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CBO Forecasts, deficits, debt

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by l_boy, Feb 15, 2023.

  1. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    We literally make our own money that we cant run out of unless the country ceases to exist, ends economic activity and/or loses its currency sovereignty.
     
  2. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

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    so based on this post. Is your suggestion to make more money ?
     
  3. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    We do literally make more money every year. The poster was suggesting that there is some finite amount of money, and there isnt, as long as the country exists and collects taxes from economic activity (and services its debt so it can continue to borrow on good terms), you cant run out of it. There isnt a world where the state is going to do a year to year budget where you get the revenue and that determines what you can spend.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2023
  4. FutureGatorMom

    FutureGatorMom Premium Member

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    I never said I blamed them, I just said they are choosing to not have children, so we don't have the workers coming up that would contribute to SS. When my husband and I were married, we never thought about the pressure to have a certain house or car, we just were motivated to make ourselves financially secure. College was a minimum goal for our kids, when some are more tech school candidates. Now they are finally acknowledging that with the shortage of blue collar workers.

    My son and his wife, both college educated, him with advanced degrees, could more than afford children but are choosing not to; they like their life the way it is. That's fine, but the country needs more future workers to support SS. I agree on the company thing, they have taken a lot away from their employees. No one can stay with one company anymore, they don't offer any reason to.
     
  5. ATLGATORFAN

    ATLGATORFAN Premium Member

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    do you believe there are any negative consequences to making more every year? If so, who do those consequences impact the most ? If not, who benefits the most from creating/printing/making more money ?
     
  6. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    You're wrong on that point. I am in favor of controlled legal immigration which we currently do not have.
     
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  7. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    There are different reasons the state makes more money every year, a lot of it is to simply replace currency in circulation that is beat up, destroyed, put into penny jars and never recirculated, etc. And obviously the Fed manipulates the money supply to fit its various mandates (which are geared toward the wants of the capitalist class, so there may be negative consequences for people who's needs or wants diverge from what's good for capitalists). In a way, we all benefit from that (at the very least in the form of a functioning government that can provide basic services instead of civil breakdown), though obviously some benefit more than others from the economic activity generated by US policy.
     
  8. partdopy

    partdopy GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm talking about the population as a whole not your kid specifically

    The US birthrate is the lowest it's been in 32 years, and it's partly because millennials can't afford having kids

    Finances are a huge reason and any immigrants will immediately face the same problem. Immigration is a quick fix, kick the can approach, whereas fixing the culture, both family and business, is a tough but permanent fix. Bet you can guess which one we collectively choose just based on that.

    Personally I'd never have kids without my wife being a SAHM, something which is unaffordable for most. That needs to be fixed.
     
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  9. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    Are you suggesting the problem of deficits and national debt does not need to be solved? IE Remove the debt limit and all will be fine?

    I agree once we kill the golden goose the golden goose isn't coming back any time soon and US world hegemony will take a back seat. That doesn't mean the US no longer exist. It simply means the the stage we enjoy in the world today will no longer exist. The US will be forced to retreat from foreign intervention.
     
  10. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    The debt ceiling dates to the 1970s, its really just a procedural trick (its just a vote to authorize borrowing for spending that was already appropriated by congress in the past), and it may even be unconstitutional.

    What does 'solving' it look like? As long as the country exists, things can happen, like wars, pandemics, economic crashes which reduce tax revenues, changes in policy, etc. We've had a budget surplus in my life time, all that did was justify some later tax decreases which ended up creating another deficit.
     
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  11. BobK89

    BobK89 GC Hall of Fame

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    Both are a problem. The giveaways during Covid sure as hell didn't help and the rampant fraud with some of the payments is sickening. Couple that with the decision to forgive all these loan payments makes the hole even deeper.
     
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  12. carpeveritas

    carpeveritas GC Hall of Fame

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    Yes I'm aware of the debt ceiling and also aware that we abandoned the gold standard in 1971 not that it matters now at any rate. The debt ceiling does nothing more than serve as a benchmark for government to take seriously the debt we incur as a nation. It serves little purpose when it is all but ignored to say the very least. Not once has congress decided to spend within our means as the deficits continue and national debt rises. There are those that argue it doesn't matter. That may well be true that is until the bill becomes due.
     
  13. wgbgator

    wgbgator Premium Member

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    How can it be 'serious' when you do the spending before you consider borrowing paying for it? Voting no on the debt ceiling doesnt force cuts or mean the spending is canceled either. Its just another made-up procedural element among many designed to obstruct or create choke points in government. Mostly this has served as an opportunity to grandstand before a routine vote, not an up or down to formally default on US debt.
     
