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College Gym News - The Mount - Week 9 Predictions:

The Mount: Predictions, Picks, and Other Things to Know Ahead of Week 9 - College Gym News

Looks like the meet could come down to who wins beam according to CGN which is similar to last week against LSU.

I want to see UF maintaining floor in the range scored in the last two weeks, 49.600 - 49.700, and improvement on bars, don't count three 9.800s. Forget competing against the mildcats and at UK, all it takes is to be clean through the 4 events and to be the best the Gators can be on the road. I hope to see the Gators win with a score similar to or higher than against LSU.

SEC Gymnastics Weekly Release.pdf (espncdn.com)

Don't want UF to share the 2024 SEC regular season championship with Kentucky and LSU.

Florida at Kentucky

Sunday, March 3 at 2 p.m. ET | ESPN2

Prediction: 69.11% Florida, 30.89% Kentucky

This meet should be a close one, with just four hundredths elevating Florida over Kentucky in the NQS rankings. After cracking 198 for the first time in a crucial win over LSU, the Gators are heading into this meet with increased confidence and clout. The Wildcats have yet to break into the 198 zone, although they have come close several times this season and will be looking for redemption after a surprising loss to Arkansas. They’ll need to bring back their early-season momentum and swagger to take down the Gators, whose scores have improved week after week.

Additional notes about the predictions: Kentucky’s second lowest score of the season last week lowered their win chances for this meet from 40% to 31%, but we still expect this meet to be a close one with 17% of our simulations coming down to less than a tenth. Kentucky’s best chances of winning come on beam, where if it posts the higher score it has a 59% chance of winning this meet. Win or lose, Florida has a 30% chance of scoring a 197.75, which is the score needed to prevent Kentucky from passing it in the rankings. Kentucky, on the other hand, needs at least a 197.575, a score that occurs in 28% of our simulations, to have a shot at passing Florida if the Gators falter.

 

Cal at UCLA in week 8 has finally been downloaded on YouTube. The following is my scoring for Cal's events in comparison to what the judges scored:

---------------ETGator1----------Judges
Bars----------49.5750-----------49.6500
Vault---------49.2250-----------49.3500
Floor---------49.6250-----------49.6750
Beam--------49.5750-----------49.7250
Total--------198.0000----------198.4000

Cal scored the first 198 of this season and the highest score in its history as graded by the PAC 12 judges.

My scoring of 198.000 more accurately reflects what Cal actually performed at UCLA in week 8. UCLA also scored a season high in this meet.

The reason you ask. The large .1500 difference in what I scored on the beam over what the judges scored. The Bruin/PAC 12 announcers as much as stated that UCLA was likely out of the meet headed into the final rotation with Cal on the beam. The announcers further were enamored with the talk of Cal scoring high enough to make a statement for the #2 ranking and the speculation that Cal would be able to compete closely with Oklahoma. Just about all of the beam scores were padded enough to produce a very high score on the beam for Cal at 49.7250.

I have a comment for the PAC 12 brass and the Bruin announcers, not only cannot Cal compete with Oklahoma, the Bears are not in the same zip code. Pad your scores all you want, the padding won't square with the 4 judges used at regionals or the 6 judges used at nationals.

I did the same rescore of Oklahoma a few day ago that you can find in post #618.

 

Big Time Gymnastics Friday Night:

Alabama at LSU 6:00 PM ET ESPN 2
Michigan at Oklahoma 7:30 PM ET ESPN 2

My predictions:

LSU over Alabama in a close meet. The tiggers just have too much talent and depth, but the tide will give a good accounting of themselves. The tide dropped off after upsetting UF in Gainesville but appear to be back performing again at a high level.

Oklahoma over Michigan in a not so close meet. OU will score well over 198 again and Michigan will be dragged to 198 for the first time this season on the coattails of OU-style judging. The judging will be equitable and fair, but with the usual OU padded scores. The judging may not be as bad as in week 8 because the meet is carrying a wider audience on ESPN 2.

In addition to the above big time meets, Auburn at Georgia will be shown on the SEC Network at 7 PM ET.


EDIT:

Alabama and Michigan pretty much stunk it up in their meets against LSU and Oklahoma blowing opportunities to increase their NQS.

LSU and Oklahoma both got some home cooking scores. Those .25 and .50 deductions add up over the course of the meet. Having watched both teams in back-to-back meets, it's clear the sooners are consistently better than the tiggers.

The announcers in the Michigan at Oklahoma meet picked the teams outside the historically top teams with the best chance to make the NCAA finals. One picked Michigan State and the other picked Kentucky. I would have picked Michigan State.

