Chinese Chip Exports and djt Taiwan Comments

Good. We give away too much technology. If you can’t make shat, you aren’t.

 

Bad for “free markets”, but definitely a good (and arguably necessary) national security move with the direction China has been going. China (and Taiwan) are still going to make chips, we just need to make sure there is flexible “western” capacity in case of supply disruption, and that the cutting edge is here first.

People need to realize they can’t have it both ways. If you want a “crackdown” on China and Chinese technology theft, it means those stocks are down and some goods might get expensive as production shifts. Unfortunately we can bet the “China Joe” people who thought Biden would be weak on China will ignore all that, and of course focus on the downsides of this choice.

 

UK is designating China an enemy by dint of its technological advances. I’m disavowing my Anglo heritage.

 

Ouch ... This is going to massacre the entire sector in the short term (already is actually; QRVO down 4% SWKS down 3.5%; Broadcom and others down 1-2%). Most of the chip manufacturers here in the US (except for ITAR content) have foundries in China (among other places)

 

People need to stop thinking about just wafer fabs. There is ZERO substrate manufacturing outside of Asia (mostly China). There is next to ZERO (by volume) passive component manufacturing outside of China (capacitors, inductors, resistors). There is almost no test or assembly capacity outside of Asia, with a large part of it in China.

I hope everyone is happy with their current iPhone. It will be about a decade or so until there will be a new one available if China takes a swing back at the US. Also, thousands of us in the semiconductor industry will be heading for the unemployment lines shortly. Almost all of the chip consumption in the world is IN China, either for direct end use or for assmbly into devices (iPhone, your Samsung TV made in China or your Cisco Router - still made in Huawei operated plants near Guongzhou). Also, all of those Smart Cars and electric cars everyone wants - almost all of those chips come from China. Good luck.

 

By "substrate manufacturing", you mean growing the actual EPI? If that's the case, there is a single small house in the US, but you're right that's going to be the major bottleneck. There actually is still quite a bit of component manufacture in Europe, Japan and the US and there's actually a significant amount of test and assembly outside of Asia due primarily to ITAR limitations in the aerospace and defense industry. That's more for GaAs and GaN, though I would imagine that the DoD wouldn't care if it's GaN or SOI for ITAR purposes.

 

Bloviating at best. How to enforce such wishes becomes the issue. Sounds good but not much meat on the bones.

In a briefing with reporters on Thursday previewing the rules, senior government officials said many of the measures were aimed at preventing foreign firms from selling advanced chips to China or supplying Chinese firms with tools to make their own advanced chips. They conceded, however, that they had not secured any promises that allied nations would implement similar measures and that discussions with those nations are ongoing.

"We recognize that the unilateral controls we're putting into place will lose effectiveness over time if other countries don't join us," one official said. "And we risk harming U.S. technology leadership if foreign competitors are not subject to similar controls."​

 

Sounds pretty stupid to me. trade has probably been the greatest vehicle for bringing people together in history.

oh, & where are those dems that BLASTED Trumps' tariffs....the ones that are STILL in place????

 

Don't worry. I'm guessing your Anglo heritage has disavowed you a long time ago.

 

Substrate, as in the multilayer boards that are laminated together that chips are attached to, so that they can connect to the outside world.

There is almost no testing in the United States for commercial products is what I should have typed. People like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin may have tiny shops for military products where they perform their own final assembly and test, but those who supply to companies like that stopped testing in the US 20+ years ago. So, ironically, either those companies purchase un-tested die and take that risk upon themselves, or their acquired components were tested in Asia before going into their end use.

GaN is a slightly different beast, and because we are also in that market, I probably should not discuss those specifics. They are....weird.

Also, I do not believe that there are "quite a bit" of component manufacturing outside of Asia (note - Japan is part of Asia). There are many companies, they just do their bulk manufacturing in Asia. For example, if you look at Aerovoxx. They are an American SMD manufacturer, and they even have pilot line inside the outer loop in Massachusetts to makes SMDs. However, where is the volume production located? India (note - also part of Asia) and China. Also, the worst thing that happened to the semiconductor supply chains was the earthquake/tidal wave that struck Japan in 2011. The two largest Capacitor/Inductor manufacturing plants in the world were destroyed and the companies never rebuilt in Japan, they simply moved more production to their own China plants.

