By: David Wunderlich -- May 27, 2023 I don’t gamble, but I do use some of the numbers that sports books put out as a way of discerning the conventional wisdom about teams. If the sharps in Vegas want about equal action on both sides of bets to ensure their profit margins, then hitting the general consensus is the best way to go about it. Several books recently put out win totals for 2023, which cover the 12 regular season games only. The idea is you bet on whether a team will be over or under that number of wins, so they’re always framed as something-point-five wins so that teams don’t hit their win totals exactly and result in all the wagers being returned. Using scoring to project how many games Florida may win in 2023 | GatorCountry.com
CFN is pretty confident about our season. (Of course, they really missed the mark last year ). 4 tricky games - Tennessee, @Kentucky, @S Carolina, @Missouri SEC East Football Predictions: Spring Florida Predictions Spring Prediction: 8-4 SEC Prediction: 5-3 Sept 2 at Utah L Sept 9 McNeese W Sept 16 Tennessee W Sept 23 Charlotte W Sept 30 at Kentucky W Oct 7 Vanderbilt W Oct 14 at South Carolina L Oct 21 OPEN DATE Oct 28 Georgia (in Jacksonville) L Nov 4 Arkansas W Nov 11 at LSU L Nov 18 at Missouri W Nov 25 Florida State W
That is exactly how I’m thinking it shakes out. Then finish 9-4 with an Outback bowl (or whatever they call it now) win over Nebraska.
Nine or more will still be pretty phenomenal, and I hope your first post turns out to be the end result.
Pretty sure Vegas has us at 5.5 wins. That’s pretty low, but I would have us around 6 wins. Definitely would say to stay away from this. You want a winning bet, take the over 6.5 on Ole Miss
This clearly shows that our defense let us down in too many game last year. And, I expect our over/under to change the closer we get to game time... 5.5 wins is stupid low for the talent we have on our team, and Vegas knows how to encourage betting on the Gators with that line.
I agree. However, with our increasing talent level we also have a killer schedule and young guys who have to gel. I still think 5.5 is too low.
I too agree, especially on the O-line. One last note on woulda... coulda... shoulda... is why we never tried to get Devin Leary out of the transfer portal. Kentucky was an easy win without him, now it could be a difficult game if our offense sputters.
That home game against USF was inexplicable...a win parading as a loss. I would say coaching let us down even more than a disorganized defense. And apparently, special teams were little more than an afterthought too. Yet not so with opponents named Shane Beamer or Mark Stoops.
I think the issue is three-fold: #1 the bulk of the talent is very young. #2 the talent has basically not played together before. #3 the QB is a large ? To exceed the 5.5 number that Vegas has listed the QB will have to play better than exhibited at his former school, the team will have to gel as a unit, and the young talent is going to have to grow up fast and perform. All that in the toughest league in the country is a tall order, so I can understand Vegas hesitancy to list UF at a higher over/under.
I agree, that's why Vegas started our O/U at 5.5, but the people's bets will dictate the odds later on. It's a safe place to start I guess given our youth as you say, and our uncertainty at the QB position.
The 5.5 makes sense to me. Let's call it what it is, we are not going to have a high octane passing attack. Huge question mark at QB, weakest WR unit at UF in the past 30 years (imo), and a brand new offensive line. Don't think we are trotting out the 2000 Baltimore Ravens defense either. All that equals some grind it out football. I don't want 2023 to be a rebuild year to prep for 2024, but it's probably what it will be.
Pretty much. When you have a qb that’s capable of using his legs to lead a fourth Quater drive to beat Utah and then does his best Brady impression to beat lesser teams, that’s what you get. If AR ran like he’s capable of every game, we win a couple more games. I understand he didn’t want to damage his family’s security and that he was trying to develop from the pocket. He will either learn to live from the pocket and use his legs as a last resort and something that has to be defended every play, or he will be just like Cam, a shell of himself before 30. There’s a reason rbs last an average of three years.
