Article: No, Florida won’t fire Billy Napier in 2023. Yes, the pressure is mounting quickly.

I agree with you. I have no idea what kind of advanced metric it would take to field talent versus paper talent but we have to start somewhere. Napier and his army might be good at getting talent on campus but they need to do a better job of developing talent or making better use of their talent.

 

you make a good point that we've been trapped in a cycle of firing coaches every few years when they fail to consistently produce good football teams, and maybe doing something different by letting this guy continue to struggle for a while will allow him to figure things out and lead us to sustained success. But like you said, it's far from a foolproof strategy, and no one knows whether it'll make things better or end up putting us in a deeper hole in the long run.

we're all frustrated with the state of Gator football right now, but telling people they just can't see the big picture is brushing aside some very real, logical reasons why rational Gator fans might be having serious doubts about Billy Napier's leadership at this point of his tenure.

it's getting harder to dismiss the consistently inept performances we're seeing as insignificant for our long-term prospects under Napier. His primary selling points outside of recruiting are instilling discipline, meticulous preparation and ensuring that every detail of the Florida football program is squared away correctly, so you would naturally expect that by this point late in his second year of running things, a guy with those qualities who really knows what he's doing would produce a less dysfunctional football team that doesn't repeatedly shoot itself in the foot and displays at least a moderate level of progressive improvement game by game.

I'm not throwing in the towel on Napier yet and I hope, I really do hope that he turns this ship around and stays at UF for a long time as a successful head coach. But I also can't blame anybody who thinks we need to jump off this train and go in a different direction, and I'm not gonna act like they're bad fans or less enlightened than me - there's plenty of good reasons for them to have that viewpoint, unfortunately.

 

So it looks good on paper...

 

This is where the disconnect with a lot of the negative nellies, IMO. Billy IS, without a doubt in my mind, making things better with regards to the football program overall. I really don't think anyone can really argue this. So far, it hasn't translated on the field and in the end, it's all about Wins Vs. Losses, I get that... If there aren't significant on the field results by year 4 or 5, then I assure you he will be on the hot seat or gone. But even if he's gone after 4 or 5 years, it's almost certain that our program will be WAY better off than it is now, and WAY, WAY better than 2 years ago.

Right now, our program needs stability. I honestly was happy with the Mullen hire even though he was like my 6th or 7th choice because I though he would bring stability to the program. Of course, I was wrong, but that's another story. CBN is clearly bringing that to the program and IS digging us out of the hole that we've dug ourselves over the last 15 years. Will he be able to dig us all the way out? Who knows? But lets let him dig his way out as far as he can before we take a crapshoot on another HC and possibly start digging ourselves deeper like we have for the past 15 years.

 

Zook was fired after three years having failed to win 9 even once and the next coach won 9 his first year and a NC his second.

I’m not demanding Napier meet or exceed any “Sacred SOS standard.” I literally have his floor for next year at 8 games to not be let go. This is not some ridiculous expectation for a coach in year three. The acceptance of this sort of mediocrity, as if it’s unreasonable to expect any better, is pathetic.

Florida was the definition of a middle-of-the-road SEC team until Spurrier was hired, with zero conference championships under its belt. It didn’t take him years and years to change that. It took a good coach to get the team playing winning football, and that started day one. It didn’t take Meyer years after Zook. It didn’t take Saban years after Shula. The coaches that do take more than a couple of years to “build” a program invariably wind up occupying the second tier at best as their ceiling. Okay, so Napier “inherited a mess.”’ So what? Arkansas couldn’t win a conference game all year, but miraculously they could in the Swamp! You think they won despite crackerjack coaching on our part? Jeez.

I want Napier to succeed. I hope to hell he does. But you can hope in one hand and crap in the other and see which one fills up faster. If he can’t win 8 games by his third year, it will be time to cut our losses. No pun intended.

 

2024 is definitely that “rubber meet the road” year as Josh Pate said.

The administration needs to have clear goals.

