Asking for opinions comparing UF in May 2023 to May 2022

Well clearly it wasn’t enough was it?

 

Yes. And for whatever reason he was unwilling to run when that was obviously the best option. And before you start-this comment should not be construed as “Anti AR”. It’s not.

 

And it’s not “hate” either. It is simply observations throughout the season

 

No one will be baffled unless you are. They rbs can handle the rushing yards if we have decent passing.

 

Just look at it and pretend it didn’t happen or you’re a hater.

 

The fsu game in the second half, he ran left and had one guy to beat and instead threw a duck.

 

Ok…..if you have to go 100 yards to score, it matters not if the QB runs it or throws it for 1 yard. Either way it’s 1 down and 1 yard. The only way yours makes sense if you get 1 point for every 10 rushing yards or 15 passing yards.

 

I need to see how your math on this makes that an “objective fact”. Both had 350 yards of offense. By your logic, you’re saying AR was a better QB than Trask simply because he ran and had nowhere near the passing yards. You’re trying to bend your argument 100 percent due to you romantic affair with AR.

 

AR was no where near as good as Trask but this guy thinks if he had Pitts and Toney, he wouldn’t throw it in the stands with no time left or throw a duck with a clear running lane.

 

Exactly. That’s like saying Trent Dilfer never had Randy Moss and Jerry Rice, but Trent Dilfer wouldn’t have done anything with them either.

 

This isn't fantasy football, and this certainly isn't a "fact" considering there's no context whatsoever. It's just a very broad generalization you pulled out of nowhere that doesn't apply to real world football. There are way too many variables you are ignoring, and when statistics are involved, efficiency is typically far more important than totals. Your statement at face value is just plain silly.

I get the feeling you read half of an article about football analytics, and only a quarter of it actually stuck. And you probably won a fantasy football championship last year with Jalen Hurts as your QB, which twisted your view even further.

Either way, it's likely the eye test will tell us more than the stat sheets. Nobody will be "baffled" by anything because we aren't the mouth breathing simpletons you seem to think we are.

 

You gotta start that post off with “aye yo” and finish it off with throwing a tooth pick

 

For what? He finished around 30th with weak WR/TE and zero D… and drafted in the top 5

He didn’t have a great season but he was our best skill guy by far. And Mertz will need a monumental leap to match AR. So if it wasn’t good enough last season prepare for major disappointment this season

 

Obviously game context matters, which is why I’ve said all else equal previously

But I’ve already shown the data. QBs with more balanced yardage are rated more productive than QBs that get the same yardage via passing.

If you take ARs rushing numbers and put it in the passing column his total productivity would have gone down.

I suggest you read up on some advanced analytics.

And if you go by the eye test then yes you are a “mouth breathing simpleton”. This is 2023 not 1950

 

If I knew how to embed GIFs on this forum, I would.

The whole concept is asinine. @Matthanuf06 is pretty much saying a 15-yard run on 3rd and 21 in your own zone is more than 5x as valuable as a 3-yard TD pass on 3rd and goal.

Hypothetically, even "all things equal", it's impossible to tell which QB had the better game in his scenario. A yard is a yard no matter how it is achieved, and it's ridiculous to suggest one method is more valuable than the other when they achieve identical results. If anything, you could argue a pass yard is worth more than a rush yard for a quarterback simply because QBs who run more often are more prone to injury. And yes, that's actually a real proven fact.

 

You have shown the "data" provided by Trent Dilfer's QBR metric. Goody gumdrops! That's far from the end all, be all. Anyone can find any statistic to fit their narrative.

I'm willing to bet I know more about advanced analytics than you. In fact, I'm sure of it. The proof is in your posts.

The eye test tells me a QB throwing an inaccurate short pass on 3rd down is a lot different than a QB throwing an incomplete pass to the sideline to avoid a sack. Maybe you should pay less attention to the box scores and more attention to the game being played on the field.

 

More proof that you have no idea what you are talking about.

So what happens to all those AR runs in your hypothetical/impossible "all things equal" scenario? Would the '23 Gators under Mertz just be punting the ball in those situations?

 

AR had 103 EPA via passing on 2550 yards

He had 66 EPA via rushing on 650 yards

It doesn’t take a math whiz to figure out which produced more points added per yard

 

Im hoping Mertz takes a massive leap to equal AR. Honestly I’m hoping Mertz takes an insane leap and becomes the best QB in the nation

But if Mertz stays similar or only improves by a bit then we will be punting a lot more and scoring a lot less. Mertz was like the 80th best QB last year. There is a big gap between 35th and 80th

 

EPA is a DEEPLY flawed metric. So I'm not the least bit surprised you brought it up lol

35th and 80th are 100% irrelevant. The 2022 Badgers are not the 2023 Gators. You can't plug and play stats like this, especially when you are so hyper focused on ONE metric. Do you watch the games? Do you study any film? Don't worry, I think I know the answer.

I know what you're trying to say, but your delivery is all wrong. Does Mertz need to play better at Florida than he did at Wisconsin? Of course. But these stats and rankings you keep throwing out there are 100% meaningless.