The three Kentucky and Auburn games are all guaranteed to be Q1 games and Georgia is guaranteed to not be a Q1 game (it is our only land mine left). Texas A&M is currently 74 and if they stay in the top 75 that’ll be a Q1 game. Arkansas is currently 32 and if they move into the top 30 that’d be a Q1 game. Vanderbilt is currently 81 and if they move into the top 75 that’d be a Q1 game. Point of the post is that there are plenty of very quality and winnable games in there, we just have to actually beat some of these good teams.
Which would probably have us in the NIT. 3 wins is the minimum, although if we also lose the SECT to finish 3-5 that might not do it. So really we probably need 4 wins including the SECT to keep our NCAA streak going. It is doable, but still an uphill climb since we can afford exactly zero slipups unless we pull a pretty major upset.
According to ESPN, we have a better chance of beating Arkansas at home (60.2%) than either Auburn (35.9%) at home or Texas A&M (42.2%) next on the road. And that's despite the Aggies 8 game losing streak.
TAMU looks to be a solid Q1 if they win the games they should. If Arkansas beats Missouri, UT & LSU they could move to Q1. Vandy's performance is kind of like ours, I think they'd have to beat everyone but Auburn & UF to move to Q1. That'd be a difficult task. From the NCAA: TAMU - #71 Net Arkansas - #33 Net Vandy - #76 Net
I continue to believe that the team’s swarming defense can keep them in most games. That doesn’t mean that they will win them, but it gives them a shot.