Again, people can find small, mom-and-pop shops. The world is not capable of moving the semiconductor supply chains out of China on short notice. Further, China is a HUGE market for US semiconductor companies. If trade with China is artificially curbed for political sabre rattling reasons, a LOT of Americans will lose their jobs, and without those markets to serve, there will be no need to move jobs back to the US, because there will be far fewer end customers.

 

Ok, now I'm tracking. My expertise ends after the chip build and test is complete. I thought you meant the semi-conductive substrate for the wafers & die. Those are primarily grown in China. When I was in the industry, we had several foundries to build die from wafers worldwide on different processes. The primary non-GaAs or non-GaN one was in Singapore and they dealt in high volume on SOI.

My entire response was based on the build and test at the actual package device level, so I'll have to defer to your expertise once we're past the component build stage of the circuit board. As far as passive components to go into the package (caps, inds, res), we were already required to order from manufacturers outside of China for defense applications so they do exist in volumes larger than mom and pop. Commercial applications had no such requirement.

Companies like RTN and LMCO do purchase untested die and contract domestic foundries (like QRVO and SWKS) to build and probe bare die and package products in great quantity. I do know that RTN has several package houses (including its own in MA) for those die to be shipped for package build and T/R (Tape & Reel)

Either way, you're correct that it will put a tremendous strain on the supply chain for circuit boards and electronics.

 

I don’t have technical expertise to evaluate this come out but here’s China tech specialist Greg Allen trying to weigh in and explain it those of us without background

The whole thing should be read as it goes into detail but this is a brief summary. Essentially we are attempting to exploit US dominant choke points.


Three Key Takeaways from the Biden Administration’s Actions
In summary, the United States does not want China to have advanced AI computing and supercomputing facilities, so it has blocked them from purchasing the best AI chips, which are all American. It does not want China designing its own AI chips, so it has blocked China from using the best chip design software (which is all American) to design high-end chips, and it has blocked chip manufacturing facilities worldwide from accepting entity-listed Chinese chip design firms (as well as any Chinese chip company building high-end chips) as customers. Finally, the United States does not want China to have its own advanced chip manufacturing facilities, so it has blocked them from purchasing the necessary equipment, much of which is irreplaceably American.
In weaponizing its dominant chokepoint positions in the global semiconductor value chain, the United States is exercising technological and geopolitical power on an incredible scale. The targeted nature of the Biden administration’s actions here suggests three important implications about its worldview.

Choking Off China’s AI Access


He also points out some of the weak points on enforcement mechanisms and impact on other countries

 

I hope so!

 

I don't see how this helps anything at all. Everyone is aware of the Chinese and corporate espionage. Can someone explain to me how allowing these carve outs is going to make a difference?

US waives export curbs for some non-Chinese chipmakers

The United States government has allowed at least two non-Chinese chipmakers operating in China to receive restricted goods and services without their suppliers seeking licenses, easing the burden of a new crackdown on the Chinese chip sector, according to industry sources.

The Biden administration had planned to spare foreign companies operating in China, such as South Korean memory chip makers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics Co, from the brunt of new restrictions, but the rules published on Friday failed to exempt such firms, the sources said.

South Korea’s SK Hynix on Wednesday confirmed it had received authorisation from the US Department of Commerce to receive chip equipment needed for its chip production facilities in China for one year, without seeking additional licensing requirements.

As published, the Biden administration’s rules require licenses before US exports can be shipped to facilities with advanced chip production in China, as part of a US bid to slow Beijing’s technological and military advances.​

 

I'm sure the designation has more to do with:

a) China weaponizing the computer chips.

b) China threatening combat with their neighbors.

 

there are venture capital organizations in the us trying to address this issue but it’s going to take a while unfortunately.