Asking for opinions comparing UF in May 2023 to May 2022

If the QB's have less interceptions, the TD's will improve. I'm hoping for a higher completion percentage. One that is in the 70% range or a little higher will mean good things are happening with the other stats.

 

Not necessarily, I watched Kerwin Bell throw for over 400 yards on the Georgia Bulldogs but scored zero TD's.

 

AR's ineptitude under center is not a reflection of CBN but of AR and what he was willing to put into in being QB1 for a top tier program.

 

The Gators are a winner if you lose and you don't mind... Me neither.

Just having some fun, Gatorhead.

 

AR averaged just under 300 total yards per game with a 54% completion percentage and 2 to 1 TD to int ratio. Mertz doesn't have to be anywhere near top 10 to exceed that.

And that average was boosted by a few really long runs. Mertz won't have those, but the hope is he also won't have drive-ending, terrible throws on 3rd and medium.

 

If he’s 30th or so ranked qb like AR was, our rbs probably get those rushing yards and our passing is better. It won’t be hard to have an equal offense overall. We weren’t exactly a juggernaut.

 

60%+ would be great. I doubt we have anyone capable of 70. Just move the chains and score points.

 

Red zone passing is where it’s at.

 

No one in our current QB room has provided any indication that they can be AR15 against Tennessee... What I think the problem is that neither Mertz or Miller have shown that they can be expected to be any better than AR against Kentucky...Even with talent upgrades in other areas of the offense, I am hoping that an efficient run game can hold the ball, give a (hopefully) improved defense a chance to breath, and give the QB a few easier chances to let a receiver make a play. I think that can get us to 8 wins.

 

A single rushing yard is more valuable mathematically than a single passing yard

Meaning a 200 yard passer 100 yard rusher is absolutely more valuable than a 300 yard passer. I don’t make the rules

AR was definitely flawed as a passer.

 

30 and 10 with 3500 yards would be similar to ARs 2022 (assuming 0 rushing yards). You are right, it’s not a huge bar in general. 15 to 20 QBs get there every year.

Problem is Mertz’s history. In his 3 years starting he’s basically an 1800 yard, 15 TD, 10 INT guy. I’m praying like hell he makes the leap

Also it’s true a good passing game helps the RBs but a good running QB helps even more. But even if we call that effect a wash that requires a 3500, 30, and 10 year to get close to AR

Here are examples:

Carter Bradley went 3300, 28 and 12 last year with just 66 rushing yards. He was the 61st rated QB

Tanner Mordecai went 3500, 33, and 10 with 100 rushing yards and was rated 45th….

For reference Mertz went 2100, 19 and 10 with -40 rushing yards and was the 80th ranked QB

AR was 30-40th rated QB depending on how you set the qualifying criteria

 

Shouldn't be hard for you to show your work on that

 

It’s about getting first downs and putting points on the board. An equally effective offense bottom line.

 

That’s an entire different long form thread. And it depends on how it’s defined. In terms of efficiency it’s way better to have an efficient passing attack than rushing. And in total yardage rankings it’s the same. Better to be a top passing team than a top rushing one.

But we are talking 1 yard passing vs 1 yard rushing. The yard rushing is more valuable due to scarcity and volatility. It’s a heck of a lot easier to get passing yards (in total and per play). Rushing yards per play are closer to a normal distribution…passing is not. The per play volatility is lower for rushing as well.

Intuitively we know this. If it wasn’t true we would NEVER run. The worst NFL team had 6 yards per pass attempt, the best NFL rushing team had 5.4 yards per carry. If we didn’t care about distributions and volatility you’d literally never run.

You’d be better off with 400 rushing and 0 passing than 400 passing and 0 rushing. It’s just that the first is damn near impossible and the second happens often. The ease of getting yards via passing is one reason teams pass more than run.

Point being a 200 passing 100 rushing game > 300 yard passing game provided the efficiencies are comparable

AR had a career 6.9 YPC at Florida. The value of that is insane….that average would have been top 10 nationally last year. Top 3 in P5

Note….his rushing includes sacks. So we can’t just give his runs to the RBs (as Mertz will actually get sacked)

Spencer Rattler 2022 is what you get if you just take ARs passing and on his rushing. It’s damn near spot on. AR was mid 30s total productivity, Rattler was 68th.

Happy to get deeper if people care

 

More productive players score more points

I’ve been quoting QBR a lot. That heavily uses EPA (expected points added).

College Football Data

AR and Mertz had near identical EPA per pass. Both at basically .31….both in the 65-70th range

Difference is AR had a EPA of .72 per rush

AR had total of 103 passing and 66 rushing expected points added in 2022. Mertz was at 84 and 5 rushing. Even if I concede equivalence passing that is a lot of points to make up rushing.

 

Yes. Good thread!

Jane, you ignorant slut!

I mean...trying to be objective is a little tricky. But here's my take. The kids feel good. This is a positive. Unity, cohesiveness, system integrity, buying in. AR was fabulous, but let's not forget how ridiculously frustrating it was last year because of inconsistency. He was a first year QB at Div 1. Mertz is unspectacular so far, but hopefully more consistent. Key word: HOPEFULLY. The defence has to be better. Running backs, better. Return game, better. Everyone thinks the LBer's are gonna be worse. Not me. Same with TE's. Bordingham has to shine. Let's hope he does. Portal possibility too? Maybe. I think the O-line will be improved once we get everyone back.

So if we have an improved return game. More consistent offensive effort. Better kicking. Better defense. Crap. That's all good. I'm thinking 7-8 wins. If we beat Utah. this year that would be a momentum booster- and it changes the landscape.

The trick is ...will consistency with QB (assuming we do get that!) equate to more wins vs the sheer mind-boggling athleticism of AR with Injury/inconsistency? Legitimate question. I mean there where the OMG who is this freaking kid moments. And then there were the OMG, is he injured, is he apprehensive? Is the corch holding him back? Crap, we didn't know. Now we know he was injured and obviously green.

If he was coming back I'd say ten wins!

I think we'll be better. With a better record.

Note: I don't give a crap how good Fla State is, Georgia, or LSU. They're rivals. People get injured, teams don't show up. Kids emerge. People expect to win and get surprised. "Do you mean there's hope?"

But, you know me, captain positive.

Go Gators.

 

Scoreboard says it all.

 

IMO, it all depends upon the definition of "improved". Kind of up to the eye of the beholder. I would say that, while we may have less talent, horsepower-wise, at certain positions, we are better aligned with what Napier wants in a team. I foresee better play, per talent level, than last year. But in the end, it is all about the QB and the O-line, unless the defense WOWS us (highly unlikely).

I foresee a similar result.

 

Florida had more PPG than Wisconsin

Plus AR was drafted 4th and Mertz lost his college job and had to transfer

What scoreboard are you talking about ?