Bubble Watch: Bid stealer tournaments start this week, here is what to watch

Thanks for starting this thread. I was going to start one re: Today's bubble implication games, so this is a good place to post.

• SMU is at #14 Houston today. We would like for SMU to lose.
• Memphis hosts Wichita St today and we would like Memphis to lose.

In other news - anybody see FSU's buzzer beater @ VA yesterday? With the score tied, VA had the ball with :10 and got a floater for the apparent win. With 1.3 seconds remaining, FSU threw a long inbound pass past half court. The player caught it and went up with a long off-balance three and he drained it. (sorry about off-topic)

 

SMU losing 22 - 37 against Houston at the half

 

What a crazy shot. Maybe shot of the year so far.

There were a few key losses from the bubble teams yesterday and the 12 pt win at Georgia moved Florida up to 51 in the Net ahead of Miss St. at 52.

LaSalle beat Dayton by 2 in a crushing loss for Dayton vs a team coming in with 7 wins and a Net significantly worse than Tx. So. Hard to see them recovering as this was their 3rd Quad 4 loss of the year. They close at Richmond and vs Davidson. They'll need to win both and make a deep run in the A10 tournament to have any shot.

Speaking of Tx. So. while still an attrocious loss, has now won 14 of their last 18 games. They'll play Alcorn St. tomorrow for the regular season SWAC West division championship tomorrow for whatever that's worth.

Va Tech beat Miami, both bubble teams. Miami has 4 Quad 1 teams, but only 4-5 vs Quad 2 and 3 Quad 3 losses while Va Tech only has 1 Quad 1 win, 4-4 vs Quad 2 and 2 Quad 3 losses. Miami is at BC and at Syracuse to end the season while Va Tech has Louisville and at Clemson.

Wisconsin beat Rutgers by 5 dropping their Net to 84. However, they have 5 Quad 1 wins, but 3-4 vs Quad 2, 2-2 vs Quad 3 and a Quad 4 loss. They finish at Indiana and Penn St.

Providence crushed Creighton by 21 dropping their Net to 67. They finish at home vs UCONN and Seton Hall, both must wins to have any shot.

USC squeaked by Oregon by 1 with a 3 pointer with 11 seconds left in a game Oregon really had to have. Oregon's Net sits at 58. They close at Wash and at Wash St. They have 3 Quad 1 wins, 4-2 vs Quad 2, but only 3-3 vs Quad 3.

On the flip side, TCU had a huge win vs Tx Tech pushing their Net up to 49. They next play Kansas and at West Va. TCU now has 5 Quad 1 wins, 4-3 vs Quad 2 and no losses vs Quad 3 or 4.

Miss St. beat Vandy by 5. Imo, this could be the team to watch. The committee could be looking at either Florida or MSU as the 7th SEC team with how strong the SEC is this year. MSU next plays at home vs Auburn coming off another loss and then at A&M to close the season. Would be great if they lose both of these games knocking them out. Of course won't matter if Florida also loses their last 2 games.

 

One thing that really hurts us this year is that the ACC and Big Ten are over rated. They will get over seeded and have too many team in. The two best conferences this year are the Big Twelve and the SEC. The SEC had been down for a few years but now it is strong.

 

Texas Southern played a very difficult early season all on the road: Oregon, St Mary's, Washington, Air Force, NC State, BYU and LA Tech before playing Florida.

 

Illinois up vs Michigan by 10 late in the 1st half. Need Michigan to lose.

Houston came back to beat SMU by 14 pts. SMU came in with a Net of 46.

 

Palm had Tx Southern in the tourney on Friday. I had to read it twice. I guess he thought they’d win their tournament. Crazy how things turn out. Maybe if they get in the committee won’t see it as such a bad loss??? I can hope can’t I?

“Wes Chandler was Percy Harvin before Percy Harvin was born.”

“

 

Hopefully we get matched up against MSU in the SEC tourney & win, knocking them out. TCU & Michigan may be difficult to pass due to their Q1 wins.

 

As an Illinois alum (masters and PhD) I always like it when the Illini beat the Wolverines in anything.

 

i'm not concerned about an upset in another conference tournament stealing a florida bid

 

any fights?

 

I agree. Helps us. But please outlaw posting any fsu highlights on this board. Burns my eyes.

 

We expect you to break out the Champagne Lurker!

 

"Bid Stealers." I like that term. When I go fishing at a pond nearby, I end up swearing at the bait stealers, those too-small-to-eat panfish that have too-small mouths, and only snatch bait off the hook without ever taking the hook. My enemies.

 

I'm kind of surprised that Lunardi has Rutgers as his last team in. Rutgers has a Net of 82 with a record of 16-12, which is not good especially for a team to get selected for an at large bid. Rutgers is 5-5 vs Quad 1 which is really good, but they're also just 3-4 vs Quad 2 and 2-2 vs Quad 3. Throw in the fact they easily have the worst Quad 4 loss of any of the bubble teams when they lost to Lafayette with a Net of 312. They also lost at Maine with a Net of 191. Rutgers best out of conference win is vs Clemson (Net 85) and the next best is Rider (Net 260). In fact, they have one of the worst out of conference SOS in the country.

I know that when bad losses are put into Florida's bio that Maryland is included (which I personally think was a bad loss), but on paper they have a Net of 90 which counts as a Quad 2 loss.

Rutgers has now lost 3 in a row and to me I would think they would have to win tonight at Indiana or they're going to need a run to the Big 10 Finals, but these bracketologists must be looking at something else.

Of course if Florida loses tonight vs Vandy than most likely that will be it for their chances, but I just don't understand what criteria some of these bracketologists use for their at large predictions.

 

Rutgers 5 quad 1 wins are all against nationally ranked teams.

 

Good point. Was just curious as to what the criteria is to get an at large bid this year. I guess its Quad 1 wins vs ranked teams almost disregarding all of their bad losses and their terrible non-conference schedule. Their only non-conference top 100 Net win is Clemson with a Net of 85 and the next best win was vs Merrimack with a Net of 295 (in my earlier post I said it was Rider, but that game was canceled). Also had to go to OT to beat Lehigh (Net 301).

At the same time they have non-conference losses at Seton Hall (no shame there), DePaul (Net 105), at UMASS (Net 191), Lafayette at home (Net 312).

I remember not long ago when the non-conference was so important, as well as neutral/road games. They have a road record of 3-9 with no neutral court games. They play great at the RAC. This is coming from someone who grew up in Northern NJ, graduated high school there and got my MBA from Rutgers, so I cheer for them to win (of course a far distant 2nd to UF).