Asking for opinions comparing UF in May 2023 to May 2022

Mertz has three years of history. There is a reason why he transferred instead of going pro. If this magical film exists for Mertz and not AR then why was AR a top pick and Mertz a transfer?

And why does going from Wisconsin 20-22 to Florida 23 mean some instant leap? Are we some powerhouse program that churns on elite QBs? If Napier was this QB whiz that you are implying then why did a top 5 pick play like the 30th best in all of football? It’s a pretty big leap to say his wizardry will work for Mertz but wouldn’t for AR.

EPA isn’t perfect, no metric is. But it’s a heck of a lot better than the eye test coming from some random poster on GC.

It’s fine if you are going on blind faith. That’s what being a fan is. But that’s clearly what you are doing. Outside of a segment of UF fans there isn’t a person alive that thinks Mertz > AR… or even that Mertz 2023 will be better than AR 2022. Again I’m hoping it happens. But the evidence is against it

I’m definitely not rooting against Mertz. The hope is a better d, better pass catchers, an O that fits the QB a little better, and Mertz taking a leap gets us competent to good QB play. There is a path…it’s just narrow

 

AR is WAYYYYY more gifted than Mertz. I think AR will have a pro career that Mertz can only dream of. Your assumptions are wrong.

To answer your other questions, it's simple: VARIABLES. Different offense, different coaches, completely different situation. Mertz was in a bad situation with an archaic offense and very little talent around him. A worse situation than AR, a more archaic offense than AR, and worse talent around him than AR. The playcalling absolutely set him up to fail. Maybe you'll call them excuses, or maybe they are legit factors, only one way to find out. I have no idea how Mertz will play for Florida in '23, but I really don't care about his stats at Wisconsin, because they don't matter.

If you take all those big explosive runs from AR last year, generally speaking, I'm willing to bet they would be negated by all the easy short/medium throws he missed.

 

Yep. I could say something very relevant right now that would get this sent straight to TH.

So I won’t.

 

I’m not sure what you mean by negated in this context. He was ~35th with his elite running and terrible short passing. If the both normalized he’d probably be similar. Nobody is saying he was flawless or even great. If he kept his running + had good short passing he would have been in NYC for the Heisman ceremony

 

These guys will get you screwed around where you’re arguing silly shit like that. Be vewwy vewwy careful

 

Let's keep this thread on track. We have talked about AR plenty.

What, specifically, do you think Mertz needs to work on to improve in '23? What are his strengths as a passer, and what are his weaknesses?

Again, I'm talking specific traits related to his game on the field, not "statistics" from his last three years. Do you think he sees the field well? Do you think he can identify/adjust reads pre and post snap? Do you think he is mentally quick enough to get through his progressions? Do you think he needs to be better at getting the ball out of his hands before taking a sack? Do you think he can only complete passes within a clean pocket? Do you think he throws an accurate/catchable ball at short, medium, long depths? Do you think he has enough arm strength to hit a deep out against tight coverage? Do you think he is too aggressive, too conservative? Do you think he is capable of making plays in clutch situations?

Those are just the basics; I can get a lot more in depth if you want to discuss further.

 

Sometimes all it takes is a change of scenery. Bo Nix is just the latest in a very, very long line of examples.

The bottom line is this.......if you say Mertz needs to improve on this or that or the other, it makes you sound like you know what you're talking about. If you say Mertz needs to improve from 80th to 35th, it makes you sound like a complete moron.

 

I missed this earlier. LOLOLOLOLOLOL

I already had enough proof that you're clueless regarding analytics, but this just takes the cake. You honestly have NO IDEA what you are talking about, yet you have the gall to "suggest" to others that they read up on advanced statistics. The worst part is that you actually believe you're knowledgeable about this stuff.

I bet you think if we had Bijan Robinson on the team least year, we would have had another 1500 rush yards, huh.

 

35tg isn’t good. It’s about like being ranked 35th as a team. It’s not terrible but not good either.

 

This has been fun catching up tonite.
Summary:

LS1>>>Matt
It was an ass whoopin

Go Gators

 

You clearly have little idea how statistics or even football works

You seriously believe a bad player switching teams suddenly becomes a good player. That is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. You should tell Napier this revelation…there are hundreds of bad players out there. With your super secret knowledge he can build a stacked team

 

Wow you seriously do not understand football or statistics at all.

It is significantly more likely a player with three weak years of performance continues to perform poorly. The fact that you do not realize this is borderline scary. This should so basic that you realize this in middle school.

Your argument that “but there is a tiny chance and he is an example” is just so stupid. Guess what? Someone wins the lottery, it’s still an awful thing to play from an expected value standpoint

 

A lot of non P5 QBs litter the rankings. I quickly counted 9. So that puts him mid 20s P5. Not good enough I can agree with that

 

Nobody with any intelligence would have come to that conclusion except for you. You're grasping at straws, and putting words in my mouth. Making stuff up out of thin air. The act of a desperate man who is losing a debate.

You are suggesting that a 50-yd TD run by AR, in passing terms, must have been a 50-yd TD completion if not for the run. No, not three completions totaling 50 yds, leading to a punt or a FG or a turnover. Not three random completions over the course of a quarter or a half or a game. You're stating that every time AR ran for a big gain, he automatically would have thrown a completion for the same exact yardage on that play.

You are also suggesting AR's rushing efficiency numbers weren't inflated by a number of long runs, and very few sacks (which are negative rush yds in college, obviously). It's all relative.

Lastly, you're ignoring the clear "negative" aspect of AR's passing efficiency, and substituting the "positive" aspect of his rushing efficiency like it's all equal, then applying that idea to his hypothetical totals. What a joke.

 

The question was what Mertz must do to equal ARs production. The beauty of production is it can come in a lot of ways, which you clearly do not seem to understand. Since Mertz isn’t going to suddenly become mobile in the next few months he has to significantly improve his passing. I do not care how a player is productive, I simply care that they are. But I’m also not a 1950s eye test guy that is bitter the world passed him by

 

^ show me where I said this. Go ahead, I'll wait.

^ very possible. But, like everything else in football and in life, it is important to consider the context. That's not even the point, so stop moving goalposts.

I understand it much, much better than you. The 1950's have nothing to do with it, but go ahead, keep using that line. You keep proving how clueless you are with each post.

 

What on earth are you even talking about? I never once said a 50 yard rushing TD would convert into a 50 yard passing TD

It feels like I’m talking to a Stone Age guy

I’ll speak slow for you

AR finished about 35th in the country with his stats

We can see what other pass only (like Mertz) QB profiles looked like that finished near AR last year

Therefore it’s pretty basic math to determine what Mertz must throw for including TDs and picks to equal AR

Not rocket science

It’s pretty damn stupid to retort with “one of those passes may have been a 50 yard bomb for a TD”. No shit. That’s obviously accounted for in the season long productivity metrics

 

Hey @Matthanuf06 I'm still waiting on a reply to this if you would care to take a crack at it......

 

Tanner Mordercai went 3500, 33 TD, 10 picks, and 100 rushing yards and finished one spot ahead of AR.

That gives a pretty good indication what Mertz has to do to equal AR. His rushing will be a bit lower so his passing will have to be a bit better (either cumulatively or efficiently) than Mordercai

 

That is, literally, EXACTLY what you did. You just don't realize it, because you don't understand how analytics work, you just pretend that you do.