Georgia beat Auburn in Athens.

 

I haven't seen any updates on Payton, but I'm guessing she is done after having to be carried off the floor.

College Gym News has Payton on Florida's injured list with a right ankle injury, but no prognosis for the season. I was thinking toes or foot when the injury happened. CGN Florida Injury List:

Florida

Riley McCusker Long term Left foot boot and surgery 11/29/23.

Payton Richards Unknown Right ankle injury 02/23/24.

 

Looking ahead to the top 2 meets remaining this weekend:

Saturday, Utah at California (No TV at 5 PM ET)
Sunday, Florida at Kentucky (ESPN 2 at 2 PM ET)

The Gators have a chance to pass Utah into 4th place in the NQS with a road score that continues to show the week-to-week trend of getting better every week. UF has the opportunity to replace 197.3250 with a higher score. UF wants to raise 197.6000.

Utah has the opportunity to drop 197.3000 with a higher score at Cal. Given what I've seen with the PAC 12 judges, the Red Rocks have a good chance of remaining at #4. Utah wants to raise 197.6450.

Realistically, I don't see much chance for UF to improve into the top 3 replacing LSU or California. Insofar as that is concerned, there really isn't much difference between being 4 or 5. UF will be hosting the Gainesville Regional and there will have to be several seeding changes to get the four regionals seeded under the NCAA seeding rules.

The good thing about UF performing on Sunday is the PAC 12 judging doesn't know in advance what the Gators are going to score. Sounds paranoid I know, but I've witnessed so much biased judging this season that is totally ridiculous.

EDIT:

California 198.1000
Utah 197.7000

California moved up to #2 and LSU dropped to #3.

Utah dropped 197.3000 and added 197.7000 to increase its NQS to 197.7250 good for #4.

UF can tie for 4th or move Utah down. To do so, the Gators must score 197.9500 or greater.

The minimum score UF must put up to keep its week-to-week improvement streak going since the start of the season is 198.1525. With this score, UF would have an NQS of 197.7655.

I won't contemplate Kentucky throwing up their highest score of the season to win the meet.

GO GATORS!

 

UF has updated its SEC Champions Banner:

Gators Gymnastics on X: ".@OConnellCenter banner update! 6⃣th consecutive #SEC regular-season #GoGators | ‍♀️ https://t.co/nTvNcgqvvH" / X (twitter.com)

It'll be outright Gators after UF wins the meet with the mildcats.

 

First, the judging. Overall, I thought the judging was fair and square for both teams on each of the events. I didn't see the attempt to affect the meet for one team with the cumulative padding that you see in other meets, especially other conferences, see PAC 12 and Big 12.

NQS top 8 after week 9:

1. Oklahoma 198.420
2. California 197.950
3. LSU 197.885
4. Florida 197.765
5. Utah 197.725
6. Kentucky 197.680
7. Michigan 197.510
8. Michigan State 197.500

Florida passed Utah into the #4 slot in the NQS.

Don't be too concerned, but the official scoring is wrong at UK and as reported to Road to Nationals. Apparently, Lori Brubach's 9.750 floor score was raised to 9.850 after the meet. When this was done, the head judge inadvertently included this score in UF's 5 floor scores while leaving out Morgan Hurd's 9.950 floor score. Road to nationals currently has UF at .1 below the correct score. I'm sure this will get corrected shortly, as in it damn well better be fixed soon.

Florida 198.225, not 198.125.
Kentucky 198.100

College Gym News predicted the team that won the beam would likely win the meet. That's exactly what happened with UF beam at 49.575 and the UK beam at 49.400. UF scored a season high on floor at 49.725 tying UK. The teams tied on vault and UK edged UF on the bars which continues to be the event for the Gators to keep improving.

The Florida Gators are the 2024 standalone SEC Regular Season Champions! Congratulations to this Florida Gators team which has improved in each and every week of the 2024 season, the only team in the nation to do so.

I'll say it now that it will be a gross injustice if Jenny Rowland is not awarded the SEC Coach of the Year Award. Winning the SEC wasn't supposed to happen this season with this young team that she is still bringing along masterfully.

 

I'm not going to pick on Anya, but she had a minor deduction on her first pass with her front foot sliding back slightly. I'd have given her a 9.95, but these types of deductions were sometimes missed or ignored for both teams although not at a meet score padding level like the PAC 12 and the Big 12. It was so minor that I'd have only given a .025 deduction if that deduction is allowable under the scoring rules. It was just shy of being perfect.

BTW, Anya's 10.0 would 100% have been a 10.0 in the PAC 12 and the Big 12.