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California is Due for Another Hurricane / Tropical Storm

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by chemgator, Sep 7, 2022.

  1. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Unfortunately, man is much better at climate change than the solar system. We can change the climate in a matter of decades, and Mother Nature takes 41,000 years to do her thing!
     
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  2. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    A levee might break outside Sacramento.

    ‘Imminent’ failure of levee in Wilton. Sacramento County urges residents to seek higher ground

     
  3. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    San Francisco survived the 5.5" of rain from the New Year's Eve storm (the second biggest rain total in the city's history). Less than a week later, it's looking at a bigger storm, described as "catastrophic".

    About 10" of rain is expected in some places, with winds up to 50 mph. (Not quite a hurricane! May need to try again next week.)

    San Francisco is about to be hit with a ‘brutal’ storm so severe that a meteorologist says is ‘one of the most impactful’ he’s ever seen

     
  4. l_boy

    l_boy 5500

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  5. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Round 3. As bad as the storms have been so far, they are saying that Monday's storm will be the worst. So far, it's been the worst set of storms in the area in the last 150 years. Monday's storm will hit in San Francisco and just south of the city.

    California Set for Another Round of Deluges; Monday Will Be Big

     
  6. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Snow in the Sierra Nevadas is at a 10-year high, and it's just the first week of January. They are measuring the snowfalls in feet, not inches. The amount of water in the snow ranges from 15-20". Since there are 10-12" of snow for every inch of water, that means that the snow ranges from 12.5' to 20' deep. That seems crazy high. I wonder if there is an increased chance of avalanches with that much snow.

    This article describes in greater detail where the precipitation is coming from. There is a low pressure system offshore northwest of S.F. The sub-tropical jet stream normally stays north of California (keeping Washington state wet this time of year), but the low pressure system is pushing it south. A weakening La Nina system could push it further south.

    Relentless storm train resulting in eye-popping rain, snow totals in California

    [​IMG]

     
  7. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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    I would assume some of this rain will eventually make it to Lake Mead. It needs water.
     
  8. AzCatFan

    AzCatFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Most of the rain has hit North of Mead. But next storm is likely to hit more south, and drop rain in and around Mead, and snow in the mountains.

    And collecting rain water is a project the west should have been working on for years. There are some recharge projects in Arizona, but too much water after a storm is wasted in my opinion. Certain areas always flood during any rain. If we could collect this water to recharge, it would help.
     
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  9. Sohogator

    Sohogator GC Hall of Fame

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    My favorite Tahoe resort is Heavenly (in part due to its proximity to the Casino’s. They’ve had 220’ inches of snow fo far which is awesome but last year at this time they had 180” and it just shut off. Base is 90”+.

    Alas no Tahoe trip this year…
     
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  10. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    California just finished Round 6 with the Mike Tyson of winter storms. Three more rounds are expected.

    Six down, three to go: Storm dangers (and drought) persist in Northern California (yahoo.com)

     
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  11. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    how do you explain long lost wrecks and dead hikers on glaciers slowly being uncovered as the glacier snow recedes? They crash landed or collapsed in areas without snow and have been buried under snow for the last 40 - 60 years. It would seem that the snow depth is now returning to where it was when these people perished or am I missing something?
     
  12. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    it happens, just like red tide does. the question becomes how much does man influence what is happening? it is apparent that red tide blooms are much worse when they get fed massive amounts of nutrients. It seems very likely that while weather patterns do change naturally, massive amounts of methane and CO2 released by man is helping to accelerate the process, ie feed the bloom.
     
  13. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    filling but long ways to go. many still well below historical averages for this time of year. surprised at the lower levels of the ones in coastal california that one would think would be filled up due to their smaller size and proximity to these downpours.

    good interactive tool here

    Major Water Supply Reservoirs (ca.gov)
     
  14. Gatoragman

    Gatoragman GC Hall of Fame

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  15. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    old science but even then they recognized that the closer to shore blooms that impact most of the fish and people are feeding from manmade nutrients

    but once moved inshore blooms can use both human-contributed and natural nutrients for growth.

    If the Tampa phosphate dump didn't do anything else, it proved how a nutrient release feeds the bloom. The red tide is naturally occuring, just like CO2 in the atmosphere. Feeding it nutrients to grow and having warmer water for it to grow in helps to magnify the growth rates. Having those nutrients closer to shore encourages the red-tide to folllow the nutrient stream just like a root follws a water source.

    Fyi, here is a more recent article on where the nutrient loading into, and subsequently out of, Lake O is coming from. Big ag, and especially big cattle have fought the SFWMD on establishing real time monitoring stations but ones that have been deployed make it real clear that it isn't golf courses or residnetial developments (or at least those under the rules of the last 10 -20 years). These volunteer BMP programs with no teeth, no monitoring, no enforcement, are broken, and always have been

    Florida’s Lake O BMAP water pollution reduction program isn’t working (theledger.com)

    The problem is not exclusive to this Rio Rancho Corp. farm. Rainfall runoff that flows into Lake O from hundreds of surrounding properties routinely exceeds the limit — without the state imposing any consequences, a TCPalm investigation found.

    All 32 drainage basins around the lake with available data exceeded the limit over a five-year average, according to TCPalm’s analysis of “water year” data from May 2016 to April 2021. Rio Rancho was just the worst in the last two years. Even lesser polluters exceeded the limit by over 100%.

    The data proves — for the first time — that Florida’s flagship program to reduce water pollution isn’t working. And that pollution is contaminating waterways and sparking toxic algal blooms in the St. Lucie and Caloosahatchee rivers.

    “All one has to do is look at the water for the evidence,” said Indian Riverkeeper Mike Conner, who heads a Treasure Coast nonprofit that advocates for clean water. “The impairment of Florida waters is now at an all-time high.”
     
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  16. duggers_dad

    duggers_dad GC Hall of Fame

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    This is just California trying to be Florida.
     
  17. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Loss of snow or ice on mountains is not a continuous or steady loss. It also varies significantly geographically based on what air flow circulation patterns (like the jet stream) are doing. Heavy snows over a winter can probably build it up a little faster than warm summers can reduce the snow or ice, but heavy snow years are unpredictable and somewhat random. These areas are also often remote, both for people and animals (at higher altitudes), so a body might not be seen or disturbed if the snow melts around it and covers it again the following winter. And, of course, heavy snow is often part of the reason the person died in the first place (if they weren't prepared for the weather).

    I think it was several millennia that Otzi was buried in snow in the Alps before he was uncovered.
     
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  18. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Parts of California received over 30 feet of snow during the last 3-4 weeks.

    30 feet of snow? That much has fallen in some places in California as snow blankets huge swaths of state. (yahoo.com)

     
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  19. OklahomaGator

    OklahomaGator Jedi Administrator Moderator VIP Member

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  20. chemgator

    chemgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Thirty feet of snow is only equivalent to 30" of rain. It's better than rain, because snow releases water fairly slowly as warmer weather arrives (less flooding, etc.). I think some of the reservoirs in central California are in decent shape for now (but are not full), but the ones in southern California (where much of the agriculture is) did not benefit hardly at all from these storms.