AR's Season Completion Percentage Accuracy

Hate to say but NFL defenses are tougher than college. Better dbs, sophisticated schemes, tighter windows, shorter time to throw. If AR hasn't improved during his time in college it isn't going to get any easier in the pro's even if he has better receivers.

 

Yep. CBN would call that roll out many times a game. Every time the D would key on it and AR would have to juke a guy to even have a chance. Very few QBs in the world can turn those into successful plays

 

Think I lost count after 13 in a row.

 

Elite is high 60s up through 70%

Only one year was close to elite and guess what? Napier got FIRED from that job. So I’m not sure how much we can take out of that Clemson year

His UL years is who he is. Roughly a 60% completion percent offense. If the stars align we may see 62-63% which should be in the 60-70th in the country range.

AR and our WRs pushed it to 54% but the baseline for this O is about 60%. Expecting near 70% (like Bennett, Hooker, KJ Jefferson, etc) is not realistic.

At UL his QBs were average at best or well below average in completion %.

Napiers last 3 years is 57.4%

His entire head coaching career he is at 60%

 

He’s coached bad qb ’s . Let wait on him coaching an actual qb to judge what his numbers will look like.

 

He has been a HC for 5 years. Can’t use the talent excuse…. Especially when he has a 1st rounder this year

 

70% completion percentage is darn rare for a season. 60% seems to be the minimum that translates to team success on the field. Danny W was a 60% career comp %. More is better, of course, but anything around 65% is really good for an offense. UF record is Trask at nearly 68%. 70%+ is an unreasonable expectation and will be highly dependent on the rare qb. I'd wager completion % is probably more dependent on the qb than scheme.

Kind of humorous you mention Napier's last three years because the numbers were skewed by this year where his qb1 threw for 53.8% completion percentage. His UL qb appeared to be pretty erratic too. There's no getting around AR was inconsistent and it had nothing to do with scheme. He may be a first round pick, but you'd be blind if you didn't notice the many clear misses this year.

I do think AR can improve if he just can slow himself down some. It is not like he can't make the throws and be accurate. It is like he rushes the easy ones and fundamentals get tossed out the door. If he makes 80% of those gimme's, then I think he's at least a lot closer to 60%.

 

Bashing CBN does not help your argument. We watched AR miss many wide open receivers, make easy throws nearly uncatchable and miss reads. It's on him.

 

If you think AR is a barometer for completion percentage I can’t help you. aR is so far from a complete project.

 

Gosh, I must have been sipping too much Jack Daniels that game. What game was that? I watched them all and I sure don’t remember 7 drops in a row. And you say it was 7+?

 

BN has been a HC for 5 years. His QB averages about 60%. It is what it is

 

70% is not that rare. There is usually a handful every year. These days 15-20 will be 68%+ that is elite.

60% would have been 78th this year which is what CBNs offense averages. It’s not QB friendly.

I’m not defending AR here. 54% is well below the 60 expectation.

But our O will not have a QB completing high percentage compared to Tennessee, Ark, MSU, Miss, UGA, Bama, LSU

It’s by design and that’s ok. We are a running offense that likes taking low percentage contested shots downfield. It is what it is

 

Is ARs completion percentage a function of Napier? Sure. But there is so much more to this.

As you acknowledge, BN's qbs on average complete 60% of their passes. Limited data but going with it, AR completed well below that (53%). Of the 5 years before UF, only 1 year had his QB below 60%. By the way, name the QBs for those years (asu and UL)?

What I take from all this data. AR has undeniable athletic potential! Great - I hope he signs a huge contract. But, I would never sign him as it is clear that in terms of finding the open receiver and delivering the ball consistently, he is below average. Now, might he develop that skill? Sure. I hope he does. But the statistician in me would not bet on it.

As to napier, AR had by far the lowest completion percentage of any QB he has coached. And the QBs he has coached is not an illustrious roster (name one?). Forming some sort of conclusion that BN QBs will not complete more than 60% of passes is inane.

I DO agree that I have a concern that BN will not tactically adapt to his personnel. By way of example, if he coached Trask in his last year, would he abandon the run and use Trask's incredible accuracy? I do not know and I worry he is stubborn about the run.

However, any conclusion that the upside to BN's passing offense is limited by his past list of QBs (who all outperformed AR based on completion %) and AR's abysmal completion % is grossly premature given the data we have. AR was worse than average in completion percentage and BN's prior QBs were average, at best (and he won with those guys). Does this define BN for all time?

The data does support your conclusion that BN is a coach of QBs with 62%ish completion % historically, but extracting that to eternity and with much better potential QBs is not justified.

 

5 years is very small sample and very few qb’s and sunbelt at that. He’s never had a great qb.

 

Interesting that AR's Utah % was 70.8%, and then he went downhill. (Except for EWU.)

it's almost like something happened the week after Utah that affected things.
Oh wait- that's when everyone started talking about AR being a Heisman candidate, 1st round pick, etc.

He really needed another year to mature.

 

To add on to my post...
An NFL team will draft him top 10. The draft takes on a life of its own, with players moving up and down.

I remember a mock with Emmitt at pick 3 early on. He ended going #17.
He didn't have a good combine but somehow had a good career. Who would have thunk it?
Besides many GAtors who watches ES in the games. (Like me. I knew ES would be a star.)

AR will be the opposite. He will rocket up the draft after a stellar combine.
A GM will get worried he is passing up the next Cam on short-term concerns, and draft him top 5-10.

AR will then get raves pre-season. A guy that big who is that fast and shifty. What??
AR will spend that bonus money like there's no tomorrow! He will make billions in this league!

Then the games will begin, AR will play, and no one will believe how raw he is and how many mistakes he makes.
Then come the recriminations, the blame, the ugliness. NFL fanbases can get really ugly.
And AR will think how college wasn't so bad after all.

 

AR seems like he has a good head on his shoulders to me. He’s doing the right thing by striking while the irons hot. Perhaps he’s sees his situation clearly and won’t count his chickens just yet. I saw a mock where Detroit traded up to 3 and AR didn’t get picked in the first rd. I hope he does and licks in some good guaranteed money.

 

That may be the hot take.

An educated take would be to consider what receivers were playing game one, and then look and see who actually played the last game.

 

I think that downward trend is somewhat attributed to our receiver depth getting worse as the season went on, but a lot of it is on AR himself.

Most times, he was targeting open receivers so that means he's making good reads but putting the ball into the dirt or putting a bullet over the receivers like Franks used to is a major issue.

The problem I saw with AR is ball placement. There were numerous times he was throwing to the opposite side of receivers causing them to turn around/contort, or into the dirt/over heads. That's where Trask shined. Trask wouldn't throw lazers but he put it in the right spot for his guys to make plays, hopefully AR learns where to do that. I suspect some front office thinks they can teach him.

 

Some of those were bullets 10 yards away or closer