

Perhaps the players were to blame yesterday on the final possession before the half.
1. Delay of game
2. Busted play
3. Lose yardage

 

I think the first game of the season we addressed this. He gambled some against Utah and won. Someone posted a whole thread about if we are going to celebrate gambles like that we can’t be bitching when it goes wrong. I myself have no problems with his gambles. As a matter of fact, as others pointed out in this game, he WAS being aggressive up until the point where the execution of the offense wasn’t where he wanted after the holes we dug on consecutive plays. After which, the smart play was to be conservative.

 

Curious what is the measuring stick for the bolded statement above? I’m not familiar with a universal standard for evaluating coaches mistakes in EoH situations?

 

It’s pretty simple. Did your decisions create value for you or your opponent? End of half has been particularly low value for Uf this year. That’s not really up for debate. What is debatable is how much of that is mismanagement versus how much is just bad luck.

 

If you want to make the declarative statement of low value then you have to also admit to the value could have been lower value as well as higher value. It’s not always zero sum, status quo has value. Momentum swings widely during a game on random plays/events even simple routine events think ep/fg, usually a benign play until it isn’t because of a block or tip sometimes just a miss.

Using advanced metrics in after action review during a single game to call out coaching decisions isn’t fruitful. I dislike the aggressive/conservative label for end of half management dies the give enough context to the decision. We aren’t counting cards in a shoe after playing 100 hands at a blackjack table.

What works in the nfl or for other teams isn’t indicative of our ability to push the gas especially this year. One only needs to look at 2021 uga game to appreciate better management at the end of the half.

All this to say looking back at a 1 score loss will always point to should have done more to score at the RBD of the half. You mentioned the 2022 uk game pushing wasn’t a great idea in retrospect but there were many wanting that choice, they just didn’t want the actual outcome now play selection and other variables enter the discussion.
Without knowing the game plan leading up to Saturday we are just spitballing and Sunday morning QBing. I promise you BN has a set of preplanned decisions already developed based on his anticipated unfolding of the game and adjustments for positive and negative deviation from the expected.

 

I will agree win probability is a potential directional outcome predictor except with a half to play too much time for that to be definitive unlike end of game scenario.

Also, we are looking at the outcome of the decision. Where or what is the metric for making the decision to press or stand pat prior to executing the choosen strategy.

There is way more than let’s get more points in the next 2minutes or less because the scoreboard tracks point totals.

The goal of the game is to out score your opponent but yuh can add to their total also

 

Really not a negative thread

It’s a legitimate question as it has happened numerous times.

That’s what these boards are for to discuss both the good and bad.