Asking for opinions comparing UF in May 2023 to May 2022

Im not a QB coach and I’m not going to break down his mechanics

He has no mobility (sacked way too much), below average accuracy, weak decision making, and has generally been “not clutch” (although I don’t really believe in clutchness). He has high level arm talent.

Either way it doesn’t make sense to excuse Mertz for playing poorly for Wisconsin because Wisconsin is “bad with an archaic offense” yet AR doesn’t get the same. AR played in an offense that didn’t suit him on a bad team as well.

 

Thanks for the response. That's a fair take.

Now, I'm going to steal your own words.....I suggest you read up on some advanced analytics.

 

….do you realize season long productivity metrics take into account all the plays for the season?

I never once said a 50 yard pass would convert to a 50 yard rush. In fact I've been saying the opposite

Clearly you missed your math lesson so I'll go slow.

He threw for 2550 and rushed for 650. He threw for 17 TD and 9 INT, and rushed for 9 TDs. Those are facts

Mordecai, who again had an equivalent productivity year went 3530 33 td and 10 int.

If ARs rushing went straight into the passing column (assuming he threw 9 TDs and 0 INT) he would still be short of Mordecai. 3530 - 2550 = 980

980 > 650. Pretty simple. AR would have had to 'convert' his 650 rushing and 9 TDs into Mordecai's passing game rates and efficiencies. Pretty straight forward, no?

Hilariously Mordecai transferred to Wisconsin to be the upgrade there.

Either way Mertz has to hit about 3500, 30, and 10 to equal AR on a low end (those numbers don't even match Mordecai's passing numbers and include 0 rushing yards, Mordecai had 100).

In Mertz's three years his season long pace is 2000 yards, 15 TDs, and 10 INTs. I get it you believe him moving to Florida will magically transform a guy with 750 pass attempts because "Florida is better" and "change of scenery".

Again I am hoping the "Florida magic" you are hoping for is right. Or maybe something clicks for Mertz. I'm not rooting against him. But it is a literal objective fact he will need to increase his passing yards 1500, double his TDs, and have no more picks to equal AR. He will have a little more volume so that will help a little.

A lot of "eye test" posters are simply like "Mertz will complete more short passes". And that is almost definitely true. But unless it results in 1500 more yards and 15 more passing TDs then our overall productivity will decline. And before you try to nitpick I'm using round numbers because they obviously have a +/- to them based upon efficiency and game script. So I'll just preempt and say +/- 250 yards, +/- 4 TDs, +/- 2 INTs.

And 3500, 30, and 10 is not some insane benchmark I'm setting. Plenty of QBs hit it every year. Hence why it almost always produces a QB in the 30-40th range. Mertz can certainly do it and I'm rooting for it. He just hasn't come close to doing it previously. Wisconsin was a mess last year, but it was his 3rd year starting.

Mertz has -65 yards rushing over the last 2 years starting. The entire point of this conversation is that people are totally underestimating the difference between AR rushing (historically elite) and Mertz (awful)...and what Mertz has to provide through the air to make up the difference.

Of course we all wish AR ran more. He was historically elite at it. More of that would have been good. But he still ran for 650 yards (including sacks). That doesn't just grow on trees. There isn't even much evidence Mertz is a better passer than AR. It is a close call.

 

Same as being a rank team or not. All the Crappie teams are included also.

 

If Mertz gets 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, it doesn’t matter if he has 0 yards. Points or points lead an offense that scores points, that’s all he hast to do. If I running backs have 1500 yards each and he doesn’t turn the ball over, and we win that’s all that matters.

 

AR was not historically elite rushing. He had the ability to be, but he did not.

 

IMO, If we get that completion % up to the low/mid 60s and limit the INTs, we will be more than fine with the passing game. But like many, I see the run game as the real crux of the issue. If the OL comes together and the RBs continue their current level of production, we will be able to score points and control the clock in the process. And a defense that is at least noticeably improved could eventually make the 5.5 win OU look a bit ridiculous. To be clear, I don't expect a "big" season by any means, but real progress is an absolute must, and I believe we will see it.

 

Nah...if that was Woody, he would have probably thrown a punch to emphasize his point.

 

C'mon, give it a shot and get this thread kicked. Reading thru this continuous nonsensical back and forth is far worse than most TH threads.

 

This thread had so much promise...

Just because you scream the loudest or longest on a message board doesn't make your stance the right one.

Team chemistry, desire and comfort in the system will impact the scoreboard too. It's my opinion we are a much better team right now vs May 2022.

 

Count me as one who thinks a civil debate between @Matthanuf06 and @LS1 would be quite informative. Alas, turned into mutual straw manning and mouth stuffing.

For QB, I'd love to see a 3-and-5 slant result in a 6 yard completion at a rate that didn't rhyme with "monthly".

 

Thanks pal
pass

 

That isn't a very good example...Bo Nix was the same QB he was at Auburn against good defenses (like the ones you generally find in the SEC)

 

Wow...I'm not sure how such a simple concept can be turned into such a fuss. For Mertz to equal AR he must:

1. Throw the same number of TD's and an extra TD for every rushing TD that AR had.
2. Throw for the same amount of yards that AR had combined rushing and passing.
3. Limit sacks or compensate for them by throwing for an additional amount of yards over AR's combined rushing and passing total.
   
4. Limit interceptions to no more than AR threw.

That's it. Very simple. To be better than AR he needs to exceed those metrics. Whether he can do that remains to be seen. However, I agree with @lizardbreath that the OL and our rushing game by our RB's will have a lot more to say about how successful Mertz is or can be this year.

 

You mean a basic play that anyone should be able to make?

 

Yep, it’s no problem if we have five yard slants and the rbs punch it in every time and Mertz has zero tds on the year as long as we score and don’t turn it over.

 

Actually, its much simpler than your 4 points above most of which are incorrect. For Mertz to equal AR he needs to facilitate an offense that produces the same amount offensive point production and a 6-7 record. Anything better is an improvement. The QB position is a facilitator and metrics are a ranking indicator against other players at the same position. Mertz could produce negative rushing yds on the season but 5-10 short scramble plays (1-5yds) to extend a scoring drive throughout the season could be lost in net sacks.

Total positional TDs matter less if he moves the team into the redzone and a rushing TD occurs.

With a potentially improved defense and return game producing improved starting field position the burden of moving the team long distances is lessened hence the fallacy of individual production as a measurement. Wrt point 4 he simply needs a better att/int %. Actual numbers aren't relevant

 

Agreed, but I was just comparing how Mertz could compare to AR in a vacuum. Of course team statistics and goals are much more important than any single player's production.

 

Yup...that'd be the one...

 

This has me curious. If we improve significantly it will be some combination of improved talent and a better scheme but I will wonder how in over his head was Toney if any and the bigger question, why didn't Napier recognize that?

I'm firmly in support of Napier for a number of reasons but I did have a few concerns that leave me waiting to see how much he evolves. A few things in particular jumped out to me:

Lack of shoring up linebacker depth from the portal given our dearth going into the season. He did a great job with the MJ, Pearsall and Torrence but the defense needed help.

His effusive praise of AR after Utah. I get the praise in public correct in private method but the comment "my wife can call plays with that guy at QB" was a bit much given the subsequent skeletons unveiled in the following weeks about ARs deficiencies.

3rd Quarter performances were abysmal. Conversely, the team showed fight in most all of the 4th quarters but why were we so outplayed on both sides of the ball in the 3rd? Even Utah dominated the 3rd while failing to fully capitalize on long clock controlling drives.

I'm very curious to see how we do coming out of the half this year.