Banks are Bracing for a Recession as Treasury Yields Surge

Here is the NBER in 2021 defining a recession has having a decline in economic activity that last more than a few months GDP. 6 months meets the definition of more than a few months.

Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021

The NBER’s traditional definition of a recession involves a decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months. For example, the previous shortest recession occurred in the first half of 1980 and lasted six months. However, in deciding whether to identify a recession, the committee weighs the depth of the contraction, its duration, and whether economic activity declined broadly across the economy (the diffusion of the downturn). The recent downturn had different characteristics and dynamics than prior recessions. Nonetheless, the committee concluded that the unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warranted the designation of this episode as a recession, even though the downturn was briefer than earlier contractions.

 

So to prove how it was two quarters decline in GDP that defines a recession, you decided to post them weighing a whole bunch of metrics other than GDP growth to declare a recession?

 

It's literally the first thing they say in their definition. And there has been widespread use of 2 straight quarters of negative GDP use to define a recession for decades. Yeah. We were in a recession.

 

How has the US fared compared to other Western/Asian countries?

 

Do you think that the only thing included in economic activity is GDP? Because you don't need to read beyond your own links to understand that's not true. You own goaled your own point again.

We actually were not in a recession as it is defined in the US. Easy way to disprove my point: link the NBER announcement of a recession as you just did for a different recession. Good luck. Let me know when you have it.

 

It’s always been 2 quarters in a row.

 

Factually false. That has never been the definition of a recession in the US. At best, it is a rule of thumb. But US recessions are determined based upon an examination of the entire economy over some indeterminant length of time based upon a variety of metrics, not just one.

 

Ok Joe

 

It's gonna be funny to watch the celebration on the right when/if we finally get a bad employment number, like a football player celebrating a TD when his team is down 35 points.

 

You sure about that? Every single commercial is either flaming homosexuals peddling HIV prep, or news anchors bashing Republicans. It's probably the hardest channel to watch during commercial breaks.

 

Not sure about that. Squawk Box is my go to morning show. Joe Kernen is classic conservative as it gets.

 

And we have this to say there isn't an "official definition" of a recession.

LOL. 2 straight quarters was used by economists for decades so "now" we don't use it. Got it. Good job moving the goal posts Skippy.

 

So a con can’t be on a liberal show/network?
Come on.

 

LOL. I am not trying to convince you! The commercials in the morning are totally geared towards financial professionals — very little social stuff if anything.

 

I am stating something factual.

The issue isn't your claim about 2 quarters, although that isn't true either and your own links show that too, but that you keep thinking they just use GDP when they use other metrics. Again, you provided the definition of the NBER which contained neither a specific length of time nor a specific single metric. So nice try on getting out of this, but you were wrong. Deal with it, sport.

 

Swing and a miss! You are swinging worse than the Rays! Congrats Skippy.

 

Lol, okay own goal. As I said, you provided the definition of a recession that proves yourself wrong. Now you are just hoping nobody notices. Sorry, but I did.

 

Thanks for admitting you were wrong, yet again. For decades economists and journalists all said 2 straight quarters of negative GDP was a recession until it "wasn't" LOL. Oh well, better luck next time Skippy

 

Lol. So to those following along, you posted this to prove your case:

Bold to highlight all the different metrics in the definition. But your claim is that we only considered GDP and not all the other things that YOU posted. LOL! Nice work, own goal. It is hilarious how often you do this.