CBS Poll: Trump's GOP Primary Lead Grows to 38 Points After Indictment

Ironic.

 

And yet the latest polls have President Biden ahead of both Trump and DeSantis. From Fivethirtyeight
Polls ending June 8, 2023

President: general election, Washington, 2024

Jun. 7-8
Public Policy Polling A-
RESULT
• Biden 51 DeSantis 39
• Biden 53 Trump 36

 

Even if true which it's not, it's rated at A- by FiveThirtyEight using statistical analysis comparing the accuracy of virtually every polling organization over an extended period of time.
Pollster Ratings - Public Policy Polling

 

All polling this far in advance of a presidential election are nonsense.

You should go refer to the Hillary vs. Giuliani polls from this time in 2007 for reference.

 

Is that the same 538 that gave Trump a 12% chance of winning 2016 about a month out? Obviously, they are the gold standard. Citing a poll that does not hide the fact it's partners with the DNC is dumb. I reckon I should start quoting the latest Trafalgar polls from here on? The F outta here...

 

There is a difference between polling on behalf of the DNC and actually being owned or controlled by DNC. Whether you're willing to admit it or not it's still among the more accurate polls.

 

So you don’t think the Biden approval/disapproval polls are accurate?

 

Welcome to the conservative mindset.

Polls that show results i like: Definitely 100% accurate all the time, until it’s a result I don’t like.

Polls that show what I don’t like: Bias! Fake news! Must’ve been them mules voting.

 

If you really want to believe Biden has a 12-point lead over DeSantis, you do you. Everyone has a right to their opinion.

 

And as we all know, events with a 12% likelihood to happen, never happen, or the person saying it is wrong. If I tell a random number generator to produce a random number between 1-8, inclusive, it would never pick the number 7. That is just science.

 

The country was generally pretty shocked that Trump won. 12% may have even been a little high.

 

overall Hillary won the popular vote by a couple of points. The final polls had or a point or two more than that, but the final popular vote was in the margin of error of the final poll.

Where the polls really broke down were a few of the state polls, specifically the rust belt as I recall, and ultimately the electoral college is based by state.

 

No one had factored in the Russian interference in the red states. They’re basically all Russian assets now. I think they’ve put something in the water.

Troubling

 

He also is using a month ahead of time because 538's model was trending towards Trump that whole last month. It was somewhere around a 1/3 probability around election day. He is literally arguing that somebody is wrong to say that rolling a 1 or 2 is less likely than rolling a 3, 4, 5, or 6 because a 2 came up on 1 roll.