Good article from MSN. Does a good job of showing what a bad position Biden is in. Some quotes from the article: As James Carville, the veteran Democratic strategist told me, if Biden can recover to win Michigan along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, “you are not going to lose.” But, Carville added, if Biden can’t hold all three, “you are going to have to catch an inside straight to win.” Of the 25 states Trump won, North Carolina was the only one he carried by less than three percentage points; Florida was the only other state Trump won by less than four points. Biden has a much greater area of vulnerable terrain to defend. In 2020, he carried three of his 25 states by less than a single percentage point—Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin—and won Pennsylvania by a little more than one point. He also won Michigan and Nevada by about 2.5 percentage points each; in all, Biden carried six states by less than three points, compared with just one for Trump. MSN
Dude seriously just start an ongoing thread for this shit. Not every article on polls needs a new thread.
This isn’t incorrect. At this point if I had to bet I’d say Biden wins popular vote and Trump wins electoral college. But a lot of things can happen in six months. To me you have two forces at play 1. Voters are going to tire of Trump as he gets more media attention and it wears on his numbers 2. Biden is in the toilet with younger voters, and can he turn it around enough to recover? I don’t know. So are you going to be starting 3 threads a day for the next six months for every news story that is favorable to Trumps election chances?
Didn't feel like starting a new thread but found this interesting. I continue to believe polls aren't representative of whats actually happening. The results say otherwise. A Republican just got slaughtered in a district Trump won with 61% in 2020. Michigan Republican unseated after losing to Democrat by 20 points
Speaking of Michigan, isn't that where the polls had Hillary 31 points ahead of Bernie and he still won? Difficult state to poll, perhaps?
I don't recall a poll in Michigan ever having Hillary 31 points ahead of Bernie although that I would concede that number of polls in that state underestimated his strength. I suspect it was the result of the "Dewey vs. Truman" effect. It has long been suspected that Truman was able to upset Dewey in 1948 because a lot Republican voters were so sure of the result based on early polls that they stayed home. May have been the same for Clinton voters in the 2016 Michigan primary. i would also add that the polls for the 2022 midterms in Michigan significantly underestimated Democratic support. Every Democrat running statewide won by at least 8 percent with Gretchen Whitmer defeating Tudor Dixon the Trump-endorsed election denier by over 10 percent even though some of the polls had the race within the margin of error.
In the interests of not hurting feelings, I'll post this article here: Biden's Approval Rating Lower Than Bush, Obama, or Trump at This Point in His Term
While there's no way to put a positive spin on the polls keep in mind that Biden's disapproval is coming from the right and the left. Although there is a possibility that they could stay home or vote third party there is no way that the lefties who disapprove of Biden will vote for Trump. Also keep in mind that votes for a candidate because voters love him and votes for a candidate because he is perceived as the lesser of two evils count the same.
Thanks, but I doubt his approval ratings are that good. And his disapproval rating are probably worse than that.
It’s funny, because when you look at his approvals on the specific issues, he’s -20 to -30 approval to disapproval in all of them. Which I think will show up in the vote more. There’s not a single major issue that he polls well in.
