CNN: Biden's "devastating" latest poll, could give Trump the White House.

The Feds have a 90% conviction rate. And there's plenty of evidence we already know about regarding Trump's plans to illegally overturn the election. Call me when a ham sandwich is part of an insurrection, or has its own set of fake electors. Or has boxes full of top secret information stored in its bathroom....

And I'm not talking about this one:

 

The statistics are very skewed. About 10% of fed cases are dropped/dismissed. Of the convictions, a large percentage are pled down. There aren’t good statistics on that outcome. You can be indicted on 10 counts of felony money laundering and plead guilty to one count of misdemeanor jaywalking. But the feds will call that a conviction. Look at what Hunter Biden tried to do.

 

Unless I'm sadly mistaken, they have Trump on tape, speaking plain English to the Georgia secretary of state. To paraphrase: "Find me enough votes to change the election.... All you have to do is say you miscalculated.... My friends will take care of the rest."

Play that for a jury and see how long they deliberate.

 

A guilty plea is still an admission of guilt. And means the person wasn't innocent. And considering all the evidence against Trump in both the docs case and election interference case, really think he's going to cleared of all charges?

 

According to this personal injury attorney, a murder conviction pled down to manslaughter isn't really a conviction. Hilarious.

 

Have you read the Fed and GA indictments yet? And if Trump wants to plea down to avoid jail time, even if he pleads guilty to a bunch of misdemeanors, fine by me.

 

No because he said the words and the charges in the indictment are irrelevant. There must be some pictures he is looking at.

 

And guilty pleas don't count. We all knew why people plea guilty too. It's not because they are innocent, and have potential exculpatory evidence. It's because the conviction gives people the street cred they do desire!

 

Speaking of Hunter Biden, it's also not that uncommon to not even charge taxpayers who to file tax returns with tax evasion if they later pay all of their back taxes plus interest and penalties as did Hunter nor is it very common to prosecute failure to disclose information on a federal firearms form as a standalone offense. I recall that one poster cited the case of the rapper Kodak Black who was prosecuted for failure to disclose a felony on the form while conveniently not mentioning that Black had a long history of arrests and/or convictions for violent felonies in addition to his failure to properly complete the form.

 

Panic Button? More Brutal Polling for Democrats (townhall.com)

Democrats can feel the heartburn rising in their throats. It's beginning to dawn on them that Joe Biden could well lose next year's election, even if he's pitted against his preferred opponent in Donald Trump. Faced with the prospects of (a) an unpopular incumbent who seems intent to run again, (b) a closing window with just a few months to go until the nominating process begins, and (c) no clear alternative with any sort of national campaign infrastructure, they may have no choice but to shove all of their eggs into the Biden basket and hope for the best. Yes, Trump would arrive in a general election weighed down by tons of exploitable baggage, so they're hoping that would be enough to clinch another win. But it may not. It's not hard to see why the lefty chattering class and media are growing increasingly anxious -- and it's not just because Trump has edged out in front of Biden in the Real Clear Politics average. Some of the specific findings in a handful of recent polls are just brutal for Biden and his party. For example:

Suffolk University, Sawyer Business School and USA TODAY Poll: Do you feel the economy is...? Improving 20% Getting worse 70% . Who do you trust more to improve the economy? (R) Trump 47% (D) Biden 36% Independents (R) Trump 46% (D) Biden 26


Barely one-third of voters think this president is doing a good job on the economy. The president and his team have seared his name onto that economy, embracing the term "Bidenomics," and insisting that it's working. By wide margins, Americans disagree. For that reason, Trump holds a double-digit lead hypothetical lead over the incumbent on the top issue in the country. In short, people were doing a lot better under the previous administration, especially pre-COVID. They don't just know that based on data, they feel it. Among independent voters -- the critical voting bloc with whom Trump struggles, based on myriad factors -- Trump's lead on the economy expands from 11 points overall to 20 full points. That's a big deal. Why does the overwhelming majority of the electorate believe the economy is getting worse? It's quite simple: Everything costs a lot more than it did when Biden took office. Just look at this, and note the start date of the inflation boom:

 

RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Trump (R) Biden (D) * Spread
RCP Average 8/24 - 9/18 -- -- 45.1 44.5 Trump +0.6
Yahoo News 9/14 - 9/18 1097 RV 3.3 44 44 Tie
Morning Consult 9/15 - 9/17 6000 RV 1.0 42 42 Tie
CBS News 9/12 - 9/15 2680 LV 2.6 50 49 Trump +1
Rasmussen Reports 9/11 - 9/13 979 LV 3.0 42 43 Biden +1
Harvard-Harris 9/12 - 9/14 2103 RV -- 44 40 Trump +4
FOX News 9/9 - 9/12 1012 RV 3.0 48 46 Trump +2
Quinnipiac 9/7 - 9/11 1726 RV 2.4 46 47 Biden +1
The Messenger/HarrisX 9/6 - 9/11 3015 RV 1.8 44 43 Trump +1
Economist/YouGov 9/10 - 9/12 1334 RV 3.0 43 44 Biden +1
CNN 8/25 - 8/31 1259 RV 3.6 47 46 Trump +1
Wall Street Journal 8/24 - 8/30 1500 RV 3.6 46 46 Tie

 

Right wing polls say what?

 

Last two elections were razor thin. Polls wont be helpful unless one of the candidates starts pulling away from the other. Biden’s marketing is very poor but Trump is a disaster and the worst candidate the GOP could put up.

 

it's really bizarrely bad. Biden hasn't done a terrible job, but he has no charisma and there's little faith in him, especially going all to way to Jan. 2029.
And Trump is simply the scummiest imaginable. Impossible to understand the appeal of a fat, dishonest, ignorant, self-centered jerk who is more than happy to toss our democracy to feed his ego. ...

 

Makes me ponder (since campaigns have been televised at least) how many times the less charismatic candidate has won the presidential election. The most obvious is Biden beating Trump in 2020. Carter versus Ford?

 

How do you measure charisma? How do you control for hindsight bias?

 

Ha, fair questions. "I know when I see it" isn't a good answer and not sure if it can be objectively measured. My gut tells me that Biden would probably not have been a celebrity had he not gone into politics whereas Reagan and Trump were already famous celebrities when they got into politics. I do think personality or charisma or whatever we want to call it plays a pretty big factor. We're obviously seeing that with DeSantis in the primary.

 

I don't disagree with anything you say. I'm just cognizant of the fact that we are also vulnerable to group bias (responding to others' perceptions, especially media accounts) and a feedback loop (once a candidate gets acceptance from crowds, it becomes a source of connection, which makes that candidate more "charismatic", and so on). Plus, I have a hard time attributing "charisma" to DT, given it's etymology. If he has it, it's the dark variety

"Charism" is the Greek word used in the New Testament for "favor" or "gratuitous gift." Charisms, or spiritual gifts, are special abilities given to all Christians by the Holy Spirit to give them power both to represent Christ and to be a channel of God's goodness for people.