Biden declares Russia already lost

LOL, he wants war even worse than you do.

 

“What is important to understand, is that Zelensky is a puppet, and Ukraine a vassal state, this is a proxy war. Zelensky’s wishes are of no consequences, it’s the puppet masters, that have been engineering a conflict against Russia for decades, they are the ones sending weapons and money to drag and escalate the conflict.”

— retired US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor —

 

Is would not be good for Russia to "lose" financially and win militarily. The economic loss would certainly set them back for a few years, but a military victory would only embolden them to invade other countries after they re-built. It would normalize conquest and subjugation. This invasion is an opportunity of a lifetime for people who care about global freedom and democracy. For simple-minded people who enjoy watching people in other countries suffer to make themselves feel better about their lot in life, this war doesn't matter. If a smart person wants to save money, they should save it elsewhere. The weapons we are sending are dirt cheap compared to the increased defense spending we will endure for the next generation if Russia wins.

 

I predict that Russia will defeat Ukraine and not move on to invade other countries.

This differs from the US devastating proxy countries, to no good end, and then moving to the next proxy country to devastate.

 

It's reasonable to infer Putin assumed that when Russia invaded Ukraine the war would be over in short order and that Zelensky would be replaced a pro-Russian puppet someone similar to Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus. Didn't happen. The war is most likely to end with an armistice (not a formal peace treaty) with Russian control of Ukraine returning to what it was prior to February 2022. Under a best case scenario for Putin Russia may be able to retain some of its gains it made as a result of the invasion. Even under that scenario I wouldn't call the invasion a victory for Putin considering that Russia will be facing a Ukraine armed with state of the art Western weapons whether or not it becomes a formal member of NATO and that's not to mention that Putin will now be confronted with two new formerly neutral countries that have become NATO members including Finland which shares an 800-mile border with Russia and Sweden which effectively controls the Baltic Sea outlet that the Russian Navy has use to transit from its Baltic Sea bases to the North Atlantic. Given that the Russia failed in accomplish the original goal of the invasion and that it will be in a worse position militarily than it was prior to the invasion it's not inaccurate to say that that Russia has already lost the war.

 

I guess I missed when Putin assured the war would be over in a jiffy. The first indication that a self-reinforcing narrative was being spun, to imply Russia was sputtering, was the supply chain outside of Kyiv grew from 5km to 20km to 30km to 50km and then finally 65km.

The second indication was when Russia was supposed to capture a city of four million with probably no more than 25k troops.

Even now, nearly a year and a half on, and Russia probably has no more than 150k troops distributed along a nearly 1,000km line.

 

While conceding that Putin probably never said that the war would be over in a jiffy, considering that his models were most likely the Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Hungary in 1956 when Soviets marched in and eliminated any resistance in short order (there was virtually none in Czechoslovakia and the resistance in Hungary was put down in around six weeks) it's reasonable to assume that he believed the invasion would have been over in short order and even in Ukraine itself the resistance was minimal in 2014 when the Russians annexed Crimea and the eastern part of the Donbas.

 

to wit: the initial thrust was at Kyiv. After that failed the revisionist bs started.

 

I’ll meet you halfway …

Putin may have hoped for something like Hungary or Czechoslovakia. And the modest contingent he sent to Kyiv was apparently enough to force Zelensky to the negotiating table.

Reportedly an agreement was in the offing in talks brokered by Turkey. Then Bozo the Clown, AKA: Boris Johnson, channeling his inner Churchill, swooped in and persuaded Zelensky to fight along with assurances that NATO would provide all the weaponry it needed to resist Russia to the end.

And so Russia adapted its military for the long game.

To wit: last year Russia announced plans to grow its contract troops to 1.5 million of which probably no more than one/tenth that are on or near the frontlines.

Surmise: Russia is waiting for NATO (including the U.S.) to officially enter the fray.

 

Wouldn’t it be more accurate to say “why can’t we just let Ukraine have it?” After all, it’s Ukraine’s country being blown up. Not Russia.

 

Who is Ukraine that they get to “let” Russia do anything ?

 

Ukraine: How do you win an unwinnable war? Well, the élite answer has been through narrative. By insisting against reality that Ukraine is winning, and Russia is ‘cracking’. But such hubris eventually is busted by facts on the ground. Even the western ruling classes can see their demand for a successful Ukrainian offensive has flopped. At the end, military facts are more powerful than political waffle: One side is destroyed, its many dead become the tragic ‘agency’ to upending dogma.

MoA - Ukraine Sitrep - Reality Defeats The War Narrative

 

I predict that when Putin invades the next country, you will make new excuses for him.