 

I agree that stability would be great right now and I'm hopeful that Napier works out long term. But it's no sure thing he's going to make the program better - I'm glad you don't have a doubt in your mind about that and hope you're right, but let's say:

- he continues to lose a bunch of games a year while we continue to look poorly prepared and coached
- he's unable to keep his current recruiting momentum as a result of the on-field struggles and mounting noise in the system and fails to bring in huge classes
- fan support and national/media perception of Florida football declines further
- we end up having to fire him somewhere in year 4, pay a $20M+ buyout and end up looking for another coach

hopefully this is just worst case scenario and doesn't end up actually happening, but if it does, then it will be pretty hard to argue for his tenure being a net positive.

 

Good down to earth article without a lot of axe grinding, which is the problem with most sports writers that work off the same emotions as fans. They earn a living and do a great job of recommending how to spend lots of other people's money. Think it's bad now, wait until AI gets a hold and emotion rules knowledge.

 

Good article. I don’t want him to be fired; I just don’t want to see so many mental mistakes made by the team and coaches. It’s hard enough to win without the silly mistakes.
Of course, it’s probably not gone like he suspected thus far.
But, he’s a realist and a professional and a winner so he’s fighting through it. The problem is the probability we may not win again this year and next year is brutal.
I do believe he knows the college football game well and I like his demeanor much more than Muschamp, who ranted at calls like he was going to bust a blood vessel.
It seems the rebuild will take longer than some of us thought. But, once we get there, imagine how satisfying it will be!

 

A potential 11-14 record after two years is “stability” to some fans? A potential 11-14 record is digging us out of a hole to some fans? It’s hard to ignore our on the field results. I love Billy’s recruiting except for OL. It’s only going to get tougher next season.

 

Norvell didn’t have a first full season because they were chickenshit and tired of being embarrassed . We played an entire season didnt we? He still had that year to recruit and practice. Dumb argument.

 

Losing three games in the acc means you’d be fighting to be average in the sec.

 

I guess we can discuss developing talent when players are 3-5 years in.

 

Has it even been 2 years since he was officially hired?
Shit its Been even less before he could start really working with brand new players and a brand new team.

Just feel all this talk is so premature at this point. Recruiting has gotten better each class and this year by being honest with real expectations with the recruits he has actually been able to hold on to this class while recently adding a 5Star DL. Our offense actually looks better this year, and the last few weeks, our QB has been mentioned as being among one of the best in the nation. Receivers look better, defense looks a little better but WAYYY less experienced but we can see they will be real good. O line took a step back but other wise we've seen improvement in many areas. Let's continue to add to those areas of improvement and take the next step. Don't see why there is all this much concern and even some talking as if he's already not gonna work out.

 

Agree. We need to, as the young kids might say,….”Let Napier Cook”

 

That sounds too logical. All Napier has to do is recruit blue chip athletes and hand them NIL money, right? They just develop from high school to game 1. /s

I hear you, but some things seem like they could be corrected better from week 1 to week 10. Trying not to nitpick Napier because I want him to succeed and I think he will develop into a good coach, but sometimes I have to scratch my head and wonder.

 

It's entirely possible that we could finish the season with three losses and finish 5-7 and no bowl game. If that happens I think we will see CBN hiring an OC in the off season and firing his DC. The big challenge will be to herd the cats in the 2024 recruiting class. If we lose much of that class it's going to be tough to right the ship. I'm glad that I've grown so old that Gator football losses are to me much like water off a ducks back. I used to go into a three or four day funk with each loss but at least I got to live through all the natties. CBN is a very high quality guy and I truly hope he can turn things around but Gator fans will not tolerate multiple losing seasons. Even so CBN should be given four years to fully implement his system and recruit the players that fit that system. If by then we still aren't contenders for an SEC title it will be time to move on.

 

Definitely some stuff to clean up

 

Firing the dc seems extremely unlikely to me.

 

Agree. Our D is young and thin, but help is coming.
IMO our biggest problem is CBN has too much on his plate, so things are falling through the cracks.
Hiring an OC makes a lot of sense on so many levels.

We knew Napier was young and wasn't experienced like say Brian Kelly.
There are going to be growing pains and while I'm disappointed, I also see some good things.

I also want to say it's so nice to not have to read about another Gator football arrest.
A good culture will pay off at some point...hopefully sooner rather than later...