**Buzz Buzz Buzz** - How did we get here?

my major issue is it appears Napier entire's future success at this point is hitched to Lagway and Lagway's abilities and lagways's future -- basically its lagway or bust.

I get it Meyer, said, he had to have tebow, but urban was urban and we were loaded at every position on the field.

 

Thanks to Ron Zook

 

But, had Napier had better clock management, we would’v a bunch of other games, too. Had Napier been more aggressive in playcalling, who knows? Had Napier simplified the defense 2 years ago, where would we be? If Napier was as good of a recruiter as we thought when we hired him, what would it look like?

After almost 3 years, all benefit of the doubt has eroded. This was the put-up-or-shut-up year. Onfield results would do the talking. And those onfield results show us currently as a .500 team, and unlikely to win enough to make a bowl game again.

If we want to be Nebraska, we retain Napier for another year of downward spiraling mediocrity. If we want to be a perennial contender, we move on.

 

That's some pretty accurate speculation, but it's still just speculation. At this point it looks like our team is very capable of being the best teams in the country if our quarterback was not hurt.

 

Very true. But 3 years provides a good sample size, at least IMO. I might very well be in the side of “keep him for another year” camp if he had any semblance of a good recruiting class lined up. The team has improved dramatically on defense, and who knows the potential with an elite offensive schemer and player-caller (taking the very broad assumption Napier would allow it since he hasn’t seen this as a problem in the past). Yet, we have the worst recruiting class I’ve ever seen, and my best guess is that the only way to stop the talent-deficiency at this point is to hope and pray he’s really successful on the portal for the next 4 years, or hire a new, exciting enthusiasm-generating head coach.

 

We all want to get it right but you are overestimating the downside.

If we get the hire wrong what happens? Bad seasons and bad recruiting…

That is where we are now

But it all comes down to probability. What are the odds Billy turns it around and become a title winning coach? What are the odds we find a good coach this cycle? What are the odds we find a good coach if we wait a year?

Depending on those answers it leads us to our best option.

The cold hard reality are the odds are low for us to become a contender soon in any of those scenarios. But we should still maximize those chances

 

We lost 3 games with Mertz and Lagway.

 

You don't think recruiting will pick up if it's announced that CBN will be here next year? I can almost guarantee that it will. The only real question will be how much? Even if he does have an off year, he's proven to be a decent recruiter (not elite), and it would only be one year. It can be made up in the portal over a couple of years if that's the case.

The main questions I have are:

1. Is what we've seen with the players over the last 4 games just an anomaly, or have they bought in and this is our standard now? I was still a little skeptical after the UK game, but less now after the UGA game.

2. Is CBN over the "Tennessee" type games, i.e. bad coaching? Sure, no coach is perfect and these games happen from time to time, but CBN can't survive they way he has if they continue on a regular basis. This is my biggest concern. The coaching has been pretty good the last two games, but I'm still very skeptical about the future. Obviously having DJ at QB makes quite the difference apparently...

3. Recruiting. Why is recruiting down right now? Is it because of our record, or because recruits think CBN is gone after this year? I tend to think it's both, but more of the latter. Like I said above, CBN is a solid recruiter (not elite), and IMO recruits well enough to be able to have the talent to get our team to the playoffs on a "consistent" basis. This actually is the least of my concerns, but to be fair, I'm not even close to being a recruiting expert.

Obviously, no one knows the exact answer to all three of the above questions, but if I thought all were satisfied, I would have no problem with CBN staying. The biggest dilemma is that issue #3 becomes more of a problem the longer we wait on seeing if issues 1 & 2 pan out the rest of the season. So here we go again....

 

That is Gene Chizik territory.

 

Even if announced that he is staying there is no guarantee NIL picks up. You can’t force donors to donate.

But even if it picks up he won’t get high enough. If he can’t get to the top 5 or even the top 10 then what’s the point? Recruiting and stock piling talent is the literal reason we hired Napier.

Napier is going to be outcoached more often than not If the talent is equal.

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...EQFnoECBUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3bFCv_ju57ZnySobJM2G_X


2022 gator football resukts - Google Search

One of the most damming aspects of Napier's coaching acumen has been our 3rd quarter performances during his tenure here. If you just scroll through the game summaries for each year it's actually stunning to see how bad we have been. We get shut out from scoring incredibly frequent and/or give up points at the same time.

This improvement this year despite the losses "feels different" this time mainly because we are playing competent defense for the first time AND we have seen how the offense can change with a qb willing to stretch the field. That said, I'm not sure Napier can adapt overall from what he is which by the way was one of his selling points when he got here which is to say not making the same mistakes as his predecessors and utilizing analytics. It seems analytics are a crutch for someone who can't adapt on the fly as opposed to an actual successful method...

 

Not the timing, the talent pool is expanded. Its no longer necessary to land a top 4. Anyone in top 15-20 will give a chance to get to top 8-12. None of this helps land a guy early but it does increase the likelihood of being more successful with #5 whenever that is

 

Our QB's were not hurt when we played UM...we had a completely healthy team that had the whole off season to prepare for UM and we got crushed at home. We also had healthy QB's for Texas A&M at home and were beaten. Not sure you can say if our QB's were not hurt we are capable of being one of the best team's in the country.

 

It's clear to me he cannot get a team ready to play over the offseason.
We were bad vs Miami and also bad vs Utah the year before.
Bad- meaning "deer in the headlights/ totally unprepared."

Having said that- it's also clear we improved through the season.
Last year (vs.Mizzou) and this year.
That's a positive.

Is it enough to keep him for a 4th year? Can he learn to coach the off season?
I have no idea.

 

I question the same thing somewhat... The optimist in me says he learned something during the bye-week where he started practicing differently. We might not find out though...

 

No doubt the defense has improved, but not a lot of faith in needing 5 games in a season to see defensive improvement.
They were great in the first half against the dogs. where was that defense all year? Yes, offense sucked in 2nd half, but our d gave up 28 points in the 2nd half against the dogs.

We still have yet to beat a team this season with a winning record!!!

Samford - 3-5
Miss State - 2-7
UCF - 4-5
Kentucky 3-6

I'm not big on moral victories when expectations are set higher. Our goal should be to win games, not to play well for one half of football.

 

Pretty weak observation considering 2 of those were the 1st 2 games of DJ’s college career and he isnt the same player after 8 games.

 

If all we do is add one more win against a horrible f$u team, it will be another pitiful sad season.

 

Did you see our 3rd down conversion rate on offense yet we were 1 score away with 4min left with our #3 QB playing 2.5Qs. No moral victory needed just a reasonable statement of fact

 

Honestly, stung worse -- the entire season we have had the talent to compete with the best of the best, yet were so underprepared to start the season and now had us in the position we are in. We are good enough to beat miami and a&m, but we lost etc.

I'm actually more frustrated now than before, this team isn't bad like everyone had said, and how far away we were talent wise -- no the talent is there, it just wasn't being coached properly from week 1. Maybe the kids didnt' buy in, no idea, but that is the coaches job --