Interesting article about actuarial analysis of unexplained spike in excess deaths in Oz. Provides more questions than answers but the numbers are staggering Australia Concerned As People Dying At 'Incredibly High' Pace And It Can't Tell Why (msn.com) Australia's peak actuarial body has asked the government to urgently investigate the country's "incredibly high" 13% excess death rate in 2022. "Mortality doesn't normally vary by more than 1 to 2%, so 13% is way higher than normal levels," she said. ......................... "I'm not aware [of anything comparable] in the recent past but I haven't gone back and looked [historically]. They talk about the flu season of 2017 being really bad, and the mortality there was 1% higher than normal. So it's well outside the range of normal," she said. "I'm not aware [of anything comparable] in the recent past but I haven't gone back and looked [historically]. They talk about the flu season of 2017 being really bad, and the mortality there was 1% higher than normal. So it's well outside the range of normal," she said. This came after Australia's latest mortality data released in November showed that there had been 128,797 deaths from Jan. 1 to Aug. 31, which was 17% higher than the historical average.
My own personal take, but it’s m people sitting around the house for two years. https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...t/news-story/2a33dfeeb7476765da4e237c59f59bf7
The US 2021 death rate was 21% than 2019. Much of that was Covid related, one way or other. Between 2020 and 2021 there was a cumulative extra 40% over two years, compared to 2019 annual rate. In Australia they were closed off and largely avoided the Covid wave. They opened up in February 2022. So a significant increase to a degree is understandable.
Different country, kind of related https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/12/china-zero-covid-wave-immunity-vaccines/672375/ There is a lot of concern how badly Covid will run through China as they begin to open things up. The natural immunity levels are low, their vaccines are worse and a higher proportion of elderly aren’t vaccinated. Plus they don’t have a lot of excess capacity for lots of new hospitalizations. Worst case scenario is another 1 million deaths.
