CNN Presidential Poll 4/18 - 4/23

Once again, illustrating the predictive accuracy of presidential election polls before Labor Day.
From July 26, 1988
Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll (Published 1988)

Or more recently, April 29, 2016
Clinton would crush Trump in November

April 13., 2016
A new electoral-map model finds Hillary Clinton crushing Donald Trump and Ted Cruz

 

I continue to believe you don't get an accurate look at realistic numbers when this is how polling is done.

 

Will there be more polls before the election or was this the last one?

 

The coming Trump win? While I do believe that if the election were held today, Trump would probably win, it won't take place until November. Virtually every recent poll for Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin has been within the margin of error with Biden actually leading in several polls for those states.

Keep in mind that in 2022 every Democratic candidate for statewide office in Michigan won by at least an eight percentage point margin and that for the first time in decades the Democrats control both houses of the state legislature. Biden's biggest problem in Michigan is the possibility that Arab-American voters in the state could end up voting third-party or staying home because they're pissed off over Biden's support of Israel.

As far as Pennsylvania is concerned Republican candidates haven't won a statewide election since 2016 and while within the margin of error most polls actually show Biden ahead.

With the exception of Ron Johnson in 2022 who was reelected to the Senate by a margin of under one percent (most polls had him winning by a margin of around four percent), Republicans in Wisconsin also haven't won a statewide election since 2016 and last year a progressive Democrat defeated a MAGA Republican in an election to the State Supreme Court by a margin of around 10 percent in an election in which abortion rights were a significant issue (note: although the election was nominally nonpartisan the positions of the candidate were rather obvious).

In addition Arizona may be back in play thanks to resurrection of the 1864 anti-abortion law and while Trump has been leading in almost all polls in Nevada, the Republicans have only won a single statewide election since 2016 and that was the loss of the incumbent Democrat governor almost entirely as the result of the 2020 Covid lockdowns in a state heavily dependent on tourism. Democrats have consistently outperformed the polls in Nevada thanks largely as the result of the ability of the Culinary Workers Union to turnout its members.

 

ZOMG - it's like they don't even behave like "leftist" media!!

Still is.

And a criminal.

As he was.

 

Hmmm, why are you surprised? Could it be that your prior assumption was incorrect?

 

CNN has been broadcasting poll results for months - many of them more favorable to Trump than this one

 

Way too early to start declaring winners. The campaign hasn’t even started yet. Wait until every commercial break and every social media feed is saturated with audio and video of Trump being a complete douchebag.

Viewing former presidents on a more positive light is standard. But the democrats will make everyone remember real fast what a piece of shit Trump is.

 

Remember what happened the last time a candidate for potus and their supporters viewed it as an inevitability and more of a coronation?

 

Nah, I just find it interesting when information surprises people but never makes them reassess the set of prior assumptions.

 

Edgy.

I noticed you deleted your surprise that CNN accurately published this poll, because they usually......what, don't accurately publish polls? Didn't really fit in with your victimhood narrative?

 

But he is presumed innocent until a jury actually returns verdict.

 

I'm not surprised CNN published their results of the poll. You were. So your response doesn't make logical sense.