  14. partdopy

    partdopy GC Hall of Fame

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    More info on this phenomenon showing lack of children isn't due to lack of desire but financial and societal issues - https://scitechdaily.com/myth-busted-falling-birth-rate-not-due-to-less-desire-to-have-children/

    It's a self fulfilling prophecy and immigration won't be a long term fix. The fix is to actually fix the problems.
     
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  15. gaterzfan

    gaterzfan GC Hall of Fame

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    Finally! While I'm not yet well versed in the details of Rick Scott's proposal, I strongly believed the failure to exclude SS and Medicare from the sunsetting provisions was a significant error on his part. Hopefully, this exclusion is clear, total, and ..... as permanent as permanent can be in DC ..... so that it will no longer be a political flash/talking point.

    I do wonder what "other essential services" includes and expect this to be another mess to be negotiated and politicized by all sides.

    >>Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has amended his 12-point Rescue America plan to say that his proposal to sunset all federal legislation in five years does not apply to Social Security, Medicare or the U.S. Navy.

    After taking relentless fire from President Joe Biden, Democrats and even fellow Republicans, Scott has amended Point Six of his plan, which includes the sunset proposal, to make "specific exceptions of Social Security, Medicare, national security, veterans benefits, and other essential services." <<

    Under fire, Rick Scott changes plan to exempt Social Security, Medicare from sunsetting (msn.com)
     
  16. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/21/republican-budget-bad-assumptions/

    Republicans have promised to balance budgets, but have simultaneously ruled out virtually every mathematical path for doing so. They’re against tax increases (in fact, they’ve backed measures that would reduce tax revenue). They’ve recently pledged not totouch Medicare or Social Security. They won’t cut defense. And they seem unlikely to zero-out every other spending category.

    Lately, Rosy (as in rosy projections) has been mobilized by former Trump administration aide Russell Vought, who has been advising Republican lawmakers about how to prove their fiscal probity. Vought is somewhat of an unusual leader for this task, given that he was budget director for a president who signed an additional $4.7 trillion of debt into law even before the pandemic prompted emergency spending measures.

    He’s proposed, for instance, eliminating “woke”-ism from the federal budget. How big is the “woke”-ism line item? Eh, difficult to quantify, but whatever it might tally up to, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has already declared he’s on board with eliminating it. Vought for his part uses the word “woke” 77 times within his 104-pagebudget document; among the agencies targeted for cuts due to alleged “woke”-ness are NASA, the National Institutes of Health and the FBI. Vought and other Republicans have also proposed slashing anti-poverty programs, such as food stamps, Head Start and Medicaid. Perversely, while such cuts would likely cause a lot of suffering (and be extremely unpopular), they would do little to close deficits. That’s because these programs represent a relatively small sliver of federal spending.


    The most important part of Vought’s blueprint is buried in an appendix table labeled “Economic Assumptions.” It shows gangbusters growth of 3.1 percent this fiscal year alone. For context, that’s more than 10 times the pace of growth projected by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (0.3 percent). Vought’s forecasts for the rest of the 10-year budget window are also well above the CBO’s. He forecasts annual, inflation-adjusted GDP growth of 2.8 percent by fiscal 2032; the CBO has U.S. gross domestic product growth sliding down to 1.8 percent by then.
     
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  17. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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    Some pretty interesting numbers here for those who think we can solve all of our deficit issues with taxes in higher incomes.

    Opinion | Biden’s Promises on Social Security and Medicare Have No Basis in Reality


    The president’s implication that full benefits can be paid without raising taxes for 98 percent of families has no basis in mathematical reality. Imagine that Congress let the Trump tax cuts expire, applied Social Security taxes to all wages, doubled the top two tax brackets to 70 and 74 percent, increased investment taxes, imposed Senator Bernie Sanders’s 8 percent wealth tax on assets over $10 billion and 77 percent estate tax on estates valued at more than $1 billion, and raised the corporate tax rate back to 35 percent. Combined federal income, state and payroll marginal tax rates would approach 100 percent for wealthy taxpayers, and America would face among the highest wealth, estate and corporate tax rates in the developed world.

    Yet total new tax revenue — 4 percent of G.D.P. — would still fall short of Social Security and Medicare shortfalls that will grow to 6 percent of G.D.P. over the next three decades. Not even halving the defense budget would close the remaining gap.