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Chinese Economy

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by G8trGr8t, Aug 29, 2023.

  1. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Chinese population drops for second year in a row

    China's population drops for a second straight year as deaths jump (msn.com)

    China’s population dropped by 2 million people in 2023 in the second straight annual drop as births fell and deaths jumped.

    The government’s statistics bureau said Wednesday that the total population was 1.4 billion last year.

    The number of deaths more than doubled to 690,000. Demographers were expecting a rise in deaths in the early part of last year because of the sudden lifting of China’s COVID-19 restrictions in late 2022.
     
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  2. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Chinese markets have lost over $6 trillion in value and the real estate market continues to melt down

    China's Stock Markets Have Lost Over $6 Trillion As Economic Woes Deepen (newsweek.com)

    The Chinese stock market entered 2024 with more of a whimper than a roar, having lost a staggering $6.3 trillion since reaching its peak three years before.

    Meanwhile, the world's second-largest economy continues to be buffeted by the same headwinds as the last few years, even after Beijing reported it had reached its goal of 5-percent GDP growth.

    China’s Real Estate Meltdown Deepens: Massive Tax Evasion Claims Send Shockwaves (msn.com)

    China’s property crisis, already deepened by the continuous bankruptcy of major developers, is expected to face another severe blow. The real estate market is likely to freeze further as it has been revealed that the implications of the massive tax evasion by Vanke, the largest real estate developer based in Shenzhen, Guangdong, are not just rumors.
     
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  3. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    One thing that is a little confusing to me: if removing $188 billion represents 17% of China's equity and debt markets, that means the markets were worth $1.105 trillion, and dropped in value to $917 billion. So how did they lose $6.3 trillion from markets that were worth a fraction (1/7) of that? Is this based on some sort of Donald Trump valuation? Or did the Chinese gov't pump in that many trillions of dollars to prop up the markets between then and now?
     
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  4. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    likely a 17% decline in foreign investment. chinese markets are worth much more than that

    China Confronts US Ally's Fishermen in Disputed Waters (msn.com)

    China Market Capitalization accounted for 10,889.318 USD bn in Dec 2023, compared with a percentage of 11,024.866 USD bn in the previous month See the table below for more data.
     
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  5. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Xi plots emergency intervention to shore up China’s crumbling stock market (msn.com)

    Xi Jinping is weighing an emergency intervention to shore up China’s stock market after it slumped to a five-year low. Chinese premier Li Qiang, one of President Xi’s closest allies, has asked authorities to draw up more “forceful” measures to halt sliding share prices and improve investor sentiment.

    Mr Li chaired a meeting with China’s cabinet on Monday where policymakers were briefed on capital markets and discussed the need to boost the investment value of listed companies, Bloomberg reported. They also discussed strengthening the stock market’s stability.

    China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index has lost a fifth of its value in the last nine months and hit its lowest level since the start of 2019 on Monday.

    Hong Kong’s main share index has also lost 44pc of its value over the past five years and is down 8pc so far this year.
     
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  6. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    “Forceful measures” for the communist government to prop up an equity market.

    Maybe they should outlaw stock selling or foreign firms from exiting their “partnerships” with the communist government?

    Good luck!
     
  7. docspor

    docspor GC Hall of Fame

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    Sounds just like Trump. I bet if he were prez, at the first sign of inflation he'd declare price controls. Further, I bet know the sheep would cheer.
     
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  8. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    China’s Stock-Market Rout Has Become a Political Problem (msn.com)

    China’s most powerful politicians are getting nervous about the stock market.

    China’s benchmark CSI 300 has lost more than a third of its value since 2020, and is now entering its fourth year of declines. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which includes the shares of many big Chinese companies, has already fallen 10% this year, making it the worst-performing major stock index in Asia.
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    The State Council, the country’s top government body, said Monday that authorities should take stronger and more effective measures to stabilize markets and boost confidence. It called for better regulations, more transparency and an attempt to improve the quality of listed companies.

    The cabinet meeting, which analysts said was a direct response to the stock market selloff, was chaired by Chinese Premier Li Qiang—the country’s No. 2 leader. It led to speculation that China is planning a big stimulus package to boost the stock market, although market participants said the details are murky.
     
  9. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    China's (plus Hong Kong's) equities markets are now $38 trillion behind the U.S. equities market, which is the furthest behind China has ever been to the U.S.

    Deflation + property crisis = train wreck.

    China Selloff Leads to Record $38 Trillion Gap With US Stocks

     
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  10. gatorpa

    gatorpa GC Hall of Fame

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    China has been manipulating its currency for years and spending like crazy to give the illusion its economy is roaring. Building empty cites etc.
    Chickens are coming home to roost.
     
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  11. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    Hong.Kong tells Evergrand to liquidate

    Evergrande: Crisis-hit Chinese property giant ordered to liquidate
    Debt-laden Chinese property giant Evergrande has been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong.
    Judge Linda Chan said "enough is enough" after the troubled developer repeatedly failed to come up with a plan to restructure its debts.
    The firm has been the poster child of China's real estate crisis with over $325bn (£256bn) of liabilities.
     
  12. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    corruption int he financial markets could make the natives restless when they find out the party let them down on the real estate and on the stock market

    What investors are saying about China's market meltdown (msn.com)

    Stock markets in China and Hong Kong have slumped to multi-year lows this week as confidence in the world's second-biggest economy has evaporated and foreign money has fled, while data showed sputtering growth and deepening real estate malaise.

    "Our argument is that at the financial work conference, which happened last week, policymakers came away with a renewed focus on financial sector regulation and the ongoing anti-corruption campaign, refocusing it towards the financial sector.


    "From a Chinese investor's perspective, the reason that this matters is twofold: First of all, it's another major sector that's going to be inspected with a heavy-handed regulatory approach. And the second issue is that you need the financial sector when the private sector is de-leveraging. You need banks to want to lend ... more so than any other time.

    "As a Chinese investor you (also) sit there and you're like, wait a minute, if (the central bank is) not willing to cut 25 basis points we're really far from any sort of a bazooka ... they're not even willing to fire a water pistol."
     
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  13. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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  14. wingtee

    wingtee GC Hall of Fame

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    Sounds like the spineless young men in the US . Women will continue neutering these guys u til they get into a permanent fetal position.
     
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  15. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    China's economy is expected to implode. The world is expected to feel the aftershocks.

    China’s economy is about to implode. We will all feel the aftershocks

     
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  16. tampagtr

    tampagtr VIP Member

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    I listen to a podcast from the Economist last night on this. A lot of consequences although there's a lot of doubts about a judgment from Hong Kong were being forced on the mainland. I thought they'd all been integrated but apparently not.

    Meanwhile, it is possible to be a little bit too paranoid

     
  17. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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  18. ufhomerj31

    ufhomerj31 GC Legend

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    Has it bottom yet? Want to know when to invest. Trying to go against my normal pattern of buy high and sale low. Typically happens when buying individual stocks....
     
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  19. BLING

    BLING GC Hall of Fame

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    How could anyone know?

    Russian stocks bottomed at zero. Commie China has the same risk.
     
  20. danmanne65

    danmanne65 GC Hall of Fame

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    The whole Chinese economy is based on made up numbers. The property bubble probably is only a third of the way to being deflated. 5 percent growth in a deflationary environment would make me scratch my head if I thought any of the numbers were real.
     
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