Cheap Oil?

papa djt bringing the cheap gas..u just wait, i told you he would

contango will cause traders to close positions if the cost to roll them forward costs too much or lasts too long. as they sell into a saturated market it should drive prices down further as US production continues to ramp up and chinese demand continues to weaken

Oil Oversupply Fears Grow as U.S. Production Hits New Highs

Key oil market indicators in the United States suggest an oversupply, signaling an impending global surplus. On Monday, the prompt spread for oil futures traded in negative territory for the first time since February. This reflects a bearish market structure known as Contango, indicating an ample short-term supply. The spread closed at a one-cent discount after reaching a low of five cents per barrel.

As the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a potential supply glut exceeding one million barrels per day, traders are closely monitoring the market balance heading into 2025. The IEA also notes that inventories could expand even further if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies increase production next year.

While crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, remain aligned with recent seasonal norms, U.S. crude oil production continues to rise, exceeding 13 million barrels per day. At the same time, oil consumption in China, the world’s largest crude consumer, has declined for six consecutive months through September, adding to concerns about demand.

 

Oil Glut Set to Thwart Trump’s Call to ‘Frack, Frack, Frack’

President-elect Donald Trump’s vows to “frack, frack, frack” are about to collide with a global crude glut that’s set to, finally, temper record shale production. Trump has said he’ll push America’s shale companies to ramp up output – telling supporters pump prices would fall even if it meant producers “drill themselves out of business” — but his second term follows two straight years of record US output. Against that backdrop, analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg see the US adding just 251,000 barrels a day from the end of this year through 2025, the slowest pace since the pandemic-driven drop in 2020.
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So far, the independent oil producers responsible for most of the shale boom over the past decade have no plans to radically alter their drilling after the election. Diamondback Energy Inc. and Devon Energy Corp. indicated growth of 2% or less in 2025, while EOG Resources Inc. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. expect to keep activity flat. Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub has warned of “declining growth rates” in the US over the medium term.

There is cause for skepticism, of course. Last year, the shale patch surprised the market by adding 1 million barrels a day of output, despite independent producers vowing limited growth. And heavyweight producers including Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips are expanding rapidly, posting increases of more than 8% in the past year.

Macquarie Group Ltd., which correctly predicted last year’s stunning growth, sees output reaching an unprecedented 13.9 million barrels a day by the end of this year, 5% above current Department of Energy estimates.

 

Consolidation means frackers don't have to worry about funding debt so they can hold inventory in the ground until prices recover. No more rush to produce to pay the debt

 

We can produce it cheap but the cost to liquify and transport and gassify makes it more than gas piped to Europe. Oz is also producing massive volumes at cheap rates