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  1. Hi there... Can you please quickly check to make sure your email address is up to date here? Just in case we need to reach out to you or you lose your password. Muchero thanks!

$30M in Foreign Crypto Bet on a Trump win

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by G8trGr8t, Oct 19, 2024.

  1. G8trGr8t

    G8trGr8t Premium Member

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    That is a major bet on Trump by a foreign entity using crypto

    four accounts combined to recently bet $30M on the win. is this Kushner's strategy to generate a return?

    A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market - WSJ

    Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. Its bettors were giving Trump a 60% chance of winning on Friday, while Harris’s chances were 40%. The candidates were in a dead heat at the start of October.

    Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.

    But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win. “There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts.
    ............................................
    The accounts betting big on Trump—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro and Michie—were all funded by deposits from Kraken, a U.S.-based crypto exchange, according to Arkham. They behave in a similar fashion, systematically placing frequent bets on Trump and stepping up the size of their bets at the same time, Arkham found. The oldest of the accounts was created in June, while the newest was created this month.
    The accounts have plowed most of their money into straightforward bets on Trump’s winning the presidency, but they have also put millions of dollars into bets that he will win such swing states as Pennsylvania, as well as long-shot bets on Trump’s winning the popular vote—smaller side markets also available on Polymarket.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  2. enviroGator

    enviroGator GC Hall of Fame

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    Is this Elon of some other MAGA friendly billionaire putting $30 million in just to create another "it was rigged" argument if he loses?

    Elon is already saying "it is more accurate" as he pumps it.

    It would be peanuts for Elon to blow $30 million.

    We are also seeing a flood of crap polls coming out from the Pubs showing Trump winning easily.

    My spider senses tells me this is fishy.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1