**Buzz Buzz Buzz** - How did we get here?

Part of the problem I have with the "tough schedule" excuse is who some of those teams listed are. Miami, Tenn, aTm and lsu all have coaches that are either in the same year of their tenure as Billy or in their first (aTm) and yet they aren't having the same problems florida is. This strength of schedule argument seems like a reach to justify the lack of improvement year to year.

 

Non-aggressive is Napier’s default, this was one of those broken clock scenarios where it worked out okay for him in the clarity of hindsight.

 

Why would a team ranked 15th-20th be a 5.5 underdog?

Why would a 5.5 point underdog have a 35% win probability?

 

Winner!

 

Probably broke up with his GF and this is the only way she understands

 

Most Gator fans do not want to hear this, but If he gets to six wins, they are not going to fire him. That is the pill we are going to have swallow.

If you lose BN this year, you also will probably lose DJ and the young skill player talent. We are in a tough situation either way. A new guy could bring in better talent, depending on when you can bring him in.

That means he has to win 1 of the 4 tough games left.

Also, keep in mind next year's schedule may be even more difficult next season.

 

10 negative yardage plays out of 58, a really poor ratio completely masked by DJ connecting on bombs.

 

The problem with the first half clock run analysis is that Billy does the same thing regardless of score, it is who he is.
Just like the game day coaching fox paws they are who he is. Folks now want a coach for the coach to help the poor guy out… would be different if he came in recognizing his deficiencies and hiring first rate staff for a better all around staff. But that isn’t who he is.

 

On the 6 win situation: I think it will depend on how the next 4 games are played. For example, if we get smoked by Georgia, Texas, LSU and then beat Ole Miss on the last drive, I think he's still gone. If we are competitive in the next 3 and beat Ole Miss, he might get to stay. The 2 conference wins we currently have are against teams that will finish in the bottom 3rd of this league. He needs a signature victory to stay. I am not sure Ole Miss will count as that. It'll depend on how they do between now and that game.

 

Sigh. No that isn't what it means. It means that in each game played we have a 20 percent chance of winning. That's completely different.

 

I'll say thanks to @Matthanuf06 both for being persuasive and for coming down a bit to 7-5.

Some caveats though:
- I don't think it is statistically sound to use percentages for isolated events. When the top-team events are back-to-back-to-back, the accrual impacts performance IMO.
- Let's say we lost every game in triple overtime. Would that be no better, in evaluating performance, than a loss? A one-point loss? One score loss?
- Let's say our five most important players get injured. But we beat the spread easily in each game, maybe take a lead into fourth. Doesn't factor?

Finally, for me the biggest one: if SS contacted the top 5 choices and they all said hard no, would you still fire with 6-6?

For me: there's lots of variables, and each choice could make things worse.

 

I do not trust the AD, nor the interim President to move on it no matter how they get to 6.

I agree with you about how they look. If they look terrible for the next 3 games and somehow beat Ole Miss. I will probably be sick to my stomach, knowing he will be back.

I hope for him, he has turned the ship and we are competitive and possibly get to 7 wins. The six wins theory, just makes me sick, because next year the schedule is just as bad.

 

Northern Illinois, Kentucky, Arkansas, Vanderbilt have all got 1 already, and they didn’t need 7 tries.

 

UK is now 1-4 in SEC play. They may finish 1-7. Auburn is in Lexington this weekend, UK may win that, but Auburn has been playing lots of good teams pretty close, so it's not a gimme. UK is not winning @Tennessee or against Texas. 2-6 best case for UK, 1-7 possible. Tempering expectations is probably a good idea.

 

He would get some credit in my book for beating Ole Miss coming off of three straight weeks of Georgia, Texas and LSU and Ole Miss having a bye the week before. That is why I really have my doubts that we're going to beat Ole Miss. In fact, we may have a better shot of stunning one of the other 3 than beating Ole Miss coming off their bye. It's inevitable that our team will be worn down to a degree. That's just the nature of playing in the SEC.

 

Good points here, lots of nuance which is lacking in a lot of these armchair analyses.

I will say that I still don't believe that Napier can do enough to save his job.
What happens when we can't average 35ypc passing the ball, or when we can't get push in the run game? Can Billy scheme his way out of that to win those types of games? I think the answer is no -- see the game 9 days ago for an example. We all know he's not going to relinquish play calling, so keeping him is resigning ourselves to being saddled with a below-average OC for his tenure

The D has improved, yes, but it's because (as far as we can tell) he went back to the old DC after his 2nd DC flopped HARD. We're paying an extra salary for nothing, throw it on the pile with our two useless OL coaches' salaries. But let's see what happens on that side of the ball when we face a QB that can hit wide open receivers down the field.

As is typical with sports fans, many are overreacting after one result. We can't forget what has already happened this season... and the last... and the one before that...

 

I agree, also if Lane is the guy. He may want to send a statement to the whole stadium. Unless Ole Miss loses another game and the team quits.

They need to be competitive in the next two games.

 

My guy I love the passion and attempts to use logic and math but you simply don't understand. Schedule = hard. This is a position you will not change the minds of those who don't want to be convinced otherwise.

Begin sarcasm

I look forward to when the rest of the SEC falls apart and UF's schedule becomes easy so we can actually win some games, because expecting UF to compete against all these juggernauts is foolish.

End sarcasm.

The acceptance of mediocrity around here is pathetic, UF should beat these damn teams as much as we lose to them. Charmin soft mentality has taken root and it's really hard to get rid of. Feel free to ban me.

 

This is flawed thinking. When you are able to hit the big play you are willing to sacrifice and sustain negative yardage plays. When you start worrying about every play being positive yardage you get the offense we ran earlier.

I'll take 50 PCT completion like yesterday over 80 pct completion we had earlier in the year. Explosive plays is imo the most important thing in winning football games.

 

Zook, Muschamp, McElwain had a combined 10-0 record against Kentucky.