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Bet the Mortgage: Early Lines of Note

Discussion in 'RayGator's Swamp Gas' started by gatordavisl, Jul 22, 2023.

  1. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    "Bet the Mortgage" is an homage to threads past. I don't remember who started it, but I took up the mantle for a few years. Despite the title, this is not a thread advocating gambling; just for the sake of discussion.

    Week One Games
    FL +8 at Utah - this opened at 9.5 and has moved a bit. Thursday night game
    Lville -8 vs GTech - played in the Falcons' stadium
    Utah St +23 at Iowa - line is too close to the O/U. Can IA even score 23?
    UVA +28 vs TN - in Nashville
    Cal -9.5 at UNT - go Mean Green!

    Season Wins O/U
    Bama 10.5 (+150) - good juice on the over; could Bama lose 2 games? May w/o Bryce
    Vandy 3.5 (-165) - bad juice, but they may win their first four
    Florida 5.5 - (-130) - bad juice, but we sure as heck better go over!

    FL odds to win the SEC +7000 o_O - An $8 bet nets 560 bucks
     
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  2. easycoastgator

    easycoastgator GC Legend

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    Iowa will not score 23 lol. That’s a lot of field goals
    “Let’s win this one for the kids watching from the children’s hospital”
    They then proceed to score 12 points total
     
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  3. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    $8 would make you $560 if The Gators win the SEC? That's a gamble worthy of $8...
     
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  4. Brodeur

    Brodeur GC Hall of Fame

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    I'm glad we're not advocating gambling here @gatordavisl ;)

    Week 1 Games:

    L'Ville is up to -8.5 at MGM, even that line feels too small to me. What little crowd is there could be pro UL, I love the Cards here.
    UVA is probably the worst power 5 conference team this year. 28 is a lot but UT could light them up in that game. I'd stay away.
    I like the Utah St. play. Iowa probably improves a little on offense this year with Cade McNamara at QB there, but Utah St was good enough last year to not get blown out in this game.

    I really like UConn +16.5 at home versus NC State. UConn was sneaky good last year, they should cover.
    Clemson -12 vs. Duke feels small. Duke is really well coached but they're not at the talent level to hang with Clemson.
     
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  5. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    Yeah when the over/unders for your games are in the 20s (as they were for IA last season), offense just might not be your thing.
     
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  6. GratefulGator

    GratefulGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Going by last year's anemic offensive production, I would agree.
    However, Iowa has a new transfer QB- Cade McNamara from Michigan.

    Here's what they're saying over at The Spun:
    https://thespun.com/college-footbal...Hawkeyes have named,the starting job for 2023.

    Kirk Ferentz says, "So far so good, he’s been a great addition to our team… He’s clearly our starter right now, it’s not a debate.”

    Iowa is looking to bounce back after one of the worst offensive seasons in team history. The team struggled with starting quarterback Spencer Petras last season, and wanted to move in a different direction.

    Hawkeyes fans will be hoping that McNamara can lead the team back to the Big Ten championship game this season.
     
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  7. Wanne15

    Wanne15 GC Hall of Fame

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    It makes me think of trying to catch a greased pig
     
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  8. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

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    I need to get in on the Over on UF Wins.
     
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  9. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    Yep, even the haters in The Rant are okay with the Gators being ranked at 18, as of now on one other site, and expect that we will do better than most of the prognosticators for us 2023. They are starting to see our recruiting ranking and the portal transfers as a positive for Napier and the Gators.
     
  10. 06GATORS08

    06GATORS08 GC Hall of Fame

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    I don't think they'll light up score boards but McNamara will be solid for Iowa.
     
  11. tommyvee

    tommyvee VIP Member

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    I don’t see how we win less than 6 games.
     
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  12. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    Utah line, which opened at +9.5 is now down to 7.5.
    Juice on the Gators O/U 5.5 season win total up from 130 to 145.
     
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  13. ThePlayer

    ThePlayer VIP Member

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    The line for Utah changed mostly due to a Bad Moon For Rising. o_O
    The key to this season will be winning on the road in the SEC.
     
  14. 77gators

    77gators Premium Member

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    Imho, take the Tigers and give the 2.5 pts for their semi game. They should give the semis a beatdown.
     
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  15. Gatorrick22

    Gatorrick22 GC Hall of Fame

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    This guy in the middle bet the mortgage on his team... It didn't worked out so well for him.

    upload_2023-8-8_20-37-49.jpeg
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2023
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  16. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    @ValdostaGatorFan - there's some handicapping discussion here. Kinda wish I would have laid a sawbuck on the Gators when they were getting 9.5. At any rate, this thread is just for discussion and not a means for promoting gambling. That might be why your thread was locked (unfortunate imo).
     
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  17. ValdostaGatorFan

    ValdostaGatorFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Thanks, man! I just checked and the line is down to 6.5

    I have this game 3 ways. Here's where I got them and where they currently sit.

    UF Moneyline +265 (Currently +215)
    UF Over 19.5 points -115 (Currently -135)
    Utah Under 28.5 points -145 (Currently -165)

    I had UF moneyline against Utah last year. Hoping for a repeat. I think we're good for 20+, I think our RB duo gets us 14. If Mertz can dink and dunk and take care of the ball, I can see us hitting that. And I think this defense is going to have their ears pinned back. They smell blood in the water. I don't see the Utes putting up 29+.
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2023
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  18. ETGator

    ETGator Long-Time Gator Stuck In East Tennessee Moderator VIP Member

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    I'm so sorry I didn't meet the high @gatordavisl moderation standards. I'll try to do better. LOL! :)

    No @Valdosta didn't do anything wrong at all . . . any worse than any of us who bet or talk lines or spreads, etc. We already had this thread so I locked the second. I'm doing both sides this week so I didn't have time to go find it and merge the threads. That's all it was.

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. ValdostaGatorFan

    ValdostaGatorFan GC Hall of Fame

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    Line dropped again since yesterday evening, down half a point to 6.
     
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  20. gatordavisl

    gatordavisl VIP Member

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    Wow - from 9.5 to 6 o_O. Must be a combination of QB injuries for Utah and folks making bets on FL.
     
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